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nilodnayr

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Everything posted by nilodnayr

  1. nilodnayr
    A ,055 IsoD is only good if you are hitting .300. Saying his patience is better than Pierre's is like saying his physique is better than Matt Stairs'.
  2. nilodnayr
    Without looking at the numbers, I'd guess this is where the Astrodome would hurt him most. Great point. Black ink values HRs, RBIs, BA the highest. In 94 and 97, Bagwell finished second in HRs (4 and 6 out of the lead respectively). In 92 he finished 13 RBIs out of the lead and in 97, 5 RBIs out of the lead. If Bagwell came in first in either of those 4, he would then rank as above average. And I'm sure some of the other categories were negatively affected as well.
  3. nilodnayr
    One of the added benefits of bringing in Soriano is it allows the Cubs to permanently scrap the idea of doing the same thing to Pie ie. shoe horning him into the leadoff role. Yes, because we are already putting a middle of the order hitter at leadoff!!! Hooray for idiocy.
  4. nilodnayr
    Dewan, in the Fielding Bible, said Taveras should have won the gold glove in 2005, and Taveras ranks near the top of most advanced metrics. I'm not saying I want him - far from it - if the Cubs trade for him, I'm selling all my tickets again this year - but defense is the one positive he brings. Which would then make perfect sense for Colorado to keep him, since they have the most spacious CF in the big leagues. That's what I don't understand. In Colorado (and to a lesser extent Houston) and a few other ballparks he has value because of his defensive range in CF. He might have the most range of anybody in the NL now. However, if he comes to Wrigley, his biggest asset is mostly wasted, and that just further exposes the things he cannot do with the bat. Yeah, makes about as much sense as signing a fly ball pitcher...ohh crap.
  5. nilodnayr
    Here are two Bill James metrics... The HOF monitor (which calculates how likely, not deserving, a player is of getting into the HOF) rates Bagwell at 149.5. 100 is likely, 130 is a virtual lock. Bagwell ranks 31 in this metric The HOF standards (which measures overall quality of career, rather than outlying outstanding years) rates Bagwell at 59. 50 is the average HOF. Bagwell ranks 78 in this metric. And another measure are the black and grey ink measures. He is slightly below the average HOF in the black ink (leading statistical categories in your league) and slightly above in the grey ink (appearances in top 10 in statistical categories in your league). In HOF voting, being the face of the organization probably counts for a great deal as well. IMO he should be first ballot.
  6. nilodnayr
    Taveras is a career .284 hitter in his first two years in the majors. He did start to show some patients at the plate last year. Doesn't he have a career BABIP of like .340? Yup In 05 he had a .348 (with a 18.9% LD%) In 06 he had a .332 (with a 17.5% LD%) But he's so fast that he'll always beat his expected BABIP. Except when he doesn't, like Juan Pierre in 2005 and 2006. And his 2002 and 2003 :) And Pierre always had higher LD%.
  7. nilodnayr
    I doubt Hermida goes anywhere anytime soon, unless Florida is overwhelmed with an offer. Well, they know how well our pitching prospects work out for them! And we could provde Jacque, who will provide decent production in RF for cheap (with us picking up some of his salary).
  8. nilodnayr
    Taveras is a career .284 hitter in his first two years in the majors. He did start to show some patients at the plate last year. Doesn't he have a career BABIP of like .340? Yup In 05 he had a .348 (with a 18.9% LD%) In 06 he had a .332 (with a 17.5% LD%)
  9. nilodnayr
    I wonder how available Jeremy Hermida might be. He could be the lefty we covet to play CF. He displayed tremendous patience in the minors and is about to turn 23. I assume the Marlins still like him a lot, but we could obviously significantly sweeten the Benitez pot to make it a possibility.
  10. nilodnayr
    In the soriano thread we talked briefly about how Hawpe's body of work shows that he is slightly worse than Soriano.
  11. nilodnayr
    Expanding on what Tim mentioned, giving the kids a chance to play would give us a better idea of where we need to upgrade next year. I wouldn't have a problem making some trades in this inflated market either (Eyre, Dempster, Jones, Izturis, Ohman, Barrett). However, Hendry's #1 priority is saving his job. If he went into next year with a rotation of something like Z, Hill, Marquis, Miller, Marshall/Prior/Marmol he'd be destroyed by the media even though that rotation wouldn't be much worse than what we have now.
  12. nilodnayr
    The best way to normalize for his abberant year of IBB would be to use his average IBB the prior years (about 6), rather than take them out entirely.
  13. nilodnayr
    How many times has this been quoted and responded to in the past couple days?!? Sorry, I can't answer that question because ive taken the last couple of days off. When I see a thread started by you, its the first one I read.
  14. nilodnayr
    What ever happened to the "I wouldn't trade Hill for Dunn, straight up" Hendry of last offseason?
  15. nilodnayr
    That's what I said. But stronger than what they were doesn't mean good. I'd be shocked if the 2007 doesn't tack on .015-.020 to the 2006 team OBP, which would put them in the upper half of the NL. I'd be shocked if the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in terms of OBP. Soriano is a career .325 DeRosa is a career .331 Sure the addition of Lee may help, but the Cubs haven't done much in the way of addressing a major weakness, yet. A weakness that they've had for the run of the Hendry GMship. And if Soriano is leading off and DeRosa bats in the two slot I don't see a whole lot of improvement in the runs scored department aside from a lot of solo HRs from Soriano. I did the analysis about a month and many threads ago, but the cubs 2006 firstbasemen actually were quite patient thanks to Walker and Lee. The improvement with a full year of lee was nominal.
  16. nilodnayr
    I don't know, Colleti stockpiled middle infielders in the past. I wonder if he will do the same with corner OF's. He already has...Ethier, Gonzo, Kemp, Loney, Marlon Anderson, Repko, Werth
  17. nilodnayr
    Wow, losts of productive conversation here...who is not on Baltimore's 40 man roster that we should be interested in?
  18. nilodnayr
    I'm gonna go out on a limb and say an average outfielder in his early 30s and a few not-so-great pitching prospects are not going to fetch a 25 year old guy who is at least a #2, and maybe a #1 if he puts it all together like he did in 2004. Oh, I doubt they take that deal, but it's a starting point. The bolded looked to be a large if, at times, last season. If he's rumored to be available- why not at least make the call? Jones, Veal, Patterson/Pie and a lower-level pitching prospect probably would be enough. Is it worth that? Maybe. He's darn good. I can't believe that you included Eric in a hypothetical trade. Why not? If EPatt has to move off second his value is severly diminished. Plus hes way overvalued here as it is.
  19. nilodnayr
    Of course, I have to assume Riccardi (or rather his assistant) has done the analyses I've done, so the real question is...what are we missing to make the Jays want to retain him?
  20. nilodnayr
    I'd go to the Dodgers. Crappy management, but at least they have talent. And former Cubs. Vin Scully + Fox Sports West = win. I am in man-love with Carlos Quentin and Chris Young so I pick the Diamondbacks. Love the D'backs, Angels, Dodgers (my fantasy team's name was Logan White's Honkys) systems. The D'backs used to be horribly run (a testament to how great their system is to survive the Sexson debacle), the Angels and Dodgers alternate between horrible and great acquisitions...but after last offseason...I'm a Marlins man.
  21. nilodnayr
    FWIW. I'm on the Church bandwagon, and would like to see him in a Cubs uni We could send Jones to the O's, O's send Lopez and a mid-prospect to the Nats, we send Pie/Marshall/Gallagher/Eric Patterson for Church/John Patterson!!!
  22. nilodnayr
    Actual ERA vs Expected ERA *Adjusting for HRs only 02: 3.69 vs 3.56 03: 4.34 vs 4.19 04: 4.06 vs 4.26 05: 5.56 vs 4.63 (wow) 06: 4.31 vs 3.96 Someone less tired than me can do the analysis of his Actual vs Expected BABIP's affect on BA, but here is the lucky/unlucky analysis Actual vs Expected 02: .241 vs .300 extremely lucky 03: .303 vs .497 outrageously lucky 04: .272 vs .309 very lucky 05: .301 vs .341 very lucky 06: .300 vs .313 slightly lucky
  23. nilodnayr
    Eh, I wouldn't categorize that as smart/stupid, more as a matter of risk preference.
  24. nilodnayr
    MLB reports Gonzo is official to the Dodgers...now what are the Dodgers going to want for Penny? Already Loney is out of a job and Saito and Brox are at the back of their pen. The only thing now would be to include Penny and Ethier in a trade for Manny. Otherwise, I don't see anywhere to upgrade (other than building a time machine and unsigning Pierre and Gonzo).
  25. nilodnayr
    Per jjg's request, another way to normalize for luck other than BABIP is actual HRs vs expected HRs (assuming 10% of flyballs become HRs) Actual vs Expected 02: 15 vs 14 Even 03: 24 vs 22 slightly unlucky 04: 23 vs 26 slightly lucky 05: 26 vs 17 very unlucky 06: 28 vs 23 unlucky Does anyone know how many runs a HR is worth(including extending the inning)? I've seen value somewhere but can't it anywhere. Once someone' posts the value I will finish the analysis of the HR luck factor's impact on Lilly's ERA.
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