nilodnayr

My fear is that the cubs now sign Jennings to an extension. And as I've said before Jennings is the starting pitcher version of DeRosa. I don't think so. Jennings is younger and has a much better past beyond the career year. And, because he's younger that career year is more likely to repeat itself than DeRosa's is. There's no glaring evidence pointing to 2006 being a fluke for Jennings like there is for DeRosa and his BABIP either. While theres nothing like DeRosas BABIP that suggest 06 was a fluke good year, theres nothing that suggests that any of his previous years were fluke bad years. While hes had a much better past A) thats not saying much (its really not saying anything) and B) the extension would be for over twice as much as DeRosas salary.

No, his ERA+ was 120 in 2002 and 2004. It was 109 in 2006. I'm stupid, the rest of the argument still stands.

I think he is worth more than Lilly. Suppan's ERA+ has been over league average 7 out of the last 8 seasons and the one year it was below 100, it was so by only 3 points. Lilly is far more inconsistent, but also has a higher ceiling. Lilly posted an ERA+ of 120 in '02 and '04. Suppan hit 120 in '05 but is consistently between 103-112. On the contrary, Lilly's ERA+ was 80 in '05 and 98 in '03. He has been following the pattern of good in the even years and bad in the odd. Suppan can also throw a ground ball much better than Lilly can. Sup's GB% lives at around 46% while Lilly's is only 35-36% while giving up significantly more flyballs. Lilly will make them miss more often with a higher K total and lower BAA (Suppan is clearly more hittable though not by a lot), but Lilly's flyballs in the NL Central could be dangerous. Wrigley is made for a groundball pitcher like Suppan. Suppan is only one year older than Lilly almost to the day, so age shouldn't be that much of a factor. If their costs are similar, the numbers seem to show an advantage to signing Suppan over Lilly. Edited for stupidity Additionally, in Lilly's 02 when he had the 120 ERA+, his BABIP was about 70 points lower than what his LD% projects. In 04 it was about 40 points lower than LD% projection. His LOB% was also significantly higher than league average (and his other years) in 02 and 04. His peripherals show that 02 and 04 were very much fluke years.

My fear is that the cubs now sign Jennings to an extension. And as I've said before Jennings is the starting pitcher version of DeRosa.

How many games was ol' gimpy able to play last year? Kenny's not a full time player anymore. 129 games. It seems like the only CF options would be Lofton, Lugo or Pie....am I missing someone very very obvious here? Ryan Church or Gabe Gross I would love for the Cubs to get Church, but what happens to Pie, if the Cubs could get Church? He either becomes a 4th OF for a million bucks in 08 or his value gets raised significantly by actually being given a shot and we can trade him to fill a hole.

If we are dealing with Pit on any level, I'd rather have Maholm or Gorzelanny than Jennings...by a lot. Then again, I doubt Pitts has any intentions of dealing with the Cubs directly, anyways, so your point is moot. Yeah because they've never dealt with us before.... I also said that before the threads got merged...obviously we have no one near Hawpe's level (other than Soriano). After the ARam fiasco, I just don't see Pitts dealing any "legit" talent to the Cubs, without the Cubs overpaying...ie for Maholm, it would be Guzman/Gallagher/Patterson. So unless you can get the Rockies to flip Maholm over to the Cubs in this proposed three team trade, then I highly doubt Maholm will ever be available for the Cubs to get. What was the ARam fiasco? Littlefield knew exactly what he was doing when he traded ARAM. Its not like a Karchner for Garland or D-Train for Alphonseca trade (which haven't stopped us from dealing with the sox or marlins). Its ridiculous to think that the pirates wouldn't trade with us if they think it will help their team. That however is where the problem lies...Hawpe and Maholm are by far and away the two best players in this deal.

How many games was ol' gimpy able to play last year? Kenny's not a full time player anymore. 129 games. It seems like the only CF options would be Lofton, Lugo or Pie....am I missing someone very very obvious here? Ryan Church or Gabe Gross

:shock: Put me down! I am down! That could quite possibly be the worst trade I've ever heard (from the Mets standpoint). You really don't have to go very far back to find a worse one in Mets history. Kazmir/Zambrano is the gold standard of stupidity.[/quote] And the MAIN reason why TB is so difficult to talk trade with. Thanks again, Steve Phillips. Probably not, since LaMarr isn't their GM anymore.

If we are dealing with Pit on any level, I'd rather have Maholm or Gorzelanny than Jennings...by a lot. Then again, I doubt Pitts has any intentions of dealing with the Cubs directly, anyways, so your point is moot. Yeah because they've never dealt with us before.... I also said that before the threads got merged...obviously we have no one near Hawpe's level (other than Soriano).

If we are dealing with Pit on any level, I'd rather have Maholm or Gorzelanny than Jennings...by a lot.

Somewhere mentioned the O's young pitching and while Bedard and Loewen are obviously unattainable, I am praying for Penn. I'd prefer him over snelling. Either would be better than Jennings though.

Thats how you get nearly Derrek Lee production for a smidge over one million dollars. Padres are the big winners so far. They should have a walk to the playoffs barring any Manny to an NL West deal and with that rotation could do some damage in the playoffs. Plus they are going to retain walker!

Until Zito signs. If Zito signs for more money than every report and prediction has him signing for. Which could be true, but not definite. No one has Zito at 16.66M

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Seriously, has the market come to this? Suppan/Lilly Comparison Actually if you compare the two, Suppan is pretty even with Lilly (if not better)... Geez, now I know how Lilly had an ERA under 4 in 2002...look at his BABIP and LOB%. Very much out of line with the rest of his career. If Lilly can get 10 or 11M, Suppan definitely should too.

This now makes Carp the games highest paid pitcher (from a luxury tax perspective), does it not? At least until Clemen's decides what he's doing.

I hope we can get Z for less than Soriano $

And no, this is not hypocritical to my last reply. ;) Padilla is a good deal at 4/40-44, and a great deal at 3/30-33.

What CFer is avalable that is left handed and has power assuming Soriano is in RF? Ryan Church!!!! To a lesser extent Gabe Gross.

I've never heard a more inflamatory statement on this board...you better watch out!!! :)

i agree... i would love this... but DEFENSE??? :shock: Not much worse than Murton in LF. Bonds was once a Gold Glove OF, something Murton will never be. I'd trade Murton for a pitcher. I don't think the pitcher you'd get would be equal to the value Murton provides. Bonds also is going to miss 60-70 games, so it would be nice to have Murton to play in those games. Yeah, you gotta keep Murton. Playing so many day games, Bonds is going to need some of those off.

Plus, I wonder if Bonds is pissed about the way the Giants are handling this whole thing and would sign with another team for a reasonable price just to stick it in the Giants face. Not to mention an NL team to prove that he can still play the field.

Plus a 6 man pen means Wuertz would be the odd man out, which would be a travesty.

Pettite's talking about retirement. Wilson hasn't been linked to anyone, so he might have just accepted. The kicker to me is Graffanino, he had interest until the Brew-crew offered him Arb. Now, he's probably just going to accept it from them. But where is the risk in offering either of them? Obviously in Wilson he might have accepted it, that's the risk. Apparently the Yankees don't want him. As far as Pettite, either Houston wants to cut ties or they think they can sign him cheaper than an Arbiter would rule. I don't think the Yanks don't want him. I believe there were earlier reports that the yanks were talking to him. They are definitely in the market for a firstbasemen. Possibly they believe that they could sign him to less than the raise he would have received in arbitration. Which means that he could probably be had for about what he made this year (3.5M).

I'd like him.

His BA fell in 2006, 2004 he did hit 29 HR's, but he is essentially a .260 hitter under 20HR's, he has some versatility playing RF/LF/1B and did catch occassionally until 2004. I would take him as a 25th player on a very good team to platoon him occassionally in those corner spots and have him for emergency as a catcher. A 260 hitter with an IsoD of .100 is a pretty darn good hitter.