nilodnayr

Well once again you are incorrect, his worst month in TX was Sept/Oct 2005. His April 2005 wasn't great, but it wasn't horrible with a 774 OPS, 8 doubles and 5 homers. By as soon as May 8th his OPS was up to 935. And although Spring Training numbers aren't the most valuable, he did have 889 OPS in 20 games. Only people close to the situation probably know how much the injuries affected him, but the guy sat out one game for his April 04 "injury". Want to know how did after he sat out that one game? He went 2/5 in each of the next two games with 2 doubles. He continued to a 7 game hit streak which included 2 more doubles and 2 homers. After two ofer games, he then went 1/4 and then six for freakin six with two doubles. He had another double 2 games later and yet another as well as a HR the day after. In the 14 games after he sat out he had 19 hits, 7 of them were doubles, 3 of them were homers. His OPS INCREASED by 45 points. Yeah, real clear evidence you have there. If you are going to make claims that Soriano's numbers suffered while he was playing through injuries it might be helpful for you to actually look at his numbers. wilkerson sat out only a handful of games in 2005. to what do you attribute his 24 point plummet in OPS+ from the year before? by your logic, it wasn't injury because he kept playing. Way to not address the issue that your point that Sorianos numbers suffered because of his injuries is completely invalid. Soriano fouled a ball off his knee (Wilkerson had bumps and bruises as well, just like most players) and tore his hammy and sat out 6 months. Is that really the same as receiving cortisone shots to try to keep playing even though you need to have shoulder surgery and then end up having shoulder surgery?

Its not a bad idea considering no one in their rotation can last more than 6 innings, many averaging 5 and change IIRC. Also, its great that one team is stocking up on bullpen arms and driving up their price while doing so. Especially when that team really was never a trading partner with us (Eyre ain't gonna get us Miggy). Our arms are looking more and more valuable in this market.

Yes, he was the Nats main CF in 2005.

Oh no! Now he definitely wont want to come here. Chicago, the home of his baby mama and Jerry Springer...thats a recipe for disaster!

Well once again you are incorrect, his worst month in TX was Sept/Oct 2005. His April 2005 wasn't great, but it wasn't horrible with a 774 OPS, 8 doubles and 5 homers. By as soon as May 8th his OPS was up to 935. And although Spring Training numbers aren't the most valuable, he did have 889 OPS in 20 games. Only people close to the situation probably know how much the injuries affected him, but the guy sat out one game for his April 04 "injury". Want to know how did after he sat out that one game? He went 2/5 in each of the next two games with 2 doubles. He continued to a 7 game hit streak which included 2 more doubles and 2 homers. After two ofer games, he then went 1/4 and then six for freakin six with two doubles. He had another double 2 games later and yet another as well as a HR the day after. In the 14 games after he sat out he had 19 hits, 7 of them were doubles, 3 of them were homers. His OPS INCREASED by 45 points. Yeah, real clear evidence you have there. If you are going to make claims that Soriano's numbers suffered while he was playing through injuries it might be helpful for you to actually look at his numbers.

A kid? He was 28-29 yrs old when he played in Texas. He also played for the Hiroshima Carp and was raised in their Dominican Republic Baseball Academy. Yeah, those Japanese aren't known to be strict or to mess with your mind. This argument is just getting ridiculous.

Are you referring to March/April 2005?

OPS+ adjusts for park factors. Yankee stadium plays a bit to the advantage of pitchers, Ameriquest significantly to the advantage of hitters. Half his games are played at home so arguing the park factors of the AL West hurt him is pretty ridiculous. It would be interesting to do a study about the difference in pitching between the AL East and the AL West, rather than just make blanket claims. I'm guessing the difference is minimal if any. For Soriano's history I used KFFL. They mention that he sat out the one game, but that is it. According to the website you posted looks like he hit a rough spot around then, but he still consistently put up low to mid 800 OPS throughout 2004. Its difficult to say how big of an "injury" he had as he only sat out one game and he healed. To compare it to Wilkerson who had to receive cortisone shots and have surgery is laughable at best. Early in 05, he must have been OK... Guys who are playing through "injuries" don't kick trash cans and laundry carts for getting scratched for a game.

Supposedly his shoulder will be healthy going into spring training. Hes played the last two years with it being useless, trying to play through the pain and having cortisone shots. if Soriano had injuries that he played through in 04-05, would you excuse his drop in OPS? it's something that hasn't been discussed much around here. now Soriano was by no means my first choice for the Cubs, but the fact is the biggest ammunition that his critics have is his 04-05 seasons when he switched to a different division, Showalter gave him hell, and he played through injuries. Switching to different divisions? Seriously? Well he switched leagues last year and that didn't seem to hurt him. Plus he switched from the tough AL East to the less tough AL West. I've never heard anyone use the switching divisions excuse, thats hilarious. I don't know if Showalter gave him hell, I think Showalter gives everyone hell, but thats probably about on par with Torre and Piniella. And for the "playing through injuries" I assume you are talking about when Soriano tore his hamstring mid-sept in 2004. Well he actually didn't play another game the rest of the season. So there goes your theory for 04. He had a clean bill of health going into 05. He did reaggrivate it in June and sat out a few games. If playing through injuries was the case, then from this point on you would have seen his numbers go down. He had an 873 OPS at this point. However, he actually game back an hit better initially, reaching a high of 931 a few weeks later, ending June at 870. He ended July at 856, ending August at 852. He really struggled the last two weeks in Sept. There were no reports about the hammy nagging him or anything. Your points would hold water if they were actually true.

Supposedly his shoulder will be healthy going into spring training. Hes played the last two years with it being useless, trying to play through the pain and having cortisone shots.

Tough it out and JD should never be used in the same sentence. You know, besides the 3 years he played with a bum knee in STL.

Throw a lot of money at him and hope he bites? With the guaranteed contracts in the NFL and taking min 6 years to get to free agency, hes going to have to turn down like a sure 20M to play for the cubs. the NFL has guaranteed contracts? I didn't think they did. I think he meant more that if he's a 1st round pick, he's going to receive so much money up front that it's going to be hard to take the smaller money in baseball. It's not going to be nearly that high though-for example, Addai of the Colts signed a 5 year 11 million dollar deal in the 30th spot this year-that should be similar to what he will get in the NFL. Yes, that is what I meant, this is the thread of me being wrong. :lol: But the point is, that Samardijza would have to pitch in the majors for 5 or 6 years, not to mention how long he would have to pitch in the minors before he'd make the same money he'd get right away going to the NFL.

I go to about 25 games a year and before they put the pitch counts on the foul line scoreboards, I used to count pitches just as much as I counted Old Style cups. Thanks to technology, now I just have to count Old Style cups :lol:

Since when could Theriot play CF? Since he reminded me of Ryan Freel last year. Hell, they had Soriano and now Lugo there and they haven't done it either. Or get Brady Clark, I don't care. The point is how come no one's talking about Lofton; he's an ideal one year guy. Lofton would be a great option for the cubs. He would probably put up a similar OPS+ to Jones, trading some power for OBP. He would also most likely hit second pushing DeRosa to the bottom of the order, which is a good idea. He would also be slightly cheaper, and then hopefully we could trade Jones, something of value. However, it all depends on if he will sign a 1 yr deal and how much he likes Chicago.

well, apparently you are annoyed by them so that's why I thought that. my apologies nilo - most people who criticize moneyball haven't read the book and you suggestion that the A's don't scout certainly suggests that. I can see how it came across that way because I said "players", but Navin is right, by players I was thinking Jeremy Brown. Again, I'm probably remembering this incorrectly, but I believe there was a passage on them coveting Brown based on the #s he was putting up and then some one seeing him play and that he was a fat guy who couldnt move or something like that. And now I realize that if they knew he was a fat guy who couldn't move, then the must have seen him!

Soriano outproduced Hawpe in OPS+ in their age 25, 26, and 27 MLB seasons: Hawpe 2004, age 25 - 72 OPS+, 118 plate appearances, Hawpe 2005, age 26 - 88 OPS+, 351 PA Hawpe 2006, age 27 - 122 OPS+, 575 PA Soriano 2001, age 25 - 92 OPS+, 614 PA Soriano 2002, age 26 - 131 OPS+, 741 PA Soriano 2003, age 27 - 128 OPS+, 734 PA Also, Soriano outperformed Hawpe in OPS+ during each of the past three years: Soriano 2004, age 28 - 98 OPS+, 658 PA Soriano 2005, age 29 - 110 OPS+, 682 PA Soriano 2006, age 30 - 132 OPS+, 728 PA Hawpe sat against LHPs last season, too, which helped his OPS more than a little. He has a severe RHP/LHP split. I don't think it's necessary to look at minor league numbers to settle the debate. I'm not thrilled with A) Soriano's contract, B) the possibility of Soriano playing center field, or C) the fact that he's going to lead-off. But there's no doubt in my mind that he's a significantly more productive hitter than Brad Hawpe. IMO instead of comparing Hawpe and Soriano on an age basis, because Soriano was a year ahead of Hawpe's track, compare then on level basis. So, by that, you can compare Sorianos first full year in the majors he put up 92 OPS+ vs Hawpe's first nearly full year in the majors where he put up 88 OPS+. In their second year Soriano put up 131 vs Hawpe's 122. So, OPS+ shows Soriano is only slightly better than Hawpe.

No, Leon is the father. Leron Lee (former major leaguer) is the uncle. I stand corrected.

He's been doing complicated statistical baseball analysis for longer than I've been alive and I could have told you that! Then why didn't you? I have! Read all my posts in the last month. :lol:

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%. I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him. I never said his IsoD is great, far from my point. You said his OBP had dropped, and I showed that his IsoD had increased. The drop in OBP and SLG was due to a drop in BA, which is due to a drop in BABIP, which is partly due to a drop in LD%.

Huh? Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Villenuva, Vargas is still pretty good. It leaves the Brewers with just two guys who started 30 or more times last year. I guess only reliable starter was an exaggeration, but it does weaken their pitching staff. The next highest was Sheets with 17 starts. Yeah, but Davis was probably going to be the odd man out after this season anyway. They just have too many young starting pitchers not far away from the majors. Davis is a FA after this year.

I said "If I remember Moneyball correctly"...meaning, I read the book 3 years ago and was unsure if I remembered correctly or not. And thanks, it was Jeremy Brown I was thinking of but couldn't remember. Reading comprehension is a wonderful thing.

No, actually I think OPS+ is a much better way to guage comparison, I just don't know of a website other than the minor league splits from the brewcrew guy that shows minor league OPS+, and I think he only started doing it in 05 or 06. Major league OPS+ for both have already been stated. If there is a website for minor league OPS+, I would love to know. I do know Col. Springs inflates power a ton, so you are right his 652 slg needs to be adjusted big time. I don't know about their other parks, but he never dipped below 500 OPS in any of his other seasons. And we all know that this last year, Denver hasn't been the hitters heaven it used to be. Where did Soriano out produce Hawpe in straight OPS on several levels at a younger age? Soriano was a year younger at all ages...in AA, he outproduced Hawpe by 23 points. In AAA, Hawpe outproduced him by 245 points (col springs). Rookie year, Hawpe outporduced him by 17 points. Soph year, Hawpe outproduced him by 19 points. Where are you getting your numbers from?!?!?!?

I don't have the link, but Hendry said about a week ago that they would not go for another long term contract in the OF. Also, we did promise Soriano that he would only play one position, meaning that he HAS to play RF, if we plan on eventually bringing Pie up to play CF. Outside of Wells and Andruw, are their any other CFs, that will be FAs next offseason who can outproduce Jones? Unfortunately, I don't think Hendry is smart enough to buy low on Crisp and deal him if/when Pie is ready to supplant him.

Does it make me stupid that I played the game for 16 years of my life and don't have a clue as to what the hell y'all are talking about? What the crap is WARP?? it doesn't make you stupid, it makes you ignorant. How is he ignorant? Most of us, I'm assuming, have played baseball on a competitive level at least a couple of years in our lifetimes. I don't see how it's ignorant for some of us to not understand what exactly "WARP" is. And what Mizzou said is right. It seems like people focus more on stats than they do the actual game. I have no problem with people using stats to make their judgment on a player, but I also think it's wrong for people who use those stats to flat out criticize people who don't use them. For example, by saying that they are "ignorant" and that "you don't know what you're talking about" when you don't use those stats. Do you know what "ignorant" means? I'm discovering quickly that most people don't. Yeah, I know what ignorant means. Here are some examples that I found on the web: uneducated in the fundamentals of a given art or branch of learning; lacking knowledge of a specific field; "she is ignorant of quantum mechanics"; "he is musically illiterate" uneducated in general; lacking knowledge or sophistication; "an ignorant man"; "nescient of contemporary literature"; "an unlearned group incapable of understanding complex issues"; "exhibiting contempt for his unlettered companions" Basically backing up my belief of what the word means. I still think that it's an attack, but I can see how you can say otherwise. I think that's the difference. The literal definition of the word ignorant is not a bad one. However, the connotations it has in today's society are so negative. Many words have extra connotations to them that are added even beyond the definition. To me as well, calling someone ignorant is a grave insult. However, I can perfectly understand as well that sometimes when people say that they don't mean it as an insult. However, the word is used that way so frequently though and that connotation is so firmly attached that it is hard to tell when it is being used without the insult attached. I like to say "you are ignorant, as in ingoring XYZ", that makes it clear that Im not saying you are stupid, I'm saying your just haven't taken something into consideration. Those who do not use stats, facts, etc. to evaluate players are being ignorant. Those who draft players without actually watching them play (IIR a player in Moneyball correctly) are being ignorant as well.

I don't necesarily disagree, but Hawpe has put up a nice 122 OPS+ once. Soriano has put up OPS+ in excess of 128 three times. last year I was Chad Tracy goofy, but his 2006 wised me up a little bit, ya know what I mean? 1) The guy has only played one really full year in the majors. 2)I'd be willing to bet Hawpe has put up OPS+ >122 5 of his 7 professional years and that Sori hasn't done that in his 10 professional years (including Japan). 1) I have no idea why you are directing this at me. I was merely pointing out that the other posted used what is at best incorrect stats to compare two players and at worst intentionally misleading stats to compare the two players. 2) you compounded the problem with misleading facts of your own. 'ten years of professional.' what is that? use an age based basis of comparison at the major league level. I have no problem with that kind of comparison, but to build up your point with a flimsy comparison like you did is ludicrous, misleading, and gets nobody anywhere. Soriano has spent 6 full seasons in the major leagues beginning at age 25. Hawpe has spent 2 full seasons in the major leagues, the first as a platoon and last year as someone who sat alot v. lefties, beginning at age 26. the comparison is what Hawpe will do over the next four years at the major league level. It was directed at you because you said Hawpe has put up a 122 OPS+ once in his career...well hell, hes only played one full season, how many good OPS+ ML seasons do you want him to have?!?!?!? And you accuse me of using misleading facts. Pot, meet kettle. If you are going to compare a guy whos been in the league for 6 full years with a guy whos had a cup of coffee, 3/4 of a year, and a full year, you need to look at previous numbers as well. Hawpe produced at nearly every level he has played at. So to say hes put up 122 OPS+ only once is just plain ignorant, as in, you are ignoring his minor league numbers. If you want to compare on an age/level basis, then fine, I'll do that. NOTE: From first year American professional year using stats from level which had majority of ABs. Age:Level:OPS Soriano 23:AA:864 24:AAA:791 25:ML:736 26:ML:879 27:ML:863 28:ML:808 29:ML:821 30:ML:911 Hawpe 21:A-:900 22:A:869 23:A+:1034 24:AA:841 25:AAA:1036 26:ML:753 27:ML:898 So, if your point is to show that Hawpe's 900 OPS in 2006 is supported much better by his previous body of work (3 previous years of 900 or > OPS) than Soriano's 900 OPS in 2006 (ZERO previous years of 900 or > OPS, then cograts. Sori obviously has the advantage in ML experience, but the name of the game is projecting into the future, and theres nothing in their careers that shows Soriano is going to be soooo much better than Hawpe.