nilodnayr

FWIW, if you scroll down in the KFFL link you will see that Dec 4, 2005, the Trib reported the cubs were interested in Wilkerson.

His shoulder got destroyed. He was even playing with it all jacked up in Washington. KFFL He had shoulder surgery in August and should be ready for spring training.

Are those numbers adjusted for park factors? And color me uneducated but what evidence is there that supports the idea that a lower BABIP isn't caused by the types of pitches the pitcher throws? I'm asking. It would stand to reason that the less deception a pitcher employs, the easier it would be for a batter to get a good swing on a pitched ball thus hitting it more crisply and improving the likelihood of it being safely hit in play. Greater deception could cause a pitcher to have a lower BABIP than some others. But in order to rule out luck entirely one pitcher would have to have a consistently lower BABIP than the average. When I checked, Zito's BABIP was consistently lower than Schmidt's. Could that be due solely to park factors? If its not due entirely to park factors, Zito can't be simply luckier than Schmidt 5 out of 6 seasons, can he? I do not believe any of those #s are park adjusted. However, if you were to adjust for park factors, Schmidt would look even better compared to Zito. BABIP can be controlled to an extent (by certain players), however as you can see by the graphs, it is not consistent year to year. Zito has had 50 point swings in BABIP most years hes pitched. Has his delivery somehow been deceptive some years, yet not deceptive others? Look at the king of deceptive delivery Dontrelle Willis

What do you mean? How does signing a new leadoff hitter mean that they have to sign Bonds? Because it means that they are going to actually try to compete. And in order to do so, they absolutely have to have Bonds back.

He's been doing complicated statistical baseball analysis for longer than I've been alive and I could have told you that!

? Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006? PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers. I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season. Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage. And all of that OBP and SLG drop was because of batting average drop. His IsoP and IsoD are actually better in 06 than 04 and 05. Yes, his LD% has dropped very slightly, but I think that only accounts for part of his BABIP drop. ARAM's BABIP was his worst since 2002.

Because when Soriano steals a bag, it's really hurting our offense! :roll: That's as silly a response as "Because when Soriano strikes out, it's really helping out offense! :roll: " Neither of these statements have anything to do with what he posted. try harder. He obviously didn't understand what I meant by that. I subscribe to the feeling having a nagging threat on the bases clogs a pitchers mind. If you or he do not agree with that, please don't mock with your holier than though attitute and talk to posters like they are dumb just because they beleive something other than what you THINK you know is true. I used to subscribe to this theory as well. But check out these analyses courtesy of THT Part1 Part 2

wasn't Hendry's only promise that he would put Soriano at one position and keep him there? That is correct. And although Bruce said that Sori is planned for RF, he did leave it open depending on who they acquire (or don't acquire). So he definitely could end up in CF.

I don't necesarily disagree, but Hawpe has put up a nice 122 OPS+ once. Soriano has put up OPS+ in excess of 128 three times. last year I was Chad Tracy goofy, but his 2006 wised me up a little bit, ya know what I mean? 1) The guy has only played one really full year in the majors. 2)I'd be willing to bet Hawpe has put up OPS+ >122 5 of his 7 professional years and that Sori hasn't done that in his 10 professional years (including Japan).

The cubs had 67 walks from the firstbasemen last year (and don't forget some of that was DLee himself). DLee typically gets about 80ish a season. So he adds about 15 walks. Nowhere near half or most of 126. Obviously not having him in the lineup made a huge difference, but not really to our IsoD, which was not horrible (.071). DLee has had the following IsoD for the cubs: 2006: .082 2005: .083 2004: .078 A full season of DLee is not going to solve our walk issues...sorry. yes, but the guy getting alot of the walks in place of DLee was the guy who should have been getting walks as the Cubs second baseman. Perez, Hairston, Cedeno, Bynum, Womack = 347 abs, 16 BBs as secondbaseman. not enough to make up the difference, but another chip into the walk crisis. edit perhaps a better way to illustrate my point is the Cubs 1B and 2B combined for 115 walks last year. Lee would predictably have had 85-90. And DeRosa is another 45-50. So that accounts for a net gain of probably 20-30 walks. So we still need 100 more walks to get to middle of the pack. If we added Lugo that'd be another net gain of 30 walks. Although I think looking at walks alone is myopic.

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning. I think he was purposefully making himself look ignorant to get a rise out of us.

I apologize for my fan graph crack binge, but heres a Zito/Schmidt comparison. Fan Graph Looks like Schmidt is better than Zito in most categories and Zito is more depending on BABIP for good seasons.

Throw a lot of money at him and hope he bites? With the guaranteed contracts in the NFL and taking min 6 years to get to free agency, hes going to have to turn down like a sure 20M to play for the cubs.

Stupid Giants, they should just blow it up. Now the HAVE to sign Bonds.

But that isn't a source. It's just Rotoworld's personal speculation and they are very often wrong when it comes to that. Rotoworld should only be used for their black print and almost all blue print should be ignored. If you follow the link Phil Rodgers (I know) mentions Boras possibly waiting for the Cubs to "ante up" before the Red Sox sign Drew. It won't happen, but I wish it would! Yeah, unfortunately I put a lot more stock in Bruce's word here than a one liner at the bottom of a Rogers article (or any amount of his text anywhere in the article).

Well the difference is, of course, that we'll have Soriano for 2 years more than the Astros will have C Lee. If they both produce like this for 4 more years, well then the Astros only have 2 decline years to deal with, while we have 4. Of course, if we can win a World Series in those productive years, I'll manage to get over it. I should also think that Soriano's skills will decline less steeply, if only b/c he appears to keep himself in better shape than Lee. However, conversely, Soriano depends on speed for his game, which obviously declines with age, whereas Lee does not.

One stood for the National Anthem and one didn't? Book it. Trick question...Ditka is God.

To back up JJG's ARAM had bad luck claim Thats a pretty rough start of the season. Looks like his BABIP didn't even reach 200 until a month or so into the season.

To back up JJG's ARAM had bad luck claim Thats a pretty rough start of the season. Looks like his BABIP didn't even reach 200 until a month or so into the season.

They already have the white version of Jacque Jones and they plan on trading or benching him. But the black version is cheaper! Maybe they want some relievers? If we can trade some relievers for a guy who hit 35 HRs last year, can play defensive premium postitions, is making barely over league minimum and is under control for the next three years, then whoever takes over for selig should just contract the Brewers. George Bell? I assume you are referring to us trading George Bell to the White Sox for Ken Patterson and Sosa. At the time George Bell was one of the highest paid players in the league, was a DH level defensively, hit 25 HRs, was 6 years older than Hall, production was declining, and so on and so forth. Forgive me if I am missing the comparison. No, I'm referring to this guy: http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/8219/da24zg9.gif You see, sometimes people do things that make no sense. Novoa for Hall sounds pretty nonsensical to me. We've got a chance, my friend. You could have just said V. Zambrano/Scott Kazmir Is my name Dayn Perry? I don't know, do you know the difference between correlation and causation?

They already have the white version of Jacque Jones and they plan on trading or benching him. But the black version is cheaper! Maybe they want some relievers? If we can trade some relievers for a guy who hit 35 HRs last year, can play defensive premium postitions, is making barely over league minimum and is under control for the next three years, then whoever takes over for selig should just contract the Brewers. George Bell? I assume you are referring to us trading George Bell to the White Sox for Ken Patterson and Sosa. At the time George Bell was one of the highest paid players in the league, was a DH level defensively, hit 25 HRs, was 6 years older than Hall, production was declining, and so on and so forth. Forgive me if I am missing the comparison. No, I'm referring to this guy: http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/8219/da24zg9.gif You see, sometimes people do things that make no sense. Novoa for Hall sounds pretty nonsensical to me. We've got a chance, my friend. You could have just said V. Zambrano/Scott Kazmir

what is your point? how about this Lee 04 OPS 125, IsoD 61 05 OPS 110, IsoD 59 06 OPS 125, IsoD 55 Soriano 04 OPS 98, IsoD 44 05 OPS 110, IsoD 41 06 OPS 135, IsoD 74 (go ahead and take away the IBBs, it's still a vast improvement in an area Lee is getting worse at) not sure why K/BB ratio is in the discussion. we're not talking about pitchers and I thought the general view was strikeouts are not a strong consideration amongst those with the sabr mindset. Just presenting the facts that Soriano and Lees production is a lot more similar than people think. The K/BB tab on the comparison was just random, I was scrolling through all of them looking at the differences. I really don't get your point though. So you are saying that Soriano had one fluke patience year because he was hitting in front of Felipe Lopez/Jose Vidro/Royce Clayton and Nick Johnson/Jose Vidro? If you do isolate out his IBB from 16 to his normal 5 or so, then that takes his IsoD down 10 points give or take a few. So on the whole you are saying that his patience is worse than Lee's, right?

They already have the white version of Jacque Jones and they plan on trading or benching him. But the black version is cheaper! Maybe they want some relievers? If we can trade some relievers for a guy who hit 35 HRs last year, can play defensive premium postitions, is making barely over league minimum and is under control for the next three years, then whoever takes over for selig should just contract the Brewers. George Bell? I assume you are referring to us trading George Bell to the White Sox for Ken Patterson and Sosa. At the time George Bell was one of the highest paid players in the league, was a DH level defensively, hit 25 HRs, was 6 years older than Hall, production was declining, and so on and so forth. Forgive me if I am missing the comparison.

Leon Lee is DLee's uncle, not Dad. And I think we've seen a return to emphasis on the Pac Rim, so at least we got that working for us. Everything else, I agree. How in a draft where you have what, 2 picks in the first 5 rounds, do you take a pitcher who you are 99.9999999% sure will play in the NFL?

Carlos Lee's OPS+ for the last three years 125 110 123 Sorianos OPS+ for the last three years 132 110 98 Fan Graph Comparison