Obviously this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But, my guess is that they would wait, that five starts and 27 innings of 2.0-ERA pitching by Guzman would not be enough to necessitate that he be brought into the rotation. My guess is that if the big-league team is still swimming along reasonably, that they would not make a switch that quickly. (If Marquis was 6.5, maybe, but not at 5.10). In my view a key date is June 15 (IIRC), the date I believe when Marquis can first be traded. I think that even if they do realize that Guzman is safer and superior as well as much cheaper, I'd think they may wish to stay the course until Marquis becomes movable. If you pull him on May 1 and torpedo any chance of being able to trade him, that might be a problem. But if he can get through June 10 with a .500-ish record and an ERA in the 4.3-5.3 range, perhaps you can unload all of his contract, and perhaps even get some value in return, who knows. One other key is the health not only of the rotation but also the bullpen. As Time alluded to, it might be that Guzman would come up first as a reliever, and get a chance to settle in and prove himself there. It might also be that if a RH reliever gets hurt (Kerry? Dempster? Howry?), that it might provide an excuse for moving Marquis there. (He's got big-league experience in relief, Guzman doesn't. We're not down on Jason, we just think he can help us more in relief than in rotation...). I'm thinking way back to when Kerry broke in. Terry Mullholland was in the rotation, and Kerry pitched well in Iowa. But it was the injury to forgettable reliever Bob Patterson that really triggered Kerry's recall, because that provided a good reason to move Mulholland from rotation to relief. I could envision that kind of thing happening with Marquis. And that sort of scenario would not necessitate that Marquis be stinking, or that you're trashing him or his trade value. If he's doing fine in relief, somebody else might view him as a guy who could help their rotation and be willing to take on his contract. Hendry has claimed other teams were interested in paying him comparably to what the Cubs paid him. That may be false. And if Marquis is again as pathetic as last year and as most board-posters seem to expect this year, the interest in him come June may be way less than it was in December. But if he's pitching at a competent if unexceptional level, his market interest may be as high or higher than it was in December. The key is getting him to June with reasonable trade value. A) June 15th is the date a player signed that year can be traded WITHOUT their permission, he can be traded before then with his permission. B)Unless Angel is pitching no nos, it will take Marquis pitchingquite poorly to knock him out of the rotation C) If B happens, as you said who the hell is going to want to trade for a crappy pitcher whos owed 7M per for the next 3 years? D)If Marquis is pitching average and Angel is pitching well, I think the cubs value the security of having contingency plans in case of injury moreso than the $ saved by trading Marquis.