nilodnayr

What exactly is the hold up, then? The same holdup as Lee and Ramirez-negotiations. Hendry is trying to get the best deal he can, and sometimes that involves not locking up the player immediately. Plus, there are always a million details to work out. If Hendry had lowballed them, don't you think Z would have come out with that to get sympathy? They are probably a couple million and a year or two apart right now, and they are playing a little chicken and seeing which side breaks first. A) If thats the case, then how did Sori get done in like 0.2 nanoseconds B) Hendry has said that even on the arbi case they are significantly far apart and even thinks it might go before the arbitrator. If they arent even within a couple million on a one year deal, how can they be within a couple million on a 7 year deal? I would say you are taking about as extreme of an optimistic viewpoint you can take. Sori got done because the team was desperate-they knew if they didn't pay it, somebody would. Z might give them a slight hometown discount only because he doesn't know what the other offers for him might be (he can estimate, but not like Soriano could) and there is still over a month till opening day. I haven't seen those Hendry comments on the arbitration-it's possible the club may go to arbitration because if the club wins it, that will be a big point in their favor in contract negotiations. I have no idea if they are close or not-all I know is that Hendry did not just forget about Z-he has the money, it's just his decision if he is going to give Z what he asks or if he decides it is too much money and either trades him or lets him walk after the season. Really? Z said he wants Zito money, nothing more, nothing less. Its quite clear that other teams would pay him that if not more. That is obviously a hometown discount. Other teams cannot talk to Z, but he has to believe that. Sori was a FA and was talking to other teams, but we had to blow their offers out of the water for him to sign so quickly. Its never good to go to abritration with your players as you have to make your case that hes not worth what he is asking for, it doesnt make for good relations. Especially if you want to resign him long term. Can you think of any player that went to arbitration before his walk year and signed him long term?

What exactly is the hold up, then? The same holdup as Lee and Ramirez-negotiations. Hendry is trying to get the best deal he can, and sometimes that involves not locking up the player immediately. Plus, there are always a million details to work out. If Hendry had lowballed them, don't you think Z would have come out with that to get sympathy? They are probably a couple million and a year or two apart right now, and they are playing a little chicken and seeing which side breaks first. A) If thats the case, then how did Sori get done in like 0.2 nanoseconds B) Hendry has said that even on the arbi case they are significantly far apart and even thinks it might go before the arbitrator. If they arent even within a couple million on a one year deal, how can they be within a couple million on a 7 year deal? I would say you are taking about as extreme of an optimistic viewpoint you can take.

I found the ZIPS projections from last year-here are a few notables: Williams-165.0 IP, 4.36 ERA, 104K/62BB Guzman-41.0 IP, 4.39 ERA, 28K/10BB Ryu-155.0 IP, 4.59 ERA, 110K/46BB Mitre-141.0 IP, 4.72 ERA, 111K/55BB Nolasco-154.0 IP, 4.73 ERA, 143K/56BB Hill-130.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 156K/65BB Brownlie-110.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 110K/67BB Koronka-151.0 IP, 5.01 ERA, 110K/67BB Marshall, Marmol, and Mateo were not listed. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/ I'll post the others if/and as I find them. Edit-BTW, Zips was found to be the most accurate system for pitchers last year-based on this study: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/2006_projection_results/ The differences in the rs for the pitching projections really aren't significant. CHONE fell below Marcel (thats gotta hurt), but I think he made a lot of upgrades in the offseason.

You're good. Back in the 16th round Rocket took Molina, acknowledging that AJ was the better pick, but he has standards. Regardless of how far they fall I would never take Edmonds or AJ. I wouldn't be able to take enough showers to not feel dirty.

I still think there is no way in the world that the twins will ever trade Satana. He is the best pitcher in the majors and he's still decently young. I don't think they would trade for younger talent with a team that is still decently young. Although for Z im skeptical of us netting a top notch bevy of talent back, I'm fairly certain the Twins can pretty much name their package if they want to trade Santana either before the deadline this season or next offseason. They should defenitely get significantly more than the 2 picks they would get by letting him walk in two years. If the Twins don't think they can resign him (and they shouldn't be able to) then I dont think there is a way in the world that the twins DON'T trade Santana. Yes, the twins are young right now, but I actually think that tips the balances towards trading Santana. Morneau and Cuddyer answered as sure things last year, we'll know one way or the other on Bartlett, Punto, and Kubel after this year. Similarly with their pitching, we should know more about the future of Garza and Bonser. Another year will answer a lot of the unknowns this young team has and allow the twins to focus on filling their needs in a Santana trade.

I'd give him mediocre status with his .330 OBP if he had something of value to offer other than speed. He doesn't, therefore he's horrible. Poor routes to fly balls, weenie arm, no power and gets caught stealing way too much for my liking. All told, horrible is a pretty good definition. He wasn't always horrible. He was serviceable in 2003 and 2004. Mediocre would be another good terminology. LA can have him and he won't be missed. If he wore #43, it would be a thing of beauty. I also don't mind not having him, but in an ideal situation I would want a better leadoff hitter than Soriano thats all im saying. I would be willing to drop Jones if we could get a guy like lofton even though hes old to play center be good defensively and could make room for Soriano back later in the order for some more pop. if soriano has a year like last, i wouldn't mind sending him up to the plate most often. you like to maximize the PA of your better hitters. you'd also like to get them runners on in front of them, but i still like the idea of soriano getting a lot of PA's. I think optimally Lee would be the leadoff hitter, but I can't remember.

Actually, he probably is. PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor. CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

I don't see the Sox finishing below 3rd since the 2007 Twins lost Radke to retirement and Liriano to injury. I'd expect the Tigers to repeat, followed by the Indians, Sox, Twins and Royals. Bonser, Garza, and possibly Perkins and Baker might surprise you (they also might not). Radke was average last year and although Liriano was amazing, it was only for half the year in the rotation. The season might depend on how quick Gardenhire gives the heave-ho to Ortiz and Silva if they suck.

While the Dodgers aren't in as enviable of a position as their cross town buddies are in terms of the rotation, they are one of the handful of teams that are somewhat close considering they just nabbed arguably the top starter on the market and have all their starters under contract or with options for at least the next two years. Yankees are in a similar situation, although they are insane and can be reasonably certain 40% of their rotation (Moose, Pettitte) will be retired in 2 years and Pavano will likely be long gone by then. You never know with the Yankees though, so I wouldn't count them out. I don't think they would deal Hughes though and if hes not included, no deal. Like I said before, I think the mets are a perfect match. Glavine, Il Duche, Maine, Perez, Park make a fine back end of the rotation, but theres no one there to lead. Pedro is targeting July or August. The Mets spent a ton of money in recent years and see themselves as needing to be perennial pennant favorites. No matter how hard they can hit the ball, I can't see that happening with that rotation. They have the players to deal that wouldn't hurt their ML team (Heilman, Milledge, Pelfry, Humber, Martinez, Gomez) AND more importantly (at least to them) the NEED of Zambrano. I would definitely want LA, LAA, and NYY to be in the conversation, but I have to believe our best shot would be with the Mets.

Hmmmm.....way fewer ABs in '06. Was he possibly nursing an injury? I don't think you are looking at his line correctly. He had 120 ABs in 05 and 199 in 06. And 199 ABs at short-season A-ball is about 2/3 of the season if not more. He played in 56 out of Princeton's 64 games...second highest total on the team.

Hmmmm.....way fewer ABs in '06. Was he possibly nursing an injury? I don't think you are looking at his line correctly. He had 120 ABs in 05 and 199 in 06.

Even then, moving Jones and one of the relievers for 2 years of budget flexibility to sign Big Z gives us two seasons of "win now" teams with Z at the helm of our rotation. This seems more important than keeping Jones and Dempster or Eyre who are not "deal breakers" in making us a contender... That gives us two seasons to win and make the bloated 09" budget more justifiable to the Trib. The issue though isn't budget inflexibility now. We are actually a bit under budget right now. There would be no budgetary need to move a contract that expires before 2009. If we really want to win now then we should keep Eyre and Jones.

Lopez strikes out an awful lot. I wonder if he goes deep into counts and thats why his BB and K rates are high. I dont know about his 2005 batted ball info, but I'm guessing he hit a lot more fly balls and line drives in 05 than 06. He had nearly as many XBHs in 05 as 06 in only about 60% of the PAs and was labeled a power threat. In 06 though, he only had 32% FBs and, his LD% was only 16%. His BABIP was 367 as opposed to a team average 320 and league average 314. An increase in grounders may account for some of that, but I thought I read he wasn't especially fast. If his 05 and 06 were switched, we'd all be singing a much different tune, but its never good to see a player regress like this while repeating levels.

Why is that? Was that where he fired a fastball through a resting bird and got into trouble with the law? Because now the state of florida has more cubs pitching prospects than the cubs actually do.

Brian, lets become Brewer's fans!!! But you have to drive me up to Milwaukee. I'm never in any condition to drive back after games up there. Hell, with all the renovations, it will probably be quicker than taking the L to Wrigley. I heard the red line travel times will double on the Northside starting in April. It will be rough...going to cut into my pre-game Murphys/Pianoman time :cry:

Hometown discounts shouldn't be expected. They should be considered as a pleasant surprise if they happen. Like Z has said, this is a business, and this is his best chance at free agency. Pitchers @ 25 may only get one big contract. I understand he can live off it for the rest of his life, but for him is to get it while he can. It's not a business. Z's grandkids are set for life irregardless of the hometown discount. The Cubs organization gave Z the chance to play pro ball and developed him to be the pitcher he is today. It's pretty selfish to demand FA market value after all that. If we're going to pay FA market value for a pitcher, let's get Santana. Z is pretty mediocre alongside that guy. Oswalt gave the hometown discount. Carpenter gave the hometown discount. Carpenter didn't even have the history with the Cards org that Carlos does with the Cubs. Thanks for the love, Carlos. :roll: Go back to Russia, Commie. Kidding, kidding. Seriously though, most "home town discounts" are little more than risk aversion. Take Carp for example. His signed his new contract while he had a year left on his contract and an option year. Thats two more years of heavy workload on a freak of a reconstructed shoulder. Sure, when he signed the new contract he had made about $20M in his career and was guaranteed another 8 (07 + buy out), but what if his shoulder faltered again? 28M is nothing to sneeze at, but now hes guaranteed nearly $85M. He was smart and took the risk adverse position. "Hometown discount" is a great phrase for the papers, but we all know why Carp and the many players this year have signed extensions...its called security. If Z doesn't want that, thats fine for him. Its a risky position to take (especially considering his abuse), but with risk, there are rewards. Plus, Z seems like the type of uber confident guy who goes into every year knowing (thinking) he will win the CY.

The one thing no one has mentioned in discussing the Angels as a possible trading partner is...do the Angels NEED Z? The answer of course is a resounding no. Yes, they have the prospects that we would want for him, and yes any team would like to have him. But a team with Lackey, Weaver, Escobar, Santana, and Colon/Saunders probably isnt going to want to trade away the only remnants of their farm system for a starting pitcher. Especially, considering Escobar and Lackey are signed through 09 (Lackey has an option that surely will be picked up if hes effective), and Santana, Weaver, and Saunders are pre-arbi.

Brian, lets become Brewer's fans!!! But you have to drive me up to Milwaukee. I'm never in any condition to drive back after games up there. Hell, with all the renovations, it will probably be quicker than taking the L to Wrigley.

I'd refer to myself as Captain Moneypants. I'd give myself a rank higher than Captain. General Motors ruined the title General, and plus I just got an electric bill for $254 (and I live in a freakin one bedroom), so General Electric, or anything with the word electric in it boils my blood. General Mills wins some of that back because food is good, but the damage is done. Colonel Moneypants has a nice ring to it. Colonel Sanders makes good chicken and Colonel Angus is one of the like 3 funny sketches SNL has put out in the last 5 years. You could go the Navy route, but if we are talking about Moneypants, I don't think Seaman or Rear Admiral would work well before it.

Personally, no I don't think we could get those packages. Its hard to tell though. Who was the last player of Z's stature to be traded the year before he became a FA? Beltran is all I can think of. He netted Mark Teahen, John Buck, Mike Wood, and cash. Not the plentiful bounty in the trade proposals above.

im sure people said the same thing about Maddux in 92 They didn't trade Maddux though. People wouldn't be nearly so bent on the Maddux situation if we had, say, Chipper Jones to show for it. And people would be more bent on it if we had, say, Todd Van Poppel and 1 less year of Maddux to show for it. Serious question here. If you were Jim Hendry and Carlos Zambrano looked you in the face and said, "I'm leaving after this year", what would you do? Would you keep him, pray you win the WS in 2007, then watch him walk for nothing? Or would you trade him now for the best package of young players you could get? Reasonable minds can disagree here, but I'm taking the latter every time. Getting nothing but a draft pick or two for Z would be disastrous. The reality of the situation is that instead of getting one ace this offseason we got a middle of the rotation guy and a back of the rotation guy. I'm not blaming Hendry, Im just stating the facts. If we had gotten a #1 or #2 starter, we might have been able to survive this year without Z. But instead, right now subtracting Z does more to hurt our chances of making the playoffs than any other player on this team. After spending 300M this offseason, you just can't do that. Basically Hendry's hands are tied. IF we did have another ace, I would most definitely send feelers out to see what he would bring in return. I'm not sure the angels would give us Adenhart and Wood, its not like their starting pitching is a weakness (Bartolo ain't a bad 5th starter). The Mets would probably be the most interested given the lack of an ace in their rotation. Milledge, Heilman, Gomez/Martinez, and Pelfry/Humber would be a great great haul (and probably not realistic).

1-1) Albert Pujols 1-2) Jose Reyes 1-3) Johan Santana 1-4) Alfonso Soriano 1-5) Alex Rodriguez 1-6) Carlos Beltran 1-7) Ryan Howard 1-8) Miguel Cabrera 1-9) Carl Crawford 1-10) Chase Utley 1-11) Derrek Lee 1-12) Chris Carpenter 2-1) David Wright 2-2) Lance Berkman 2-3) Grady Sizemore 2-4) David Ortiz 2-5) Vladimir Guerrero 2-6) Manny Ramirez 2-7) Mark Teixeira 2-8) Travis Hafner 2-9) Derek Jeter 2-10) Carlos Lee 2-11) Matt Holliday 2-12) Carlos Zambrano 3-1) Jake Peavy 3-2) Aramis Ramirez 3-3) Justin Morneau 3-4) Joe Mauer 3-5) Paul Konerko 3-6) Miguel Tejada 3-7) Jason Bay 3-8) Hanley Ramirez 3-9) Jimmy Rollins 3-10) Roy Halladay 3-11) Brandon Webb 3-12) Dan Haren 4-1) Garrett Atkins 4-2) Ichiro 4-3) Vernon Wells 4-4) Brian McCann 4-5) Roy Oswalt 4-6) Felix Hernandez 4-7) Ben Sheets 4-8) Bobby Abreu 4-9) Jeremy Bonderman 4-10) Andruw Jones 4-11) Victor Martinez 4-12) Jermaine Dye 5-1) Michael Young 5-2) Robby Cano 5-3) Rafael Furcal 5-4) Francisco Rodriguez 5-5) Bill Hall 5-6) Cole Hamels 5-7) Brian Roberts 5-8) Joe Nathan 5-9) Adam Dunn 5-10) Ryan Zimmerman 5-11) Carlos Guillen 5-12) Chone Figgins 6-1) Daisuke Matsuzaka 6-2) Jim Thome 6-3) John Lackey 6-4) B.J. Ryan 6-5) Carlos Delgado 6-6) Billy Wagner 6-7) Rocco Baldelli 6-8) Rich Hill 6-9) Troy Glaus 6-10) Justin Verlander 6-11) Aaron Harang 6-12) John Smoltz 7-1) Ian Kinsler 7-2) Johnny Damon 7-3) Mariano Rivera 7-4) Jered Weaver 7-5) Huston Street 7-6) Brett Myers 7-7) Matt Cain 7-8) Scott Kazmir 7-9) Curt Schilling 7-10) Felipe Lopez 7-11) Hideki Matsui 7-12) Nick Swisher 8-1) Bobby Jenks 8-2) Jason Schmidt 8-3) Rickie Weeks 8-4) C.C. Sabathia 8-5) Dan Uggla 8-6) Juan Pierre 8-7) JJ Putz 8-8) Randy Johnson 8-9) Howie Kendrick 8-10) Rich Harden 8-11) Prince Fielder 8-12) Michael Barrett 9-1) Brad Lidge 9-2) Chris Young 9-3) Chipper Jones 9-4) Jeff Francoeur 9-5) Pat Burrell 9-6) Scott Rolen 9-7) Erik Bedard 9-8) Gary Sheffield 9-9) Trevor Hoffman 9-10) Richie Sexson 9-11) Barry Zito 9-12) Dontrelle Willis 10-1) Todd Helton 10-2) Takashi Saito 10-3) Mike Piazza 10-4) Delmon Young 10-5) Chad Cordero 10-6) Josh Beckett 10-7) AJ Burnett 10-8) Jonathan Papelbon 10-9) Tom Gordon 10-10) Julio Lugo 10-11) Barry Bonds 10-12) Corey Patterson 11-1) Chad Tracy 11-2) JD Drew 11-3) Francisco Cordero 11-4) Ervin Santana 11-5) Chris Ray 11-6) Coco Crisp 11-7) Stephen Drew 11-8) Bronson Arroyo 11-9) Jason Giambi 11-10) Brian Fuentes 11-11) Brandon Phillips 11-12) Alex Rios 12-1) Michael Cuddyer 12-2) Jason Isringhausen 12-3) Chien-Ming Wang 12-4) John Patterson 12-5) Magglio Ordonez 12-6) Eric Gagne 12-7) Tadahito Iguchi 12-8) Ryan Freel 12-9) Torii Hunter 12-10) Frank Thomas 12-11) Kelvim Escobar 12-12) Adam LaRoche 13-1)Willy Taveras 13-2) Joel Zumaya 13-3) Raul Ibanez 13-4) Adrian Gonzalez 13-5) Scott Podsednik 13-6) Bob Wickman 13-7) Nick Markakis 13-8) Nomar Garciaparra 13-9) Mike Mussina 13-10) Brad Hawpe 13-11) Dave Bush 13-12) Russell Martin 14-1) Mark Prior 14-2) Eric Chavez 14-3) Kenji Johjima 14-4) Anthony Reyes 14-5) Ramon Hernandez 14-6) Roger Clemens 14-7) Lyle Overbay 14-8) Scott Olsen 14-9) Nate Robertson 14-10) Derek Lowe 14-11) Jonathon Broxton 14-12) Chuck James 15-1) Hank Blalock 15-2) Aubrey Huff 15-3) Jorge Posada 15-4) Chris Capuano 15-5) Javier Vazquez 15-6) Octavio Dotel 15-7) Joe Crede 15-8) Josh Willingham 15-9) Josh Barfield 15-10) Brad Penny 15-11) Ivan Rodriguez 15-12) Jhonny Peralta 16-1) Adam Wainwright 16-2) Andy Pettitte 16-3) Jose Valverde 16-4) Alex Gordon 16-5) Anibal Sanchez 16-6) Solomon Torres 16-7) Keith Foulke 16-8) Bengie Molina 16-9) Dustin Pedroia 16-10) Pedro Martinez 16-11) Moises Alou 16-12) Ryan Dempster 17-1)Ray Durham 17-2) Josh Johnson 17-3) Mike Gonzalez 17-4) Chris Young 17-5) Ted Lilly 17-6) Greg Maddux 17-7) Mark Teahen 17-8) Jon Garland 17-9) B.J. Upton 17-10) Clay Hensley 17-11) Scott Shields 17-12) Edger Renteria 18-1) Eric Byrnes 18-2) Jeff Kent 18-3) Kevin Millwood 18-4) Philip Hughes

Imagine if Prior was healthy too... Imagine if our payroll was at/around $150 million. and promised to stay there. Then we could actually afford it. . Well sure, any team that ups their salary by 30M will be able to keep a 20M pitcher. In other news, water is wet.

If hes gonna be a backup OF anywhere outside of NY its going to be Philly from all reports.

Hes one of the best (if not the best) Braves pitching prospects. Hes pretty interesting...a huge flyball pitcher with a really good K rate. Hes been uber studly in the minors, but thats due to a low HR rate that last year showed was not sustainable in the majors. It also was due to crazy low hit rates. Hes not going to be able to keep those up, but he should be well below league average in H/9 and BABIP given all the fly balls.