jjgman21

not only will I get on board to get this to three pages, I will give Jock some props, as his ineptitude helped the Cubs win this game today. three K's against Carpenter, but 16 pitches. without those ABs, Carpenter probably comes out for the seventh and the Cubs lose this game. Jock will be fine. he'll end up giving us what we expected. let's just hope he doesn't continue doing it from the five hole.

you're just making things up. I'm watching the replay right now. the flyout in the first was caught about 35 feet in front of the warning track by Pierre. the flyout in the fourth was caught about 150 fee behind short by Murton in the seventh he popped up to second. no foul balls stood a chance of leaving the yard if fair. and, for what it's worth, in the ninth, Pujols ground hard to third. not sure what game you watched, but Pujols didn't come close to hitting a homerun yesterday.

lot's of talk about pitching to the conditions, but another factor is Maddux pitching with a lead. as alluded to by Len and Bob during the game, with a 5-0 lead and the wind blowing in, Maddux is going to be a lot more willing to give pitches to hit. I'm replaying the game right now, and going into the fourth inning, Maddux had a four run lead and had surrendered exactly 1 hard hit ball, Rolen's double down the line. that inning he gave up a hard hit foulball to Pujols. while the wind helped on Edmonds fly to left, on a neutral day that ball would have been at best a basket shot, and we all heard the stats on the Cubs record with the wind blowing in v. out. despite reputation, the wind generally blows in more than out at Wrigley. furthermore, Edmonds fly came on a 2-0 pitch with a man on first in front of the only guy who had hit the ball hard on him previous to that inning, Rolen. to me that's smart pitching. in the sixth, JRod hit the ball hard, but on a neutral day, the ball is probably caught. no other balls were hit hard that inning. then came the seventh. Cubs up 5-0, Maddux about at his pitch limit. so he give ups a solo dinger. big deal. saying Maddux suffered alot of hard hit balls and his fate would have been worse on a different day is akin to trying to predict how an inning or outcome would be but for an error or blown call. you never know what would have happened had conditions and situations been different. overall, Maddux showed his mastery on this day and dominated the Cardinals lineup. seeing things otherwise is just being hyper-critical.

I've seen too many "best games ever" against these guys that turn out to be "worst games ever." I'm not counting chickens til eggs have hatched. on total pins and needles here at work. edit: I was typing this as Edmonds was rounding the bases

please elaborate

Tejada is 29 and Abreu is 32. You expect them to delcline majorly this or next year? I guess you are not a fan of resigning Lee because he will have the same contracts or worse as he ages. actually, I'm not a huge fan of extending Lee beyond 2008. but there's a gigantic difference between the two situations. if one goes bad, the team is using payroll inefficiently. if the other goes bad, the team is using payroll inefficiently AND loses Mark fricken Prior. Abreu's and Tejada's contract escalate as time goes by. in other words, the worse they become, the more they cost. in Tejada's case, he'll even cost an extra $2M in both 2010 and 2011, when he is long gone. Tejada will be 30 in May. what concens me is paying him 12-13M per season in 2008 and 2009, after he's sure to decline. Abreu's decline already began. his OPS+ dropped to 123 last year at age 31. the chances of a rebound and sustaining his old numbers for three years is about zero. I have no problem with getting rid of guys that hurt the organization overall. however, that is not the easiest thing to do, and the last thing you want to do is put the team into a worse situation down the road.

So is the answer to never spend money on pitching? That seems a lot more reasonable than saying trade Prior now because 2 years down the road he'll be making a lot of money and there's a chance he won't be healthy. The answer is to trade declining assets if it's reasonable to believe they won't return to form and invest in pitchers you can be confident will be healthy and consistent like Zambrano for example. the example you use takes the conversation completely out of context. you make guys like Z seem a dime a dozen. health and consistency....so pitchers like Maddux are the answer? healthy, consistent, he's perfect! and about trading those declining assets, think you'll get full value for them, or is it reasonable to do a cost benefit analysis and determine it is better to keep them ie. 20 starts of Prior at his current salary is well worth the price? Wood's trade value is nothing. think you can work out a deal that would make NOT taking a risk on him one more year worth it, keeping in mind that you'll have to eat most of his contract, and will get next to nothing in return? is one possible approach having a back up plan of spending about three million - as opposed to the astronomical sum you make it out to be - on servicable starters (Rusch, Miller, Williams) and keeping a stable of capable starters in the minors instead of trading them away (Hill, Guz, Marshall, Ryu, etc.)? So if Prior gets himself into Wood's situation would you just want him to walk as a free agent? What do you want to see the Cubs do with Wood? If we could just pull up guys from the minors that would pitch well right away like a lot of other teams do, I'd feel better about the situation. If we could have gotten Abreu or Tejada, I would have been fine with that as far as the value goes. Let's also not forget Prior has had an ERA around 4 the last two years. Like I said, maybe he was pitching differently to avoid injury or something, but that's another problem. If he was pitching like a very good pitcher, maybe I'd be inclined to cut him more slack, I don't know. until 2007 when both players will be vastly overpaid for their production? then a new round of arm-chair GM'ing can begin.

while that might be true, assuming the run would score runs contrary to everything else that's mandated about situations like this(can't assume a double play for example) I know what you are saying, but there are also situations where the umps are allowed to make a determination based on what would have happened, ie. double down the line with a runner on first, then a fan reaches over and grabs the ball. the umps can decide whether the runner from first goes to third or scores.

So is the answer to never spend money on pitching? That seems a lot more reasonable than saying trade Prior now because 2 years down the road he'll be making a lot of money and there's a chance he won't be healthy. The answer is to trade declining assets if it's reasonable to believe they won't return to form and invest in pitchers you can be confident will be healthy and consistent like Zambrano for example. the example you use takes the conversation completely out of context. you make guys like Z seem a dime a dozen. health and consistency....so pitchers like Maddux are the answer? healthy, consistent, he's perfect! and about trading those declining assets, think you'll get full value for them, or is it reasonable to do a cost benefit analysis and determine it is better to keep them ie. 20 starts of Prior at his current salary is well worth the price? Wood's trade value is nothing. think you can work out a deal that would make NOT taking a risk on him one more year worth it, keeping in mind that you'll have to eat most of his contract, and will get next to nothing in return? is one possible approach having a back up plan of spending about three million - as opposed to the astronomical sum you make it out to be - on servicable starters (Rusch, Miller, Williams) and keeping a stable of capable starters in the minors instead of trading them away (Hill, Guz, Marshall, Ryu, etc.)?

update. they rejected the offer. minor league umps are on strike.

I think that should be taken with a grain of salt. I have seen one article that state that...an AP wire article, without quotes, and without a byline. considering the state of sports journalism in this country, I wouldn't give it too much weight. BA's take on Willis at the time so if Bienfiest really did insist on Dontrelle, that's more a credit to him than a knock on the Cubs because the foremost experts didn't see anything all that special. as for not wanting to trade him and keep the farm stocked, the Cubs farm system was ridiculously stocked at the time. Willis, Guzman, Mitre, Krawiec, Ryu, Bruback, Smyth, Cruz, Zambrano, Pinto (?), Ferreras, I'm probably missing a couple/few...and they knew they were going to be able to draft Prior at the time of the trade. there were chips to trade to fill a few holes, which was pretty necessary, because that is the type of fanbase we are.

game log says three looking K's, and only 19 balls in 68 pitches for Aroyo. great pitching, bad hitting, or generous umpiring? or a combination thereof?

what, did Kranitz find a clue in the offseason? because he had plenty of opportunity to fix Mitre's mechanics in the past before this year. http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=36302 it was one game. don't read too much into it. however, I don't remember Serge's changeup being as nasty or used as often as I saw last night.

one free day is all I need to realize I can't get EI until retirement. I've been clicking back and forth between games for about 5 hours now.

lot's of ragging about Pierre's arm, but there's something to be said for a player who acknowledges his weakness and does the right thing. Pierre does this by always hitting the cutoff man, and there is a benefit to that. by contrast, Sosa had a cannon early in his career, and always thought he retained the cannon through his good offensive years, but he didn't. the result was airmail after airmail allowing runners to advance, rarely getting an out. Pierre will probably not throw a runner out all year and will turn a few singles into doubles and doubles into triples, but by remaining fundamentally sound, few runners will advance into scoring position because of overthrows.

just find a thread that examines Hendry's ability to make trades. someone always brings it up.

there was a thread about this a couple of months ago. someone claimed they predicted great succsess for him, but if you could distinguish anyone from that Boise squad you were either clairvoyant or had alot of time on your hands to bum around the Pacific northwest. there were four pitchers who absolutely blew the league away...Mitre was one, as was Guzman.

that's great for comparing two teams. doesn't change the fact that the Cards don't have what many would consider a world series caliber team's outfield. also, career numbers aren't exactly the most meaningful way of looking at this comparison. not that three year splits helps the Cubs here since Encarnacion would probably have an advantage with three year splits, and Edmonds would probably be much higher. and I agree that I don't think Murton will be down around league average.

combined with the comments about the Texas league, it seems you were talking about a lateral move. I thought you were the one who brought up the Texas league, and AA in general. I don't think he brought up anything about lateral moves. But when I first read it, I assumed he was talking about an A's team in the Southern League. I'll repeat this comment made me think he was saying that lateral moves between the same level happen all the time.

I think our differences in opinion on the situtation center around our differences in how willing we are to burn Ohman. against the left handed dominate lineup of the Reds, I think Ohman was needed for more than just one batter.

most do unless promoted or demoted. these guys live on the road. they don't want to have to become familiar with new highways, new restuarants, new hotels, etc. just for the sake of a lateral move, ie. from one AA league to another AA league. I'm sure some guys get put in leagues they don't want to be in, so they change later on. but the guy I know had his choice of AA leagues to go to, and I can't imagine he received any special treatment by being given this choice. who's talking about lateral moves? i'm talking about umpires fresh out of umpire school starting out in rookie ball and progressing up until they either hit the big leagues or top out somewhere along the way. you don't just hit the southern league after you graduate. again you weren't clear in your post, but I guess I should have recognized your FYI post was probably tangential to the rest of the discussion. with that said, you were talking about a lateral move combined with the comments about the Texas league, it seems you were talking about a lateral move. I am well aware of minor league umps moving up through the ranks, hence.... and look, your first comment was specious, so I pointed it out. I could have taken a sarcastic tone and said you were full of it, but considering you are unlikely to make things up around here, I didn't. the least you could have done is shown the same respect and just cleared up the misperception instead of starting a pissing match.

most do unless promoted or demoted. these guys live on the road. they don't want to have to become familiar with new highways, new restuarants, new hotels, etc. just for the sake of a lateral move, ie. from one AA league to another AA league. I'm sure some guys get put in leagues they don't want to be in, so they change later on. but the guy I know had his choice of AA leagues to go to, and I can't imagine he received any special treatment by being given this choice.

You are forgetting the best option which was to let Williams pitch innings 7-9, as you should with your long man in blowouts. It was 12-6 going into the bottom of the 7th. It was an obvious move to have your long man warmed up. Jerome should be able to get you through 3 without blowing a 6 run lead. There's absolutely no justification for extending an important short-man coming off years where there was already concern that he was overused. agree completely. this move combined with my comments about Ohman is how I would have handled it. let Ohman work through the sixth inning and all the lefties, then let Williams finish the game. if he gets in trouble, then bring in Williams, Eyre, Howry, Dempster. if you're worried about getting them work, give them all a bullpen session after the game. Dusty did this all year last year. the Cubs carried a long man all year long, and I can recall a bullpen pitcher used as a long man one time, Hill for Z in Milwaukee. without looking through the game log, I don't think a relief pitcher had an outting more than 2 innings the rest of the entire year.

just thought I would note that the A's don't have an affilate in the southern league. their AA affiliate is Midland in the Texas League. if the umpire in question had only called games in the southern league then you'd have a point. most umps are assigned to a league. if you hadn't characterized him as a southern league ump, as opposed to some league floating ump, I wouldn't have brought it up.

just thought I would note that the A's don't have an affilate in the southern league. their AA affiliate is Midland in the Texas League. incidentally, an Eastern League umpire (Carolina League last year) helped me do my roof two weeks ago, and despite my prodding, he was pretty reluctant to admit that umpires treat certain players or teams differently, but you could tell just by his demeanor at my questions that umps do it all the time.