jjgman21

isn't it weird how as Cubs fans, the ump gets a call right, and we feel fortunate. the pitch to Barrett before the GS was a ball. I'm not sure which call you're referring to. bottom line is, pitches that Morgan describes as "acceptable" strikes went like this today: one corner call for Marshall against Pujols one corner call for Barrett against Izzy all others went the Cards way. The obvious bad call at 1st base that went the Cubs way is the one I was referring to. But, Murton was safe at 1st earlier in the game, but they called him out. I felt like it was a make up call. The Barrett pitch was definitely borderline, but there were a bunch of them that Marshall threw that I felt were strikes also. I thought Marshall was just getting the "rookie" treatment. Izzy and Rincon on the otherhand, weren't anywhere near the strike zone when they missed, so the ump apparently didn't feel like being generous to them. the beauty of TIVO. I watched all the close calls on the bases tonight in super slow mo, and the first base ump got them all right. I was peeved too at the Lee and Murton calls, but he got them right. on Cedeno's, the throw did beat him, but Pujols came off the bag for just one quick blink. enough time for Ronny to get his foot on the bag.

in early early ST games, a pitchers goes 2-3 innings, then adds an inning or two steadily throughout. I don't remember any talk early in the spring. once they decided he had a shot, there were maybe 12 days left in ST, and he hadn't pitched more than a couple innings at a time. by the time it even became a possability, there really wasn't enough time to get his pitch count up to where it needed to be to go 6 or 7 innings in a big league game. but I'm sure that's just Dusty's excuse. not the worst decision in the world. if it wasn't the Cardinals or Astros, and maybe even Brewers this year, I would have stuck with him to see if he could get out of the inning, but you have to fight tooth and nail for every W against those divisional teams.

isn't it weird how as Cubs fans, the ump gets a call right, and we feel fortunate. the pitch to Barrett before the GS was a ball. I'm not sure which call you're referring to. bottom line is, pitches that Morgan describes as "acceptable" strikes went like this today: one corner call for Marshall against Pujols one corner call for Barrett against Izzy all others went the Cards way.

I think a win like this early in the season is huge. a comeback win, especially when up against it because of the ump, is a huge confidence builder for a team. a team will tend to keep battling in those situations in the future knowing they have the ability to overcome those things.

I concur Badger, I concur.

It'll probably be a 2 minute gloss over...it is anytime you get excited to see it :P it'll be a little longer. they will have to spend at least two minutes embellishing how Pujols didn't go hitless for the series.

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they way he charged Cedeno? that was absurd.

I knew Cedeno was fast, but had no idea just how fast he was. he's turned a single into a double the past two games. very impressed with his speed.

my girlfriend's boy is mute...and he was screaming his head off. I'm tweaking here. feels like I drank 40 cups of coffee.

I would have like to see this game had the ump not gotten every other borderline call wrong. way to go Michael. nice eye.

to mock another thread, worst defensive catcher ever.

:shock: After the calls in this game, they should. comin's around meat and taters? don't you usually defend the umps?

let's get several. I'd settle for two and three outs from Dempster without Ryan giving up any runs. fixed it was implied, but thanks

like the way they failed to mention Pujols came off the bag on Cedeno's grounder into the hole

let's get several. I'd settle for two and three outs from Dempster.

especially when the home plate ump did the exact same thing to Lee yesterday.

first ball to Edmonds has been called a strike to Cub batters at least ten times tonight.

anyone who sees this game, then says the umpires don't make calls based on the color of the uniform is on crack.

Ponson was getting the low strike and Marshall wasn't. Maybe Marshall's downhill delivery is messing with the ump. :? well there's the outside corner for Ponson too. the ump also missed a high curve to Rolen. Rolen hit his HR on strike five.

so I see the first inning squeez-o-rama and think 'ok, so were looking at a slugfest.' then I see the first two pitches to Pierre called a strike. ever wonder why scrub after scrub shines for the Cardinals? there's your answer right there. I imagine KP = Kirby Puckett

I haven't ever even taken a stats class. it seemed reasonable to me that stats called "predicted outs by fielder" and "actual outs by fielder" can be subtracted to come up with the number of plays a player makes above some baseline. for Mench, in 108 starts, that total is 17. for Dunn, in 126 starts, that total is 2. so over the course of a full season, that would be closer to 21 or 22. use another defensive metric, zone rating, and Dunn doesn't get to about 10-11 balls a year that Mench does. add to that the fact that range isn't Dunn's biggest problem. harnessing the ball within the glove is. keep in mind that all those times that Dunn oles a ball he should have had, he doesn't get an error. 22-25 plays not made that Mench would is not an outrageous estimation, even without math skills. it's probably more. also, one of the reasons I chose to use Mench as a comparison is their similar situations. they both are in very similar situations in terms of ballparks and pitching staffs. does it really matter that we don't have this information? I think its safe to assume that Dunn failed to record an out on a variety of different balls that Mench would have/did. now you think about the variety of balls that go to the outfield and where they end up, and make an estimate. if anything, I was being generous to Dunn. bloopers that he doesn't get to are the equivalent to singles. line shots to the warning track, balls he loses in the sun, floaters down the line are doubles. balls that go between his legs are extra bases allowed. speculation yes. not really unfounded. again, I don't have math skills, but this type of analysis doesn't require very precise measurement. throw out the outliners, and Mench is pretty much right in the middle in that study. so I can assume it's safe to say you think there can be some fault in that study. are you willing to say it might have Dunn rated higher than he belongs? I didn't use the predicted data regarding runs. I'm talking about outs. therefore, I used the same data about outs for a different purpose.

I hadn't heard. what happened?

Easy. Pitching is the vast majority of what produces those 27 outs, and the difference between the best fielder and the worst fielder at a given position is rarely anywhere nearly as big as the difference between the best hitter and even an average hitter--especially in the outfield. Dunn is a huge offensive producer and a liability in the field at possibly the least important defensive position. It's not a matter of having it "both ways." When a hitter is at the plate, the only person who can make an out is himself. That is not the case in the field. Outs will be made via strikeout, in the infield, or in other parts of the outfield that he has no effect on whatsoever, but he has an effect every time he comes to the plate. The situations are not parallel, and that's why not making outs at the plate is more important than making outs in the field. it absolutely is a matter of having it both ways. the concept is that outs are precious. avoid them on offense, get them on defense. but you want to say x outs are really important, y outs are not so important. it's all about winning ballgames. both are incredibly important. let's do the math. in about a year's worth of batting, 600 plate appearances, Dunn will avoid making an out approximately 230 times, Mench about 205. in a year's worth of chances to get an out in the field, Dunn will make about 25 fewer catches than a guy like Mench. the difference in outs avoided while at bat and outs given away in the field is equal. now you want to sit here and say that Dunn's 25 outs avoided is hugely important, but the 25 outs he gives back are not important. bs. in this case, the difference between a bad defender and an average defender is just as many outs as the difference between a very good hitter and an average hitter. the thesis in bold above just doesn't carry much weight when actually looking at the situation in terms of outs. as I've heard many times, a pitcher has no control on what happens after he throws the ball. it is up to the fielders to make a play if there is contact. while the leftfielder doesn't ever have an impact on all 27 putouts, he has an effect on every ball in the range of play of the leftfielder. in the case of Dunn, it's fair to say that he gives back a dozen singles and a dozen doubles a year in offense with his poor defense when compared to a player like Kevin Mench. that has an impact on winning ballgames, and when comparing him to other leftfielders, I think it is fair to subtract those two dozen hits from his offensive stats. if he's responsible for his walks and his HRs, he's also responsible for the outs he doesn't get on defense. as I already said, he's still a plus player. furthermore, I would generally prefer the offense over the defense. but pretending like his ineptitude in the field makes no / little difference on winning is absurd. his poor fielding significantly impacts his teams ability to win ballgames, and it significantly impacts his value as a baseball player.

I really don't get it. I don't understand how people can talk about how 27 outs are precious, then discount the significance of how important it is to get the other team out 27 times. you can't have it both ways. you can't say Dunn is so valuable because he doesn't make outs, then say the ability to get the other team out doesn't matter. not making outs is very important. getting the other team out when you have an opportunity is just as important. I think an illustration is helpful. Dunn and Kevin Mench are players in similar situations. they both play for teams with great offenses and terrible flyball pitching, and play half their games in launching pads. even that PVR study shows that in fewer innings in leftfield, Mench made 15 more plays than Dunn did. that's 15 outs that Mench created that Dunn would not have. spread it out over a full season, that's probably 22-25 outs in a year or more. what would happen on those outs are difficult to define. but it's safe to say alot of them turned into doubles since a play not made in the outfield turns into a ball finding green either along the line, in the gap, or over the head. the only time it only equals a single is balls in front of the outfielder. so much in the way we evalutated Wilkerson v. Pierre over the winter, let's look at what happens if those outs Dunn didn't get are subtracted from Dunn's offensive numbers. let's say Dunn gives away the equivalent of 12 doubles and 12 singles when compared to Mench. take those twelve doubles and 12 singles away from Dunn, and his numbers are reduced to .351/.473/.824 Mench was .328/.469/.797 last year. outs are outs, no matter if you're on offense or defense. avoiding them on offense and getting them on defense when they are available is equally important. for all the mashing that Dunn does at the plate, his defense kills his team, and reduces his worth significantly. noone that truly values outs could say otherwise. many of the concepts alluded to in Moneyball have been taken too far. this is one of them. defense is extremely important, because getting the other team to make 27 outs is just as important how your team does at avoiding making 27 outs. Dunn is still a plus player all things considered, but his defense makes him considerably less valuable.