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CubinNY

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  1. I read it the first time, and you've never adressed what I wrote back to you. Do you read other peoples responses? Where has Pettitte been pitching for the last three years? Are the next three years going to look more like his last three years or like his first three years? Now factor in pay. He played in a bandbox. Factor in long term commitment. MMP ranks right around Wrigley in terms of park factors, although they do flutuate from year to year. It's neither a hitter heaven nor a ptichers delight. Long term commitement has nothing to do with this as he signed a 1 year contract. He's an average pitcher that is getting paid 16 million dollars.
  2. I read it the first time, and you've never adressed what I wrote back to you. Do you read other peoples responses? Where has Pettitte been pitching for the last three years? Are the next three years going to look more like his last three years or like his first three years? Now factor in pay.
  3. It's not just ERA+ that goes into the equation. Check out his other graphs. He's right around league average and has been for a couple of years now. Yet, he's compensated quite well. Here is a compairson to Maddux http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=840&playerid2=104&playerid3=&position=P&page=0&type=full You are making the EXACT SAME MISTAKES again. WHAT MISTAKE IS THAT? I don't give a flip about Pettitte's career numbers, I only care about the trends. He's been a little better than league average for quite a while and has been injured to boot. He's not the same guy he was in 96 and he's getting paid like he is.
  4. I'd hold up on the predicitons for a while. Most of the players these guys are playing against aren't going to be around once the season begins and many times ST numbers don't carry over into the regular season. I put much more faith in PECOTA than I do ST.
  5. It's not just ERA+ that goes into the equation. Check out his other graphs. He's right around league average and has been for a couple of years now. Yet, he's compensated quite well. Here is a compairson to Maddux http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=840&playerid2=104&playerid3=&position=P&page=0&type=full
  6. Not really. It's a one year deal, and Pettitte got his home run rate back in check in the second half, allowing him to post a 2.80 ERA. I'd rather have that deal than the Lilly or Marquis deal. There's almost no chance Lilly or Marquis earns their keep over the next few years, but there's a significantly higher chance that Pettitte can do it for next year only. If it would have worked out, fantastic... if it didn't, he wouldn't be blocking Guzman, Veal, or Gallagher in 2008. I wouldn't... Pettitte is only about 15% better than the average pitcher over the course of his career. Is that worth $16M? I sure don't think so. You'd rather have Lilly for 4 years and 40 mil, when he's never been anything special, or Marquis for 3 years and 21 million fresh off an ERA over 6? Both of those guys have a pretty high chance to implode and become impossible to move. At least with Pettitte you retain roster flexibility and don't block your best prospects. It's not about who I would rather have. Lilly and Marquis are not part of the equation. Pettitte is right around a league average pitcher, and he's paid like a superstar http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=840&position=P&page=0&type=full
  7. Two years ago when the Cubs were in NY to play the Yankees, who is walking around Yankee stadium yelling CUBS WOO!, none other than Ronnie. How does he make it anywhere? The guy has some sort of super power.
  8. IBL See transactions
  9. Holy crap, the Yankees are paying Andy Pettitte $16 million this year. Now that is a bad contract.
  10. Overrated. You are being sarcastic when you keep repeating this, right? Probably, but it is highly overrated. Highly. Defense in baseball is the least important of the three (offense, defense, and pitching) becasue the difference between an elite defender and an average or poor defender is extremely small. While the differene between an elite pitcher or batter and the average or poor one is huge.
  11. New year same story. The Cubs are a' swining mad men.
  12. "The flu" is another word for didn't want to travel.
  13. "Somebody is punching a wolf ticket"
  14. Ya know..... last year, the CUBS were 32-22 when they scored in the first inning...... 34-74 when they didn't. :wink: Man, I'm really getting excited about baseball !! No game thread would be complete without a stat quote from Fred. Let the game begin! Less than 24 hours.
  15. I agree. A statistic is simply a way to measure some portion of the game. A stat neither necssarily detracts nor enhances any part of baseball. If a stat is meanigful (i.e., useful) then why not use it? It's like arguing that learning something new about baseball is a bad thing, which Joe Morgan does every chance he gets.
  16. My favorite is the great Grudz/Walker debate of 04. "You don't dump your new girlfriend just becuase your old girlfriend wants to get back together with you", or something like that
  17. Usually when I'm posting I'm also doing other things as well. I'm very good at multi-tasking. However, multi-tasking creats errors and this is a message board for baseball and not an English class. Most of the time it's not hard to get the jist even if all the words aren't spelled correctly and the grammar is poor.
  18. But Morgan's claim is he didn't change his vote because he has recently voted yes. I've never liked Morgan so I'm not going to claim he's telling the truth - but he is claiming he voted for Santo to get in. Morgan may well have voted for Santo, but not enough of the people who didn't vote for him in 2005 changed their vote. I'm pretty sure Santo got roughly the same % this year that he got the last time they voted. That means either the new guys voted for him but the one who didn't last time didn't this time. or The news guys didn't vote for him but some of the people changed their vote. or some combination of the two. My guss is the first one.
  19. Morgan says he voted for Santo and Shmidt said he would vote for Santo. Hmm. what to believe Santo didn't receive any "new" votes from past members who voted on him or the new guys who entered didn't vote for him but the a few who didn't last time decided to change their vote. I'm going to believe that the old guard didn't change their vote. At one point in time Shmidt said he didn't think anyone should get elected by the vetrans committee because if they were good enough they would have gotten voted in by the writers.
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