CubinNY

five base on balls? Come on Rich.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time. I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late. The Mets are playing good baseball. The Phillies are not. The Phillies have been treading water as long as the Cubs have. They hit their high water mark on June 8th, 13 games over .500. At the end of June, they were 5 games over. Today, they're 6 games over. There's plenty of risk either way. I also am looking to minimize the Cubs risk, and am even willing to throw away homefield to do it. If the Cubs play well (say, get to 94 wins or so) the only way they don't make the playoffs is if Milwaukee and St Louis both play really well and pass them. There's a statistically insignificant chance that 2 of the 3 of Philly, New York, and Florida can win 40 of their next 60 games. That's too good of a pace for too long for two teams in a division to do. If the Cubs play ok and win about 89 games (1 game under .500 the rest of the way), then the East could catch them. But Milwaukee and St Louis both have great chances to pass them as well. I think the Cubs would squeak out the WC in this scenario and probably lose the division by 3-4 games. If the Cubs collapse to 85 wins (9 games under .500 the rest of the way) they aren't winning either the division or WC. They have a better chance of winning the WC in this scenario, but they're likely staying home for the playoffs. Part of this logic is also what you think of Milwaukee and St. Louis. If you think Milwaukee is really good, you'd rather them sweep St. Louis. If you think the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are going to collapse in September no matter what, then a split would be good. The later it gets the more I believe that the former is closer to the truth then the latter, although the latter still has a pretty good chance of happening. I don't want the Brewers or the Cardinals in the playoffs. I want the Cubs in the playoffs. The only sure way that happens is to win the division. The surest way for that to happen is for the two teams behind them to beat each other up as much as possible so even when the Cubs lose one of the two isn't gaining ground on them. The closer the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are to the Cubs the less likely it is that the Cubs make the playoffs. When you win your division it doesn't matter what your record is compared to the rest of the league. That's not the case with the WC.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time. I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late.

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either. The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss. If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up. a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up. Yes, but if they had split the Cubs would be 2 games from missing the playoffs entirely with a loss tonight. A sweep and the worst the Cubs can be back is 3. And the Cardinals would have only been 1 back in your scenario of a split and the Cubs losing tonight, not 2. I'd rather the Cubs be closer to not winning the division then closer to the Cubs not making the playoffs. Again, you have to think about the NL East. You're not. The Cubs winning the division is what is important. The closer they are to not winning the division and the less likely it is that they make the playoffs. The division is what matters. If they win the division they could have a .500 record for all I care, they still get into the playoffs. I'd rather see other teams fighting for the Wild Card.

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either. The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss. If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up. a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up.

The best thing that could happen would have been the Cubs winning more than 1 of 3 in the desert. I'm not talking about the Cubs. Your point is so obvious it doesn't really need to be made.

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

You have to be joking. You are comparing yard work to throwing a baseball? Oy vay.

So....you're THAT guy. dude, you should see how I've tricked out my 1993 Neon. It is SO STREET The best are the Honda Accords with the fat mufflers that make them sound like they're run on helium and rubber bands.

I disagree with everything this post stands for. When a player are slumping like the 3-6 hitters in the lineup. Forcing the player to swing and try to hit the ball to the opposite field often helps. Most slumps are the result of a player pressing. Putting players in motion help two fold. It takes away the thinking aspect of the at bat. Second it force the defense to be moving around and can create more holes for the hitter. The Cubs have had the leadoff hitter on quite a bit lately and they seem to die on first. Lee,Aram, and Soto are in really bad slumps. I feel the best approach to getting out the slump is by forcing the action. You can see how well it is going for the cubs to hit a three run homer. And they will get the added benefit of two AB each time they come up as Soriano and Theriot gets thrown out when the hitter swings and misses. It's a win-win. For the love of Len, the best thing to do is for these guys to stop swinging at crap and start swinging at hittable pitches. The logic of the "hit your way out of slump" escapes me completely.

For the love of Len, a team with Edmonds and Kent. :blackeye:

Peaks and valleys. Even when the Cubs are bad, they are a .500 ball club. There is no good time to go through a slump as a team, but right now is much better than in August or September. Once Lee and Aramis begin to regress to the mean they'll start winning again.

You might want to sweeten the reward a little.

I wish I never opened this thread. We need a warning label on stuff like this. A skull and crossbones will do.

I still say "Freedom Fries" and "Freedom Toast"!

You cannot just look at the name of a pitcher and say that "we should be this guy". Both Moehler and Rodriguez where hitting their spots as was Johnson. The Cubs aren't snakebit, they're slumping. It won't last.

Get his wife and new born baby up to the states. The offense has been slumping for awhile. I'm not panicking yet.

Last night I was driving home from Michigan and listening to the ESPN feed on XM for the Angles/Red Sox and I thought I was going to have some road rage listening to "Soup" Campbell. He was second guessing both Francona and Soscia. And his second guesses were pathetically stupid.

if it was during a Fox telecast, I'm pretty sure you heard neither of them mention it No, it was mentioned on the FOX broadcast and then a couple of days later it was talked about it on ESPN. I should have been more clear on that. It's pretty weird because McGwire was not a good hitter. He was a slugger.

Weis has an almost Identical record to Willingham (one more win, same number of losses). What are the chances that the "genius" gets fired if ND ends up 7-5 or 6-6?

I thought that was the whole point. Unless two teams in the east start rocking, two playoff spots go to the central. So if one of the Brewers/Cards gets swept that leaves the Cubs with as much breathing room in the playoff hunt as possible. Would you rather be tied in the division but 5 games up on a playoff spot (Cards sweep Cubs split) or 2 and 3 games up respectively (all split). Since making the playoffs is what really matters, I'll take the first choice. But who really cares...it's too early to worry about what other teams are doing anyways. I just hope we win every series. Except it probably will not work that way. Some team has to win a game. When the teams are playing within the division every game is doubly important. Cubs win 1 of Brewers/Cards win NL east treads Cubs, winner of Brewers/Cards in playoffs ------------------ Cubs win Brewers and Cards tread A dominant team emerges out of the East (Mets) Cubs in the playoffs Brewers, Cards, Phillies, Marlins fight for the wildcard ------------------ Cubs win Brewers and Cards tread No dominant team emerges out of the East Cubs in the playoffs Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Cards fight for the wildcard and NL East -------------------- NL central treads NL east does not tread at least 6 teams in hunt for division and WC ------ The best thing to happen for the Cubs is for them to win and the Brewers/Cardinals split. They have to put as much distance as they can between themselves and the rest of the division before September. To do that they need to win and the two teams behind them need to play .500 baseball. If the Cards or Brewers get hot and two teams emerge from the East, it could get bad for the Cubs.

Good call...according to the transactions on MLB.com for that day, no other 40 man or DL changes had to be made. So I guess its completely fine. Show you what I know about transactions in MLB. However, I see very little reality in the idea when Hughes is one of the guys the Yankees are banking their future on.

This is what I'm thinking too...I would absolutely love the Cards to make the playoffs over the Brewers. I'm sure the rest of the NL agrees too. That said, I might develop an ulcer if the Cards stay this close to us for the rest of the season. CCP's logic does not take into account the teams in the NY East. Whomever does not win the NL Central will be fighting with at least two other teams for the WC spot. Therefore, the Cubs need as much distance between themselves and the two other teams behind them in their division. If they go on a 14-6 or 13-7 run that takes them to the second week of August, they should have the division wrapped up. Not likely, but a boy can dream. He did mentioned that... The NL East Teams don't need to pass them. This is a zero sum game. Teams are going to be playing within their division more now. The only way for the scenario to work out is if the NL East teams split amongst themselves. If the Cubs and the winner of the of the Brewers/Cards consistently win, it won't matter because both teams get in either way. In my opinion, what the Cubs want to have happen is that both the Brewers and the Cardinals tread back to the pack so they are fighting for the WC. If all the teams in the Central tread and the teams in the East don't, that's bad for the Cubs. It's especially bad b/c their September looks horrible.

This is what I'm thinking too...I would absolutely love the Cards to make the playoffs over the Brewers. I'm sure the rest of the NL agrees too. That said, I might develop an ulcer if the Cards stay this close to us for the rest of the season. CCP's logic does not take into account the teams in the NY East. Whomever does not win the NL Central will be fighting with at least two other teams for the WC spot. Therefore, the Cubs need as much distance between themselves and the two other teams behind them in their division. If they go on a 14-6 or 13-7 run that takes them to the second week of August, they should have the division wrapped up. Not likely, but a boy can dream.

I think that the couple of weeks of games are a not indicative of much (outside of the 9 walk game). The pitchers the Cubs have faced have been throwing strikes for the most part. Aside from Fukudome, they're just going through a stretch where the pitchers they've faced having been getting ahead in the count.