i'm not sure how you can agree to disagree on something when you're wrong about it. the expected value of putting the ball in play is greater than the expected value of striking out. i'm not taking into account whether dunn would be a better or worse hitter if he played more to contact, but if you have two guys that are exactly equal except one makes 100 "expected outs" (including errors) by putting the ball in play, and the other makes 100 outs by striking out, i'd obviously take the guy who makes the outs by putting the ball in play. Your assumption is wrong. An out is an out. In real world there is "no expected" there is only what happens and what doesn't happen. The way the out happens matters not. yeah, and in the real world the guy who makes 100 outs by putting the ball in play hits sac flies, grounds home a runner from third, gets on base via errors and moves runners up. that outweighs the negative of the 2 times he rolls into a double play, and is more valuable than the 100 strikeouts from the other guy. Nice numbers there (especially the double play). I can do this too. The guy who ks 100 times hits 20 more HRs than the guy who grounds a runner home, hits the SF fly and is helped by the occasional error because he waits for a pitch to drive. Whose better, the Juan Pierre that rarely ks or the mythical Juan Pierre that ks almost every time he makes an out? The answer, is neither. But I'd rather have the mythical one because his OBP would likely be higher and he'd hit into less double plays. There an opportunity cost for every event. BTW> I've never heard of out expectancy before.