CubinNY

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. I can't speak to the ball bearings, but if a player swings very early on an inside pitch, he's going to pull it way foul. It doesn't matter if he hits it hard or soft... Yes, if he swings very early. But if he doesn't, the chances of "rubbing up a new one" are increased by pitching the change-up inside. The point is that a pitchers wants to decrease the chances that the hitter gets the sweet spot of the bat on the ball. Speeding up the bat is one way to do that. But if you don't speed it up enough, inside pitches go far. According to the article, Lilly throws change-ups about 11% of the time. I seriously doubt that hitters were sitting on his change. And, I gotta tell ya, change-ups -- wherever they are located -- fly very, very far if the hitter has the timing. Did you bother to read my other posts in this thread or did you just skip them? That's the point I think is important that the author didn't delve into, the frequency of the change-ups Lilly throws. In 2007 it was obviously a good pitch for him probably because of the frequency with which it was thrown (I have no data to back this up). However it's a risky pitch. Most hitters do not have the power to drive a ball to the opposite field when they are fooled on off-speed pitches away. They roll over the ball and ground it weakly or they pop it up weakly. A batter can get fooled on an inside fastball or breaking ball and hit it out. That's why pitchers don't pitch inside and that's why you hear color guys constantly complaining about pitching inside (i.e., they want them to do more of it).

Fukudome is a platoon player now?

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. I can't speak to the ball bearings, but if a player swings very early on an inside pitch, he's going to pull it way foul. It doesn't matter if he hits it hard or soft... Yes, if he swings very early. But if he doesn't, the chances of "rubbing up a new one" are increased by pitching the change-up inside. The point is that a pitchers wants to decrease the chances that the hitter gets the sweet spot of the bat on the ball. Speeding up the bat is one way to do that. But if you don't speed it up enough, inside pitches go far.

Just to educate; "Sample size" means that there are not enough data to make a prediction or that the prediction is based on limited data and therefore likely to be wrong. "Although the sample size is small, Pie looks like the typical AAAA guy". "Gut" means the person probably is lazy or has no interest in learning. "My gut tells me that Pie is an AAAA player".

I'm sort of pessimistic. They've hit CC in the past but Sheets manhandles them. Dempster isn't the same guy on the road. I think the only "lock" is Harden. I voted Brewers 3 out of 4.

Hopefully they fill it with Pie. As it turns out, with the offense they have, they could have left him in there to adjust. Now all this has done is push back everything. If they don't plan on Pie being in the picture let's all hope they get good value when they trade him.

This was the link at the bottom of the page. What's up with that?

What's most interesting to me is that compared to Moyer and Buehrle Lilly throws the ball up in the zone. That also goes against CW. The author didn't really discuss this much but I think an important factor is that Lilly only throws the pitch @11% of the time. He seems to pick good spots to use it resulting in good outcomes most of the time.

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays. A matter of phyiscs yes, but none of that comes into play if the hitter is suprised and leaves the bat on his shoulder. Look at all the called strikes Lilly was getting on that pitch. This should go without saying, but if the hitter leaves his bat on his shoulder it doesn't matter where the ball is thrown so long as it's called a strike.

The only problem with that philosophy is that it goes against the physics of hitting. If a batter is fooled he'll start is bat early. If it's inside he hits it hard, foul or fair, because he gets the fat of the bat on the ball. If it's outside he hits it weak of the end of the bat or misses the ball. It's a matter of physics. That and ball bearings. It's all ball bearing nowdays.

Biggest series of the year. Aramis and Lee T-off on the crooked hat wearing, bowling pen shaped, left handed, baggy pants pitcher. In fact, I cannot stand the Brewers unis. They all look they just got back from a fat farm and their cloths don't fit. Nobody has that much junk in their pants. Not even Mike Fontenot.

I don't think the Cubs are ready to part company with Howry, unfortunately. Lou keeps trotting him out at the most important times (when Marmol can't go). I think Shark has made a good impression on Lou and first impression for Lou seem to count a lot. I think Shark pushes everyone except for Marmol and Wood into the, "when did he last pitch?" category. That seems to be Lou's M.O. My guess is that Lieber has thrown his last pitch for the Cubs.

I'd swap them anyway. However, the problem as of late has been the offense. It's going to be fine people. Trust me.

Edmonds/Johnson tadem is exceedingly replaceable, but not easily. Whichever stiff they put at 2nd is replaceable (Fontenot's freakish power included). But other than that, yeah. Which is why they have to win this year. The near future, she don't a look so bright.

five base on balls? Come on Rich.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time. I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late. The Mets are playing good baseball. The Phillies are not. The Phillies have been treading water as long as the Cubs have. They hit their high water mark on June 8th, 13 games over .500. At the end of June, they were 5 games over. Today, they're 6 games over. There's plenty of risk either way. I also am looking to minimize the Cubs risk, and am even willing to throw away homefield to do it. If the Cubs play well (say, get to 94 wins or so) the only way they don't make the playoffs is if Milwaukee and St Louis both play really well and pass them. There's a statistically insignificant chance that 2 of the 3 of Philly, New York, and Florida can win 40 of their next 60 games. That's too good of a pace for too long for two teams in a division to do. If the Cubs play ok and win about 89 games (1 game under .500 the rest of the way), then the East could catch them. But Milwaukee and St Louis both have great chances to pass them as well. I think the Cubs would squeak out the WC in this scenario and probably lose the division by 3-4 games. If the Cubs collapse to 85 wins (9 games under .500 the rest of the way) they aren't winning either the division or WC. They have a better chance of winning the WC in this scenario, but they're likely staying home for the playoffs. Part of this logic is also what you think of Milwaukee and St. Louis. If you think Milwaukee is really good, you'd rather them sweep St. Louis. If you think the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are going to collapse in September no matter what, then a split would be good. The later it gets the more I believe that the former is closer to the truth then the latter, although the latter still has a pretty good chance of happening. I don't want the Brewers or the Cardinals in the playoffs. I want the Cubs in the playoffs. The only sure way that happens is to win the division. The surest way for that to happen is for the two teams behind them to beat each other up as much as possible so even when the Cubs lose one of the two isn't gaining ground on them. The closer the Brewers and/or the Cardinals are to the Cubs the less likely it is that the Cubs make the playoffs. When you win your division it doesn't matter what your record is compared to the rest of the league. That's not the case with the WC.

It's more of a logic exercise than an argument. And we still have an hour until game time. I think it boils down to risk. I don't like risk. If the Cubs win the division they are in. If they're fighting for a wildcard there is risk. However, in CCP's scenario they're in either way so it doesn't matter. I think things are going to get very tight down the stretch. The Mets and Phillies are playing much better baseball as of late.

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either. The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss. If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up. a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up. Yes, but if they had split the Cubs would be 2 games from missing the playoffs entirely with a loss tonight. A sweep and the worst the Cubs can be back is 3. And the Cardinals would have only been 1 back in your scenario of a split and the Cubs losing tonight, not 2. I'd rather the Cubs be closer to not winning the division then closer to the Cubs not making the playoffs. Again, you have to think about the NL East. You're not. The Cubs winning the division is what is important. The closer they are to not winning the division and the less likely it is that they make the playoffs. The division is what matters. If they win the division they could have a .500 record for all I care, they still get into the playoffs. I'd rather see other teams fighting for the Wild Card.

To be honest, I still don't understand why a split would be the best thing. I've been rooting for a sweep the whole time, and while I preferred a Cardinals sweep, a Brewers sweep isn't too bad either. The Cubs could lose sole possession of 1st place tonight with a Brewers win and Cubs loss. If the Brewers and Cards split the 4 games the worse the Cubs could do with a loss tonight is be 2 games up. a tie for first is worse than being 2 games up.

The best thing that could happen would have been the Cubs winning more than 1 of 3 in the desert. I'm not talking about the Cubs. Your point is so obvious it doesn't really need to be made.

See now why I said a split was about the best thing that could happen?

You have to be joking. You are comparing yard work to throwing a baseball? Oy vay.

So....you're THAT guy. dude, you should see how I've tricked out my 1993 Neon. It is SO STREET The best are the Honda Accords with the fat mufflers that make them sound like they're run on helium and rubber bands.

I disagree with everything this post stands for. When a player are slumping like the 3-6 hitters in the lineup. Forcing the player to swing and try to hit the ball to the opposite field often helps. Most slumps are the result of a player pressing. Putting players in motion help two fold. It takes away the thinking aspect of the at bat. Second it force the defense to be moving around and can create more holes for the hitter. The Cubs have had the leadoff hitter on quite a bit lately and they seem to die on first. Lee,Aram, and Soto are in really bad slumps. I feel the best approach to getting out the slump is by forcing the action. You can see how well it is going for the cubs to hit a three run homer. And they will get the added benefit of two AB each time they come up as Soriano and Theriot gets thrown out when the hitter swings and misses. It's a win-win. For the love of Len, the best thing to do is for these guys to stop swinging at crap and start swinging at hittable pitches. The logic of the "hit your way out of slump" escapes me completely.

For the love of Len, a team with Edmonds and Kent. :blackeye: