CubinNY
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Everything posted by CubinNY
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I agree. And the data are clear, given certain inputs the record will broadly reflect the predictive model (both Pythagorean and baseruns). When it does not reflect that model, the error is in the model and not reality. Whatever attributions people make for that aren't disprovable facts.
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If it was bad luck that they weren't better, it must be good luck that they are. That's the implication of your previous posts. Your funny memes don't change that.
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Which you attribute to luck. That's fine with me.
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That's not what I'm saying at all. This conversation started out with someone lamenting that the Cubs were unlucky because their record should be better based on some model. But their record is their record. If the model is a close approximation of reality, their record should improve. If it does not improve, it doesn't make them unlucky, it makes the model less relevant to reality.
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These games are interesting to me in the sense that the stakes don't seem to be as high. Seeing the team respond with good ABs and solid defense would be nice. What I hope doesn't happen is a letdown series where the team looks bad.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-3-23
CubinNY replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
The farm is looking good to end the year. However, what happened to Nwogu this year? He's awful. I'm kind of surprised he hasn't been released. -
The outcome is whatever happened. You make an attribute about that outcome that is in no way an explanation of the outcome. it's an attribution. You could say a hard line drive that gets caught is bad luck or a bloop that drops is good luck. It doesn't matter what you call it. Both may be statistically unlikely outcomes, but luck has little to do with it except it is a convenient and common way for people to talk based on our shared verbal histories. Humans have a much longer history attributing events that are not easily understandable to mysterious entities than they do to physics and science. In other words, a guy who can make contact more often is likely to be considered more lucky than a guy who strikes out more. There are likely other unknown variables at work as well. Where luck (chance) comes into play may be weather events, etc. that are not controllable skills.
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High school pitchers aren’t automatically wild.
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The Reds defense is so bad
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Walkathon
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Great AB by Morel
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Madrigal and his running throws might have cost a hit there.
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You say that without any evidence. It's a matter of faith. Is it luck that the Reds 3rd baseman can't field a ground ball or Votto can no longer handle first? or whatever. Or Ross kept putting in relief pitchers who couldn't throw strikes or command the zone when throwing strikes? There is a lot of stuff that is controllable that happens in games. Is a seeing-eye bloop double lucky or a pitcher making a good pitch and a hitter doing one better by putting wood on it and it landing safely? I guess it depends on one's disposition with regard to skill (pitching and hitting) and outcome. Luck favors skill, it's not a 50/50 proposition.
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Luck is what we go to when we don't know the real reason.
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It's not sad. It means the model doesn't reflect reality very well right now. If the model is valid and they continue on this path they should win the division. So take solace in that. Over the last 20 years, we've been conditioned to statistics telling us things we don't know. Well in some cases, that's true. "All things equal the data show X should be better". Well, that's not the end of the story because all things are never equal. The question is why? Kyle and others like to chalk that up to luck (variability). But luck is a black box you can put anything into. There is obviously luck involved in the equation, but how much? are there other variables at work? What are they? Can the Cubs do anything about those variables? and on and on. When we see a stat that is supposed to model reality, and it doesn't, it doesn't mean that reality is off, it means that the model is not particularly good at what it is supposed to do. It could be because it needs more data or it could be for other reasons, but reality is never wrong.
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Maybe the will win the WS for Third-order wins
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Also, anyone who suggested trading Morel should put themselves in timeout for at least 10 minutes today.
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Rossy's Wall Bangers will score a baker's dozen today.
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Fullmer is good
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I absolutely adore Morel.
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Kerry Wood KO’d him. I think I remember him having a good game against Clemons.
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Morel missed more than 40 games to start the season. The Cubs would probably have won at least one or two more games if the let him start the season.
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Smyly blows
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For those that don’t follow the minors. Horton absolutely dominated in his first start in AA. Basically breezed through four innings. he may be in Wrigley next year this time.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-2-23
CubinNY replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
TIL: I can watch MiLB games and listen to the Cubs on the ap.
