I think it also shows how much people underrate pitchers when trying to pin a number on them. Yeah, in a perfect world, the Cubs would have the Tigers rotation of last year and have four significantly above-average starters. But they don't. I don't care what world you live in, the Cubs do not have one #1, three #4s and a #5, at least not unless everything goes wrong. They wouldn't need everything to go wrong, and they wouldn't need anybody to be any worse than they have been in recent years. I think the Cubs have locked up not being the worst rotation in baseball. The problem is, they aren't close to the best rotation in the NL, and without a top lineup either, they have nothing to hang their hat on. Without a great lineup or rotation, it's hard to be a great team. I get pissed when a top payroll Cubs team strives for averageness. Do you really think they're striving to be average? You seem focused on the idea that Hill could lose confidence in his fastball, Lilly could pitch like he did in 2005, Prior and Miller stay hurt and/or ineffective, and Marquis is just as bad as in 2006. Well then yeah, you've got a 1, three 4s and a 5. But what if Prior or Miller are close to where they once were, Lilly pitches like he did in 2002 or 2004, Marquis is close to where he was in 2004, and Hill pitches just like he did in the second half last year? Then you've got at least one #1, two #2s, and two #3s. What will happen almost certainly lies in between, but you seem dead set on the worst case scenario. And do you really think the cubs are striving to be average? I don't. When you start from the bottom, which last year was, you can't just make a quantum leap to having a great team on paper. They could've signed Zito, Schmidt, Soriano, Drew and Carlos Lee and handcuffed the payroll for at least the next five years. But without a good minor league system - and let's be honest, the Cubs sure don't have that - you lack the resources to trade for impact players, and you don't have a bunch of youngsters who will come up and make an impact next year (a la 2006 Florida Marlins). So the Cubs made the first few steps toward having a contending ballclub, which was to have a much more reliable rotation, to add one big bat, and then a couple of other players who at the very least take the place of some of the more inept players on last year's team.