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Call him Chef Hoyer-dee, because he is cooking. Wait... no, don’t actually call him that. It’s weird. Just let him cook. After a bevy of activity (by Cubs standards anyway) over the past week, Hoyer admitted during Cubs Convention on Friday night that the team is “in the fourth or fifth inning of our offseason.” It’s a good line, and if it came from anyone other than the very secretive Hoyer, I might be willing to dismiss it as just that--a fun thing to say at a fun event. But when it comes to putting information out there, Hoyer rarely admits anything publicly that he doesn’t want out there. Add in the fact that Craig Counsell referenced that line during his stage time at the convention on Saturday, and I think we should look at it as something of a reference point, and try to figure out what it means.
First of all, there is a pretty big difference between being in the fourth inning or being in the fifth inning. Being in the fourth means that we’ve only completed a third of the game, whereas being in the fifth means that the argument could be made that the game is half over. Big difference, right? This is part of the reason why I believe that Hoyer used this exact phrase: it leaves some leeway if some things don’t go the way he hopes they might go. If he only makes, say, one more signing and one or two more minor trades, he could argue that’s enough to constitute finishing the analogous nine innings. My guess is that he’s wanting to do more than that, though, and therein lies the disparity.
The First Three (or Four) Innings
I think we should approach this quite literally, and try to do so by looking at it from Hoyer’s point of view. What do we think he considers to be the moves made so far--inning by inning, as it were?
1st inning: The firing of David Ross and the hiring of Craig Counsell
The first move was not player-related. Some would argue it was bigger than that. I may or may not have argued that before Saturday, but I think I would definitely argue it now, after hearing Counsell field a question about bunting and answer it expertly, saying that history shows that he doesn't like to bunt, mainly because bunting is harder than people think. “We love the word 'sacrifice' and we all want to sacrifice for the team, that’s true, but if the sacrifice isn’t successful, it doesn’t help the team,” Counsell explained. He went on to note that one possible exception for this year’s team may come in the form of Pete Crow-Armstrong, explaining that he is fast and left-handed, two key priorities for even being considered to lay down a bunt. Honestly, my favorite part of that little tidbit is that it shows that Counsell has been thinking about how to properly use PCA, so he’s already done more with him than Ross ever did. But I digress…
2nd inning: The Signing of Shota Imanaga
The arrival of The Pitching Philosopher. If you missed his introduction, you should check it out. Imanaga is already a fan favorite after this epic start to his Cubs career:
To read up some more on Imanaga, check out some of the great work done by Matt Trueblood right here on North Side Baseball:
NEWS: Cubs Sign Starting Pitcher Shota Imanaga - Cubs - North Side Baseball
Shota Imanaga Cubs Deal Will Include Club Options, Opt-Outs, Incentives - Cubs - North Side Baseball
Bottom line, I think we are all very excited to see how Imanaga will use his imaginative approach to pitching to benefit the Cubs rotation. Whether he fits in as the second or third arm there, he makes the unit better, overall.
3rd inning: The Trade with the Dodgers for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte
If we want to read Jed’s comment extremely literally, we may say that this move involves acquiring two players, and therefore, each one represents a separate inning. But maybe the deal itself represents one inning. Maybe Jed isn’t sure, and that’s why he doesn’t know if he’s in the fourth inning or the fifth. It remains a mystery. The trade itself, though, is less mysterious. The Cubs traded away two promising 19-year-olds, in Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope, for two major league-ready players in Busch and Almonte. This trade makes perfect sense for both teams, as the Dodgers needed to make room on their 40-man roster, and the Cubs needed to add better players to their 40-man roster.
The acquisition of Busch is one of the more intriguing trades that the Cubs have made in years. He just isn’t the type of player that is typically available: a major league-ready talent who has somewhat aged out in the minor leagues, because there was simply nowhere for the Dodgers to play him. That scenario doesn’t occur very often, if ever. One other thing of note when it comes to Busch is that my belief is that his addition precludes the Cubs from signing Rhys Hoskins at this point. I think there was a need for a first baseman or designated hitter type that Hoskins would have filled, but they filled that need with Busch, instead.
For more on Busch, I would again invite you to read some of the great work done on this site in recent days.
This piece by Randy Holt, on Busch’s defensive value and limitations, is excellent:
The Defensive Past, Present, and Future of Michael Busch - Cubs - North Side Baseball
And this article by Jason Ross really gets down to the nitty-gritty on what makes Busch such a good hitter:
What to Expect from Michael Busch at the Plate - Cubs - North Side Baseball
Almonte is a nice addition to the bullpen, a 29-year-old righty with over 200 innings of big-league work, including some postseason experience in 2022. The Cubs needed some bullpen depth, and Almonte fits the bill nicely.
4th-9th Innings: What Should We Expect?
Technically, again, we may be in the fifth inning, but I don’t want to seem tedious so I won't go there again. Let’s explore what the Cubs could do from here on out.
Sign Cody Bellinger
It remains priority one. He was arguably the biggest topic of conversation at Cubs Con, being referenced by Hoyer, Dansby Swanson, Bruce Levine, and roughly a billion or so convention-goers. At this point, it would be shocking to me if the Cubs were to allow Bellinger to sign elsewhere. It reminds me a lot of early 2016, when Cubs fans were clamoring for Dexter Fowler to be re-signed. Ultimately, the team agreed, and a one-year deal got done. The big difference with Bellinger is that this will not be a one-year deal.
Signing Bellinger gets us to the fifth inning, with a really good idea of what the Cubs still need. They would have added two left-handed bats to the lineup in him and Busch--something they desperately needed to do. Both of them can also play first base, another need. Busch is also potentially a third baseman, while Bellinger is also a center fielder, two more positions where they entered the offseason with huge uncertainty. A lot of needs met, basically, but also a decent amount of remaining doubt. We don’t know if Busch can thrive at the major-league level. We don’t know if Christopher Morel or Busch can play the hot corner well enough to stick there. We don’t know if PCA will be ready. On the pitching side, we don’t know if Justin Steele is a true ace. We don’t know who the fifth (and/or sixth) starter will be. We don’t know if Adbert Alzolay is a lockdown closer. Even if he is, we don’t know if anyone else can step up to fill the eighth-inning role.
Let’s look at these last four (or five) moves through two different lenses. In the first case, let’s pretend the Cubs stay pretty conservative, and just do what they need to do to get to spring training. In the second, let’s get a little wild and dream a bit about what they could do if they decide it’s time to throw caution to the wind.
Conservative Approach
- Sign an affordable free-agent left-handed reliever
- Sign or trade for an experienced third baseman/utility player
- Sign or trade for an under-the-radar high-end reliever
- Trade some prospect depth for a quality swing starter
While this isn’t necessarily the bare minimum, it’s pretty close. If they were to do all of these moves, including Bellinger, they’d go into 2024 in much better shape than they left 2023. At the end of the day, that is important.
WILD Approach
- Sign Josh Hader
- Trade for Pete Alonso
- Trade for Dylan Cease
- Sign Matt Chapman
- Trade for Shane Bieber and Emmanuel Clase
What? I made it very clear I was going to throw caution to the wind. To be very, very clear though, I do not think the Cubs should do all of this. I don’t think anyone reading this thinks they should, either. But it’s interesting to realize that they probably could do this, if they wanted to completely gut their farm system and just go for it. They can afford Hader. They can afford Chapman. Those are the easy parts of this crazy scenario. The more difficult thing would be the trades. Alonso and Bieber are entering their walk years. Cease and Clase have been mentioned in plenty of trade rumors. They are all technically available, but at what cost? In no particular order, it would probably mean parting with most of the following players: PCA, Morel, Cade Horton, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara. I’m sorry but… no.
So what do I think will happen? I think it will be something closer to the conservative approach, but with some caution thrown in. I don’t think they will trade for Cease, but I think they may trade for Bieber. If they think the price tag for Bieber is too high, they may choose to wait until closer to the trade deadline and add a starter then. I’ve also noticed the rumors surrounding the Cubs and Jordan Montgomery haven't really abated since the signing of Imanaga, so there may be some smoke there. I don’t think they will sign Chapman, for reasons I’ve outlined in the past. The potential of Morel, Shaw, and now Busch are high enough that adding someone to block all three of them just doesn’t make sense to me. I still think there is a chance they sign Hader, just due to Counsell’s familiarity with him. The interesting thing left here is the potential to trade for Alonso. To me, that’s the “all-in” move that actually makes sense. It would cost a lot to get him: maybe Alcantara, maybe Caissie, maybe more than either of them alone. That price is obviously steep for a one-year rental, but Alonso in this lineup really works. He would bring more power to a lineup that desperately needs more power. It would allow Bellinger to play center field until PCA is ready. It would give them a very robust batting order that would look something like this:
1. Nico Hoerner, 2B (R)
2. Ian Happ, LF (S)
3. Cody Bellinger, CF (L)
4. Pete Alonso, 1B (R)
5. Seiya Suzuki, RF (R)
6. Dansby Swanson, SS (R)
7. Christopher Morel, 3B (R)
8. Michael Busch, DH (L)
9. Yan Gomes, C (R)
Not bad, right? I could definitely talk myself into that lineup (with a strong pitching staff) being a contender this season. But I could also talk myself into holding onto most of these prospects until the team is slightly closer to contention for a World Series. Either way, I look forward to the next four or five innings of the offseason, and I also look forward to myself remaining as tedious as ever.
What do you think, though? How would you like to see Jed finish out this offseason?
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