Projecting What a Dylan Cease Trade Package Could Look Like

2 hours ago, Andrew Wright said:

Amid the recent rumors of the Cubs being interested in San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease, there are many different trade packages being thrown together by media outlets and media members. Let's take our own stab at what a Cease trade could look like for Chicago.

Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

One very important thing to remember is that Dylan Cease is in the final year of his contract and will be just a one-year rental. He seems inclined to head to free agency, and likely to command a truly humongous contract when he does so. That should knock down the price of Cease a little, but then again, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been known to stick firmly to his asking price when he's engaged in a trade negotiation. So, after saying all that, here are two potential trade packages.

• Cubs Receive: RHP Dylan Cease
• Padres Receive: RF Alexander Canario, LHP Jordan Wicks, IF/OF James Triantos, OF Kevin Alcántara

Wicks and Canario have sort of become odd men out on the Cubs roster, and could both benefit from more playing time on a new team. Triantos is a bit blocked by Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson controlling the middle infield for Chicago, and Alcantara has slowly fallen in prospect rankings.

That package feels steep, but it's one way to get the deal done. This second trade one is an even bigger pill to gulp down, but it will also include another piece coming from San Diego to Chicago.

• Cubs Receive: RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Robert Suarez, cash
• Padres Receive: LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Ben Brown, RF Alexander Canario, IF/OF James Triantos, OF Kevin Alcántara

The addition of Brown would certainly entice San Diego, as he has several years of team control left and showed promise during his first season in the majors. He's a more valuable trade chip than Suarez, who's fairly expensive for a reliever and has a player-friendly contract with two player options after 2025. The Padres could send along a little cash to make this deal work for the Cubs, ensuring they have a cushion beneath the competitive-balance tax threshold—which they certainly won't exceed this year. Still, the idea of adding Brown to secure Suarez is that with both Cease and Suarez in place, the Cubs could be something like a lock for the NL Central. They'd become serious threats to the Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies, and surely surpass the Padres for 2025.

Trading both Canario and Alcántara would force the team to sign a backup outfielder, which they might already be trying to do. They'd have to do it on the cheap, too, because Cease and Suarez will make a combined $23.75 million this year. This feels like an overpay, but trades like these often must. The good news is that the Cubs would still have Javier Assad, Cade Horton, and Brandon Birdsell as rotation depth; Owen Caissie as outfield depth; Vidal Bruján, Gage Workman, Jon Berti, and Benjamin Cowles as infield depth; and two new open 40-man roster spots, to be used on any of their minor-league signings or on adding Matt Shaw when he wins the third-base job in March.

Ultimately, the second deal probably shoves too many chips in on 2025. Maybe the first one does, too. As the rumors continue to swirl, though, it's hard not to keep pining. Cease and Suarez both have transformative potential for a playoff hopeful's pitching staff.

 

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Both are too much. That is giving SD more for one year of Cease than they gave the WS for two years of his control. Wicks, Canario and one of either Triantos or Alcantara is actually too steep too, but maybe that needs to happen for a deal. Definitely not both. And no way the Cubs should add Neown for Suarez. Maybe Pearson, but not Brown. 

Yeah, this is 2 guys who both appear on at least some top 100 lists, an MLB starter with mid rotation upside and an MLB ready bench bat for 1 year of cease? Hard pass.

Thats way too much for one year of Cease. No thanks

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Both are too much. That is giving SD more for one year of Cease than they gave the WS for two years of his control. Wicks, Canario and one of either Triantos or Alcantara is actually too steep too, but maybe that needs to happen for a deal. Definitely not both. And no way the Cubs should add Neown for Suarez. Maybe Pearson, but not Brown. 

 

Padres are going to make a deal for Dylan Cease feel like a molar extraction.  Not because AJ Preller is greedy or evil but because it’s going to be an extremely competitive process to trade for Cease…and because AJ Preller is greedy and just a tiny bit evil.

If there are any Cubs with an abundance of talent, upside, controllability, record of good health and a low price tag that’s who the Padres will demand. Matt Shaw and Assad are those guys - once Preller has targeted them - it’s them or nothing.  He just moves on. 

1 hour ago, Statyllus said:

Padres are going to make a deal for Dylan Cease feel like a molar extraction.  Not because AJ Preller is greedy or evil but because it’s going to be an extremely competitive process to trade for Cease…and because AJ Preller is greedy and just a tiny bit evil.

If there are any Cubs with an abundance of talent, upside, controllability, record of good health and a low price tag that’s who the Padres will demand. Matt Shaw and Assad are those guys - once Preller has targeted them - it’s them or nothing.  He just moves on. 

Preller can just move on down the line, appears the Cubs may have told him so, because, now, there's speculation about the Mets being involved.

3 hours ago, Statyllus said:

Padres are going to make a deal for Dylan Cease feel like a molar extraction.  Not because AJ Preller is greedy or evil but because it’s going to be an extremely competitive process to trade for Cease…and because AJ Preller is greedy and just a tiny bit evil.

If there are any Cubs with an abundance of talent, upside, controllability, record of good health and a low price tag that’s who the Padres will demand. Matt Shaw and Assad are those guys - once Preller has targeted them - it’s them or nothing.  He just moves on. 

No problem. Then he moves on. 

As others have said thats way to much for Cease (considering the Cubs had him before trading to the Sox) it's a thought but not a trade that would be done 

This is actually an easy decision. If Cease is only going to be here for a season and then hit the FA market, then it would be shortsighted to trade away so much future talent. But, if you can work out a deal that keeps him in a Cub uniform for 2-3 seasons, then such an investment makes sense. But what you have to spend and what you get back has to be analyzed.