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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

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    Featured Comments

    We Got The Whole 9

    We Got The Whole 9 1,144

    Posted

    Yeah this makes me nervous. Please at least don't get killed by walks. 

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Just now, DrCub said:

    3 of the 5Ks they showed were a decent amount outside the zone.  Plus, we’ve missed the few mistakes he’s made. 

    To be fair, especially to Shaw, the likely reason he chased the fastball is because he got stuck with a strike-2 call that was *not* a strike (per Statcast). Good pitching; Pivetta went fastball outside the zone further than the bad called strike and generated a whiff. 

    On one hand, yes, Shaw should not swing at that. But that's also good pitching and a little bit of favorable umping on the call. It's not as cut and dry as one thing or another. 

    JHBulls

    JHBulls 856

    Posted

    If bringing your 8th/9th inning guy into the 5th inning in the postseason doesn’t tell Jed that the manager doesn’t trust the bullpen, then I don’t know what will. 

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Based on the radio attendance guesses, the Cubs can't even sell out Wrigley for playoff games?  Granted it is a weekday game, but are there really a few thousand open seats?

    I think a lot of scalpers bought them with the intent on selling them for a profit. There were so many cheap tickets on the secondary sites leading up to the game 

    Tryptamine

    Tryptamine 2,034

    Posted

    This offense pissing down their leg was the most predictable thing ever. I'm setting the over/under at 3.5 runs in the post season for the Cubs.

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 84

    Posted (edited)

    Our bullpen is definitely not shutting them down for 5 innings so maybe try and score some runs.

    Edited by Hortonhearsawho
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    I don't love pulling Boyd here, but I get it.  I'm just not sure the Cubs have the pen to pull this off.

    Don’t like this move at all. Hopefully it works. 

    gflore34

    gflore34 966

    Posted

    Regardless of the outcome of this game, Tucker serves no purpose in the lineup.  He’s not right, had e few pitches today he crushes and has done nothing. Sit him and go with Mo at DH.

    • Love 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JHBulls said:

    If bringing your 8th/9th inning guy into the 5th inning in the postseason doesn’t tell Jed that the manager doesn’t trust the bullpen, then I don’t know what will. 

    I don’t think he was back long enough to re-establish himself as one of the back end guys

    • Like 2
    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JHBulls said:

    If bringing your 8th/9th inning guy into the 5th inning in the postseason doesn’t tell Jed that the manager doesn’t trust the bullpen, then I don’t know what will. 

    I don't think that's what this says. 

    Another way; this is a pivotal moment. The Padres have their best hitters up and the Cubs offense hasn't gotten going. You cannot afford a run here. Mentally and on the scoreboard. So bring in a guy you think will shut this horsefeathers down regardless of whatever designation he has. The Cubs still have Kitttredge and Keller from the right side.

    • Like 5
    squally1313

    squally1313 2,227

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JHBulls said:

    If bringing your 8th/9th inning guy into the 5th inning in the postseason doesn’t tell Jed that the manager doesn’t trust the bullpen, then I don’t know what will. 

    You've got to face Tatis and Machado two more times (hopefully not three). There's already a guy on, might as well maximize your chances on this trip through.

    • Like 1
    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    Outs are outs, but yikes.

    BABIP giveth and BABIP taketh away.

    ILMindState

    ILMindState 277

    Posted

    I hate that virtual ad in CF

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,227

    Posted

    There's a little bit of BABIP luck back in our direction. Need to start putting the ball in play and not trying to take 96 at the belt into the bleachers.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

    Outs are outs, but yikes.

    BABIP giveth and BABIP taketh away.

    In his defense, both of those swings only had an xBA of .300. 

    JHBulls

    JHBulls 856

    Posted

    Okay guys, fair enough about brining Palencia in. He got the job done. 

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

    I am ready for Seiya dong

    I Love You Elf GIF by MOODMAN

    Eeyore

    Eeyore 199

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

    I am ready for Seiya dong

    You got it 

    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    Padres put Miller in any time of the game they need outs. So no reason the Cubs had to save Palencia. I didn’t like the move because I didn’t trust Palencia. But the reason behind it does make sense, assuming Counsell felt Palencia is the guy to lock it down. 

    We Got The Whole 9

    We Got The Whole 9 1,144

    Posted

    horsefeathers yeah give em that Seiya dong

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Tangled Up in Plaid 409

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

    I am ready for Seiya dong

    Pay this man.

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,519

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

    I am ready for Seiya dong

    were not worthy waynes world GIF

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1


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