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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?

    Brandon Glick
    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

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    Featured Comments

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Posted

    Just now, Stratos said:

    I could see Ballesteros hitting for Shaw or the catcher late in the game tomorrow vs RHP.

    Even if Tucker walks this winter Caissie seems like the odd man out next year unless there's an injury.

    Is Caissie alive? I've haven't heard anyone say anything about him since Pete slide-tackled him.

    Stratos

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

    Is Caissie alive? I've haven't heard anyone say anything about him since Pete slide-tackled him.

    I saw him in the dugout after the win today on tv

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Stratos said:

    I saw him in the dugout after the win today on tv

    Would he still be in concussion protocol or is that over by now?

    Bertz

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

    Is Caissie alive? I've haven't heard anyone say anything about him since Pete slide-tackled him.

    I believe I read that he's back to practicing 

    Basically him and Amaya needed the regular season to last about a week or so longer, but alas now they're gonna be relegated to cheerleading. 

    mk49

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

    I could see Ballesteros hitting for Shaw or the catcher late in the game tomorrow vs RHP.

    Even if Tucker walks this winter Caissie seems like the odd man out next year unless there's an injury.

    IMO, Tucker is the worst hitter we have at the moment.  I'd rather see Mo, instead of Tucker as a DH, but they won't do it.

    Next year, assuming Tucker is not coming back, I think Seiya, RF and Mo, DH will fill the spot for Cassie, most of the games.  

    squally1313

    Posted

    People went from railing for Ballesteros to replace Suzuki to railing for Ballesteros to replace Tucker and evidently learned nothing in the process. 

    • Like 5
    • Love 1
    Irrelevant Dude

    Posted

    1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

    People went from railing for Ballesteros to replace Suzuki to railing for Ballesteros to replace Tucker and evidently learned nothing in the process. 

    The difference is we know Tucker hasn't been physically right for months.  I don't think anyone would be pining to replace a healthy Tucker just because he's slumping, but this isn't a healthy Tucker.  There isn't any reason to believe he is suddenly going to flip the Seiya switch, since he probably isn't healthy enough to do that.

    No, the Cubs won't replace him.  But I get why people would suggest it.

    • Like 1
    squally1313

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    The difference is we know Tucker hasn't been physically right for months.  I don't think anyone would be pining to replace a healthy Tucker just because he's slumping, but this isn't a healthy Tucker.  There isn't any reason to believe he is suddenly going to flip the Seiya switch, since he probably isn't healthy enough to do that.

    No, the Cubs won't replace him.  But I get why people would suggest it.

    The below is since July 3rd.

    image.thumb.png.ed299852a4445f3982ac1492d07f0084.png

    Jason Ross

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    The difference is we know Tucker hasn't been physically right for months.  I don't think anyone would be pining to replace a healthy Tucker just because he's slumping, but this isn't a healthy Tucker.  There isn't any reason to believe he is suddenly going to flip the Seiya switch, since he probably isn't healthy enough to do that.

    No, the Cubs won't replace him.  But I get why people would suggest it.

    I actually am not entirely certain that the bold is true, but it's because I believe that the real root of the thing comes back to misguided feelings on Tucker as well as misguided feelings on Ballesteros.

    When it comes to Tucker. I think many have resigned themselves to this as a one-and-done year, In other words, he's not a "real" Cub to many. They have decided that his August is somehow the real Tucker, or that he couldn't possibly DH on a nagging injury. We have seen the fanbase at times look for reasons to throw fits about him at any moment since July.

    On the Ballesteros aspect, I think an old Family Guy skit explains the concept really well but rookies who we have little MLB sample size exist as a mystery box that could be anything to many of the fanbase and Ballesteros is that mystery box. He's had some recent success too - success I'm a little wary of being capable of being replicated against the best pitchers in baseball (who you should expect to face almost exclusively in the playoffs). And because he'll be with the Cubs for the next six years, he is the future. 

    Combined, I think the injury is a cover story for what would be happening if Tucker was slumping as well. That's not saying you're doing that, but I think a lot of the root of this comes down to all of this. I don't think it's always conscious either. 

    For the record: Kyle Tucker over Moises Ballesteros is the correct choice barring him being so hurt he can't swing. Tucker was 20% better at hitting MLB pitchers than Mo Baller was at hitting Triple-A pitchers.  

    • Like 1
    Brian707

    Posted

    10 hours ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

    Am I crazy to think Zaidman’s home run calls were good?

    It was actually not terrible 

    Brian707

    Posted

    9 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    Bunting is not bad baseball, there is a reason it's been done for 100+ years.  The '16 Cubs did squeeze bunts and had massive success, if I recall Jason Heyward (fresh off his massive contract) bunted in the 8th or 9th inning against the Giants in that last game (although he didn't execute it properly, he was a bum) 

    A bad result doesn't justify a bad process.  Ian Happ doesn't bunt because he's a veteran player who thinks it's above him.. and that's where the criticism comes in 

    Just because it was done for 100 years doesn't mean its the best move.

    Come On Now GIF by First We Feast

    Geographyhater8888

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

     

    When it comes to Tucker. I think many have resigned themselves to this as a one-and-done year, In other words, he's not a "real" Cub to many. They have decided that his August is somehow the real Tucker, or that he couldn't possibly DH on a nagging injury. We have seen the fanbase at times look for reasons to throw fits about him at any moment since July.

     

     

     

    This makes the Ian Happ hate even more confusing.

    Brian707

    Posted

    8 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    Those are fair points but the best team in baseball, Milwaukee, plays small ball.  You know who doesn't?  Craig Counsell, who has never won a ring and Milwaukee is just as good or better since he left.  I love CC and I get that analytics is his thing, but it doesn't mean that bunting doesn't have its place in baseball.  By the way, Ian Happ has 0 career bunts, a guy like Freddie Freeman who is a 1st ballot hall of famer has 2 career bunts.  So yes I do think it's fair to question if it's an entitlement issue with him.  That's who he thinks he is in his mind.  He's a decent player, a tick above average.  

    Also, calling me negative every time we have a slight disagreement is lame dude, and comes across as dismissive.  I'm obviously thrilled the Cubs won, doesn't mean I can't provide minor constructive commentary about other things I want to see them doing 

    Dude, you posted about 20 times when they were down 1-0 all negativity.  Between this and your bunting comments just admit you are a meatball 

    Geographyhater8888

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Caesar said:

    I never said he D sucks . I said he makes crucial errors on easy plays in big games. Today he did well but don’t get ahead of yourself. If he hits it will offset any errors. His bat has been a disappointment with the Cubs but if he gets hot than it’s easier to overlook the other mistakes. Remember you are bringing back up. If he makes a critical error make sure you bring it up to me like you’ve done. 

    What were you expecting? He’s a league average hitter and a gold glove defender who’s worth 4 wins. Your issue is with Jed on this. If you wanted an elite MI bat then Trea Turner is your guy for 11 years/$300 million. He’s paid accordingly for his production at 7/$177. He’s not Jason Heyward.

    • Like 1
    Jason Ross

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

    This makes the Ian Happ hate even more confusing.

    I think the Ian Happ thing is very different. For Happ, I believe the dislike (or complaints) stem from a few things. Largely, I think it comes back to his style being "good not great". He does a lot of things good. Defensively (for a LF'er, a low bar) he's good. Offensively, he's good, but nothing stands out. So he's often overlooked. He has no bankable singular skill that carries the day. 

    • Like 1
    Geographyhater8888

    Posted (edited)

    27 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    I think the Ian Happ thing is very different. For Happ, I believe the dislike (or complaints) stem from a few things. Largely, I think it comes back to his style being "good not great". He does a lot of things good. Defensively (for a LF'er, a low bar) he's good. Offensively, he's good, but nothing stands out. So he's often overlooked. He has no bankable singular skill that carries the day. 

    Oh I know. It was more of humorous observation. He’s still been a top 10 hitting left fielder every season since 2022. I think his contract plays a role in some of that scrutiny too. $20 million in 2025=$20 million/year a decade ago+ in the eyes of many. Take it up with Jed then.

    Edited by Geographyhater8888
    • Love 1
    squally1313

    Posted

    The only True Cub is Moises ballesteros. Because he hasn’t struggled for a week plus yet. If that happens, he will be tossed to the trash heap like the rest of this garbage team. 

    • Like 3
    • Haha 1
    Connor McConnor

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

    Dude, you posted about 20 times when they were down 1-0 all negativity.  Between this and your bunting comments just admit you are a meatball 

    We are on the Cubs message board at 8 AM.  We are all meatballs. 

    Banedon

    Posted

    Going back and reading this thread pre-Seiya homer is high comedy.  Everyone absolutely sure about everything that they ended up wrong about.

    Rcal10

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

    We are on the Cubs message board at 8 AM.  We are all meatballs. 

    I’m even worse. I live in Arizona. It isn’t even 6 AM and I am in the message board.😅

    BigbadB

    Posted

    My observations of this game and this thread.......

    1. Why is that Miller dude a reliever? If that guy can consistently hit 100 MPH and have that great of a slider, how is he not in the rotation? 

    2. I'm bunting Happ in that situation with a 1 run lead with the shadows causing problems for hitters. Not a fan of bunting in general, but in this instance.......

    3. I don't remember how I did in the NSBB popular poster contest, but it's probably because I was too busy cutting up my Blockbuster Video membership card or being distracted by helicopters flying over my house looking for a missing child. (You are welcome, IMB and Goony!)

    • Haha 1
    Jason Ross

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

    My observations of this game and this thread.......

    1. Why is that Miller dude a reliever? If that guy can consistently hit 100 MPH and have that great of a slider, how is he not in the rotation? 

    2. I'm bunting Happ in that situation with a 1 run lead with the shadows causing problems for hitters. Not a fan of bunting in general, but in this instance.......

    3. I don't remember how I did in the NSBB popular poster contest, but it's probably because I was too busy cutting up my Blockbuster Video membership card or being distracted by helicopters flying over my house looking for a missing child. (You are welcome, IMB and Goony!)

    Miller has a few injuries in his history including a UCL sprain. He's started some games in the minors, but he's never gone very long. He's just not a starter.

    Much of the reason he can consistently hit 100mph and have such a good slider is because he only throws 20 pitches a game. If he threw, 80, he'd probably lose a few mph and some of the ability to throw his slider. Daniel Palencia has a slider that grades out really good on Stuff+ and hits 100+mph and he isn't a SP either (anymore, his issue was really walk related, but he also wasn't averaging 100mph in the MiLB when he was a SP either). 

    Just is what it is. It's what makes someone like Skenes and Skubal that special that they can carry 100mph into the 7th. They're insane.

    gflore34

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    Miller has a few injuries in his history including a UCL sprain. He's started some games in the minors, but he's never gone very long. He's just not a starter.

    Much of the reason he can consistently hit 100mph and have such a good slider is because he only throws 20 pitches a game. If he threw, 80, he'd probably lose a few mph and some of the ability to throw his slider. Daniel Palencia has a slider that grades out really good on Stuff+ and hits 100+mph and he isn't a SP either (anymore, his issue was really walk related, but he also wasn't averaging 100mph in the MiLB when he was a SP either). 

    Just is what it is. It's what makes someone like Skenes and Skubal that special that they can carry 100mph into the 7th. They're insane.

    Add Greene and maybe, Crochet to that list - he hit 100 on the last pitch he threw yesterday.

    ILMindState

    Posted

    Future Dodger and fake Cubs player Kyle Tucker has good career numbers against Cease. I think he'll have a shut the haters up moment in today's game.

    • Like 1
    PeanutPunch33

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Brian707 said:

    Dude, you posted about 20 times when they were down 1-0 all negativity.  Between this and your bunting comments just admit you are a meatball 

    I am a meatball 

    • Haha 1



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