How Alex Bregman Got Right at the Plate, by Turning Inward and Letting It Travel

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Joe Puetz-Imagn Images

The differences aren't huge and obvious. In baseball, 'huge and obvious' is usually quickly re-rendered 'desperate and exploitable'. Alex Bregman is a better hitter now than he was a month ago, but the changes he's made have all been subtle. He's a couple inches farther off the plate, but only that much. He's slightly more closed in his stance, but only that much. The one glaring alteration isn't in anything he's doing that pitchers can force him not to do; it's in how deep he lets the ball travel. His average intercept point in the month of July is about 2.5 inches deeper than it was in the previous two months, which is something like adding a mile per hour to your fastball: helpful, and hard to counter.

Bregman has hit the ball especially well since the All-Star break, but truthfully, his process has been ahead of his results all season, and he started to round into form even before the break. He used the Cubs' off day at home on July 2 as a chance to implement some changes to his stance, stride and timing in the batter's box, and ever since, he's been much more like the player the Cubs hoped they had signed to a five-year deal over the winter.

Bregman's bat speed is down. That might not be permanent, but it's turned out to be persistent. As a result, he's spent much of the season hunting for the adjustments that would let him hit the way he's always hit despite a bit less explosive rotation. It took a long time to find it. Here's where he finally did. These are visuals depicting Bregman's stance, stride and average contact point on swings in May (left) and July (right):

What he eventually figured out was that hitting the same way he always has isn't currently possible. There might be a lingering physical limitation tied to last year's quad strain, or this might just be Bregman's new normal, but to be a successful and well-rounded hitter at this point, he needs to so some things differently. Thus, this month, he's moved slightly away from the plate, and turned slightly inward to close his stance. That gives him more room to get on plane while the bat is behind his body, and a better chance of getting it into the hitting zone on time and square to the incoming pitch. He's been less susceptible to changes of speeds this month because of this.

However, that comes at some cost. Were Bregman to try to keep hitting the ball out in front of himself by the same amount as he did in the past with this adjustment to his stance, he would be late on most fastballs and too early on most breaking stuff. Instead, as you can see by the yellow dots in the visuals above, he's letting the ball travel a bit more. It's not about starting later; it's about knowing that he has a bit more work to do to get to the ball and square it up well. 

Bregman has also shortened his stride, which keeps him a bit more engaged through the core and makes it easier to stay through the ball and drive it to all fields from his default hitting position. He's had several opposite-field extra-base hits this month, and that's not a coincidence; it's a product of his altered approach and setup.

This is a huge deal for the Cubs. They need to pour all of their time and energy over the next five days into adding pitching before the MLB trade deadline. They couldn't afford to upgrade their lineup, even if it were obvious exactly where an extra bat would fit without cramping the style of Craig Counsell. Offensively, they need to be carried the rest of the way by the guys already on the roster, and Bregman has been arguably the most glaring underachiever in the lineup this year. If he's now turning things on—if this shift in where and how he stands and where he tries to catch the ball in the path of his swing continues to work—it transforms the team. A fully operational Bregman makes this batting order brutal for an opposing pitcher. He's still not quite that guy right now, but it's getting easier to see that guy showing up by September and October with each passing day.

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[Victor Reichman]

Bregman has changed from being a strictly pull hitter to using the entire field. His home run to right proved this point. He had the comfort of the short porch at Houston and the LF wall in Boston. The Cubs down the line are 353 and 355, actually more than most parks. It is wise that he will expand to RF, much as Hoerner does.

 

[Jason Ross]

27 minutes ago, Victor Reichman said:

Bregman has changed from being a strictly pull hitter to using the entire field. His home run to right proved this point. He had the comfort of the short porch at Houston and the LF wall in Boston. The Cubs down the line are 353 and 355, actually more than most parks. It is wise that he will expand to RF, much as Hoerner does.

 

So...that's just not true. He's pulling the ball this season (47.9%) more than his career average (45.4%). And his upturn in production has not seen him go to RF any more (17.3% since June 28th compared to 17.6% this year and 19.9% over his career). 

And going to RF is not good. It's not good for Hoerner. It's not good for Bregman. It's not good for anyone, really. Balls hit to the pull side, league wide, are far better. They land for more hits. They are hit harder. They result in more home runs.

Pull: .443 wOBA, 90.5 EV, .359 AVG
Oppo: .310 wOBA, 85 EV, .294 AVG

And just to show you on Hoerner:

Pull: 115 wRC+ .321 BA (career: 154 wRC+, .355 BA)
Oppo: 49 wRC+ .248 BA (career: 80 wRC+, .302 BA)

This is one of the oddities of Bregman's year: he's pulling off the ball and his GB% to the pullside is way up. So his pull numbers are really low. That's not normal. In fact, it could be very well explained as Matt did in the article; he's too far ahead of breaking balls.

Last year Bregman, to the pull side, was a 175 wRC+ hitter. Over his career he's over 190 wRC+. This year he's under 100. This is not a unique Wrigley Field issue. Wrigley is 11th in pull wOBA and 11th in xwOBA. It's true that Wrigley Field is deeper in the wells than others. But it hasn't affected the pull-side data significantly. It's performing as an above average offensive environment for pull-hitters.

The goal for Bregman is not "hit the ball to RF" more. It shouldn't be the goal for anyone. Pulling the ball is better than not. It's about figuring out why Bregman is struggling when he pulls it and how to fix that.