Cubs' Difficult Decision to Demote Moisés Ballesteros Should Yield Long-Term Benefits

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Moisés Ballesteros' second-half audition in 2025 was so impressive that the Chicago Cubs felt comfortable handing him the reigns to the designated hitter spot full-time in 2026. Through 66 plate appearances, he posted a .298/.394/.474 line with proportionally-appropriate 18.2 percent strikeout and 13.6 percent walk rates and a 143 wRC+. The power remained fairly modest (.175 ISO), but he showcased enough of his steadiness that the role was his ahead of this season.

Unfortunately, that small sample has not translated into increased success for Ballesteros. He's gotten his opportunity and even the occasional assignment behind the plate, but the iteration of "Mo Baller" the team is seeing over a much more expanded sample in 2026 is a far cry from last year's version.

Prior to his gut-punch of a demotion, Ballesteros accrued 175 plate appearances to his name. His line reads a disappointing .231/.303/.385, with a 20.6 percent strikeout rate and a 9.7 percent walk rate. The power that did manifest last season has basically evaporated so far this year, with an ISO of just .154. There's a bit of bad luck baked in there, with a .259 batting average on balls in play, but it otherwise adds up to a hitter that has been below average as illustrated by his 93 wRC+.

Much of the reason for this has come as a result of Ballesteros' inability to adjust to how opposing pitchers are working him. 

Part of what made Ballesteros such an appealing hitter for this group was his contact-oriented profile, supplemented by his ability to make adjustments. He's a mature hitter with fluid mechanics capable of handling various parts of the zone with good efficiency. That combination of factors is what had many believing he could stave off regression after a hot start to the season. Yet the regression monster has, nevertheless, come for Ballesteros due to declining battled ball luck working in conjunction with a deliberate approach on the part of opposing pitchers.

The waning luck in his batted-ball fortunes is a little bit less in his control, of course. Ballesteros went for a .345 BABIP in April before it plummeted to just .122 in May. It's rose back up to .300 in June, but that leads us into the second issue with Ballesteros' performance at the plate:

Ballesteros' bat path is leading to him both leaning a bit on the late side and consistently under fastballs. Despite above-average bat speed (73.3 MPH), he's working with a 9 degree attack angle that lands close to the flatter side. The former can't compensate for the latter. Which is why we're seeing this kind of trend from opposing arms:

In kind of an inverse from what the rest of the Cub hitters are getting, Ballesteros is getting a steady diet of fastballs rather than an increase in breaking pitches. His 51.8 percent rate of fastballs seen represents a seven-percent increase from the season's opening month. That's problematic for Ballesteros, given his run value of -3 against four-seam fastballs and a -1 run value against sinkers. 

That distinction is important, too. Because while the overall fastball rate has jumped as the months have progressed, sinkers have become an especially relied-upon pitch for opposing hurlers. The nature of his flat bat means that the sinker is going to yield the type of groundball contact that it's designed to. That's when you get something like the obscene 65 percent groundball rate we saw from Ballesteros this month.

Of course, the breaking pitches still play their role in all of this. Once pitchers get ahead of Ballesteros via the fastball, whether four-seam or sinker, they're able to get him with a pitch type against which he has a 29.6 percent swing-and-miss rate. That's his highest against any of the three primary pitch groups, which also fails to mention that breaking balls generate the lowest rate of hard contact of any pitching against Ballesteros (36.1 percent). 

This all means that a significant adjustment must be made on the part of Ballesteros for him to begin to reach the levels of success he demonstrated last year. Either he needs to adjust his swing to get out on the fastball quicker, or adjust the plane of the swing so that he can generate more positive contact against the increasing amount of sinkers and the steady amount of breaking pitches.

Luckily, it appears that at least one of those adjustments was beginning to manifest just before his trip back to Iowa. Ballesteros had an intercept point just three inches in front of the plate from March to May that has since progressed to 6.5 inches in June. That could help him to combat fastballs, at least early in counts. The mechanical adjustment likely remains the more paramount one, however, considering his rapidly rising groundball rate.

Regardless, that the Cubs have let their young bat go this far into the season without mechanical adjustments does look like something of an indictment of this coaching staff. As opposing pitchers adjust to a young hitter, there's a certain onus on the staff to aid in making the proper adjustments. Craig Counsell quipped about not messing with Ballesteros given his natural IQ. Perhaps some time in Triple-A will allow the organization to revisit that approach.

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