Can Javier Assad Be the Savior of Cubs' Swooning Pitching Staff?

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Image courtesy of © John Hefti-Imagn Images

If you stick with something long enough, eventually, you will see the fruits of your labor. Until very recently, as they flirted with a losing record, it seemed the 2026 North Siders were the glaring exception to that rule. The Chicago Cubs' persistent hardships have sent expectations for this squad speeding in the wrong direction.

If Javier Assad is thinking about that, he certainly doesn't show it. Though buffeted by the baseball gods, injuries, and (at times) his own organization, Assad has remained unflappable. At no point was this clearer than in his outing Friday night in San Francisco. 

For any successful big-league pitcher, prosperity originates from having a steady, repeatable process that doesn't change much from game to game. Yes, the strategy for attacking a specific offense or an individual batter may change, but the routine, delivery, and execution do not. What's made Assad such an attractive option for Craig Counsell as he navigates the club's pitching plight is his righty's nasty, increasingly unhittable off-speed pitches. 

To date, Assad has logged 38 1/3 innings on the mound in the majors, with a critical 6 1/3 of them coming in their tilt with the Giants at the start of the weekend. Before fans in the ballpark could even settle into their seats with Ghirardelli sundaes in hand, Assad treated the many Chicago enthusiasts in attendance to something just as sweet as the ice cream in those bowls. For his second straight start, Assad clocked at least six innings with no runs allowed, halting a string of games in which the Cubs' pitching made mediocre lineups look much more threatening. His arsenal focuses primarily on breaking stuff, with six of his seven pitch types leaning toward movement rather than velocity, but his sinker is his nastiest and most confident weapon. 

Per Baseball Savant, Assad deploys his sinker 40.5% of the time, with his cut fastball sitting in a distant second at 16.3%. What makes these and his other pitches so effective is what he allows batters to do with them, which (lately) isn't much. Assad cruised through quick, mostly harmless innings because opponents aren't getting a good piece of the bat on the ball. Though his barrels are slightly up from last season, Assad has been forcing batters to top the ball at a staggering rate. He's getting batters to hit the top of the ball at a 33.6% clip, resulting in weak grounders or otherwise painless outcomes for the defense. The nature of these pitches puts less stress on him, creating more low-leverage situations per inning and allowing him to stay within his game plan. 

The squad's best-laid plans haven't materialized for over a month at this point, but with Assad toeing the rubber, the offense is resurfacing in at least a facsimile of its expected imposing form. Cashing in on early run-scoring opportunities changes the entire complexion of a contest, and with heartening production from the likes of Michael Busch, Assad had an easier time getting his feet under him, with knowledge that his squad's offense was ready to do their part. Punching in good work while punching out the opposition has the murmurs of this club's resurgence growing just a little louder. 

While it's far too early to call Chicago's few encouraging contests last week a trend, it has at least provided convincing evidence that the version of this team we thought was lost without a trace still exists. Assad, who got this latest start because Matthew Boyd still isn't ready (and might not be for a while) will be key to their efforts to be that club for the foreseeable future.

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