Swapping Kyle Tucker for Alex Bregman Has Led to A Bizarre Cubs Lineup Paradox

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

When the Chicago Cubs parted ways with Kyle Tucker and turned to Alex Bregman during the offseason, the logic seemed straightforward. Tucker had been one of the organization's primary sources of production from the left side of the plate, while Bregman arrived with the reputation of being one of the most consistent right-handed hitters of his generation.

On paper, the transition pointed toward a more balanced lineup and one that would be less dependent on left-handed bats.

Two months into the 2026 season, however, reality tells a very different story. Chicago's right-handed hitters own a collective 98 wRC+ this season. Left-handed hitters have produced a 116 wRC+, while switch-hitters have posted a 127 mark. The split is striking on its own, but it becomes even more interesting when you look at who is actually driving the offense.

This story is not really about Bregman. It's about Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ.

Michael Busch's Evolution Into Cubs' Best Hitter

Few developments on the Cubs' roster have been as important as Busch's emergence.

Since April 21, the first baseman has posted a 163 wRC+, placing him among the most productive hitters in Major League Baseball. Since May 1, he has been even better, compiling a 171 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR.

MLB leaders in fWAR since May 1

Player	Team	fWAR
Bobby Witt Jr.	Royals	2.0
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Cubs	1.7
Michael Busch	Cubs	1.6
Luis Arraez	Giants	1.6
Cody Bellinger	Yankees	1.6

Busch's presence on that list helps answer one of the most intriguing questions surrounding the Cubs this season: how did they absorb Tucker's departure without suffering a significant drop in offensive production?

Part of the answer is that Busch had already shown signs of becoming this player. In 2025, he posted an outstanding 151 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, a figure that actually surpassed Tucker's 137 mark in the same split. The ability to punish right-handers was already there. What has changed is the consistency with which he has sustained that production during the first months of 2026.

This season, Busch owns a 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and remains one of the biggest reasons the Cubs continue to receive elite production from the left side of the plate despite Tucker's departure.

Pete Crow-Armstrong Eliminated the Biggest Weakness in His Offensive Profile

If Busch has been the quiet engine of the offense, Crow-Armstrong has become the symbol of its evolution.

Just a year ago, there was a fairly simple formula for limiting his offensive impact: attack him with left-handed pitching. The young outfielder could do damage against right-handers, but his numbers against same-side pitching represented one of the biggest questions surrounding his long-term development.

Today, that weakness has virtually disappeared.

Pete Crow-Armstrong vs. left-handed pitching

Season	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2025	.188	.250	.376	59
2026	.275	.363	.425	128

The difference is enormous. Crow-Armstrong has gone from being vulnerable in those matchups to becoming a legitimate threat regardless of the arm slot standing on the mound. That transformation helps explain why he ranks second among position player in fWAR since May 1.

His elite defense and baserunning always gave him a high floor as a player. What has changed is that he now provides a much more complete offensive package, removing the biggest argument that once existed against his superstar ceiling.

Ian Happ Remains A Critical Piece of the Puzzle

While Busch and Crow-Armstrong have captured much of the attention, Happ continues to be a vital part of this story.

Since May 1, he owns a 143 wRC+, has hit seven home runs, and has accumulated 1.0 fWAR. Those numbers place him among the National League's most productive hitters during that stretch. What's particularly interesting is how he has built that production.

Although Happ has struggled against left-handed pitching, he has absolutely demolished right-handers. His 166 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is not only one of the best marks on the team but also one of the primary reasons Chicago's switch-hitters have produced at such a high level this season.

His performance also illustrates why the Cubs' offensive success cannot be explained solely through Busch's breakout or Crow-Armstrong's development. While Busch supplies impact production from the left side and PCA has evolved into a far more complete hitter, Happ continues to provide the steady offensive output that gives the lineup its depth.

The Alex Bregman Paradox

All of this brings us back to the original question.

When the Cubs acquired Bregman, it was reasonable to assume the offense would lean more heavily on its right-handed hitters. Instead, the season has unfolded in a completely different direction. Bregman has not been a problem, per se. He simply hasn't been the primary reason behind the offense's success.

Alex Bregman in 2026

Split	wRC+
vs. RHP	102
vs. LHP	94

Those are perfectly respectable numbers. The issue is that they are not the numbers defining the Cubs' offensive identity, nor are they worthy of the nine-figure deal he signed over the offseason.

While Bregman has provided stability, Busch has emerged as one of the league's most productive hitters, and Crow-Armstrong has erased the most significant weakness in his offensive profile. Alongside Happ, they have driven a lineup that has developed in a way few people projected during the offseason.

The Cubs believed Bregman's arrival would help compensate for Tucker's departure. What they discovered instead was that a significant portion of that production was already inside the organization. The result is an offense that, against all expectations, relies more heavily than ever on its left-handed and switch-hitting bats.

View full article

[Arlen]

Bregman outlay looks unnecessary. Not surprised.

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

2 hours ago, Arlen said:

Bregman outlay looks unnecessary. Not surprised.

That's a fair takeaway, honestly.

Part of what I found interesting while researching the piece is that the Cubs seem to be getting much of the production they expected to replace internally. Busch has continued his rise, Crow-Armstrong has made a huge offensive leap, and Happ remains a major contributor.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Bregman signing was a mistake, but it does raise a legitimate question: if the offense is still being driven primarily by those players, how much of the lineup's success is actually tied to Bregman's arrival?

Thanks for reading and sharing your perspective.