Sturm and Bang: Cubs Survive Wobbly Middle Innings to End Losing Streak in San Diego

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Frerker-Imagn Images

Pete Crow-Armstrong had, arguably, the two biggest at-bats of the night in the Cubs' 8-3 win over the Padres Tuesday. The impact of one was obvious: he slammed a three-run homer that broke open the game in the top of the seventh inning. The other was a subtler achievement, but a vital one in itself—for the team, in that moment; for Crow-Armstrong, individually; and for the team, again, because of just how important Crow-Armstrong is to them.

Let's start at the end, for once. In the seventh inning, the Cubs were clinging to a 4-3 lead. 'Clinging' is the cliche word for such a game state, but for the current Cubs, it's no exaggeration. A one-run lead, for this team at this time, is no lead at all—especially in San Diego, where the hosts have made a habit of revealing the Cubs' frailties each time they visit over the past few years. However, with runners on the corners and two outs, Craig Counsell pinch-hit Alex Bregman (who'd had the night off, to that point) and got the payoff he needed: an opposite-field single to double the team's cushion. That also gave Crow-Armstrong a chance to do bigger damage.

Wandy Peralta started Crow-Armstrong with a slider below the zone. Crow-Armstrong took it for ball one. That, alone, was noteworthy. Crow-Armstrong is, famously, the league's most swing-happy star, and sometimes its most swing-happy player of any quality. For his career, he's offered at the first pitch over half the time (51.6%); the league averages about 30%. This year, though—to his credit, though not (yet) to his consistent actual benefit—he's swinging a little bit less. On the first pitch, it's down to 48.6%. Overall, it's down from 60% to 58%, which doesn't sound like much. It's not much, in a vacuum. For Crow-Armstrong, though, maybe it could be enough. At any rate, he's making an adjustment, which is important and valuable. The strike zone is smaller. Most players are swinging less. Certainly, the guy who swings more than anyone should be following that particular trend. He is.

Anyway (and it might seem like this nullifies some of the above; I think it just reminds us to place it in context), Peralta came back with a changeup below the zone, and this time, Crow-Armstrong obliged him with a chase. That drew the count level at 1-1, and it gave Peralta and Padres catcher Luis Campusano the confidence to try the left-on-left changeup again. Big mistake. The pitch wasn't nearly as well-executed as its older sibling, and Crow-Armstrong punished it. Fool a hitter once, and you can reasonably hope to fool them again with the same trick, the data says. They don't tell you that if you throw a meatball the second time, the success rate of running it back goes through the floor, while the ball tends to go over the wall.

That home run was crucial for the Cubs. It took much of the pressure and worry out of the final nine outs of the game. Hoby Milner had come on in the bottom of the sixth (more on that later); he pitched a smooth seventh. Lefty Ryan Rolison closed out the Padres with two strong, scoreless innings. That's the formula for this team to win games right now: blow teams out, so whoever's available in relief that night can pitch with as little pressure as possible.

When Cade Horton was lost for the season to elbow surgery in early April, Cubs fans had little with which to console themselves. Horton was one of the joys of last season's run back to the playoffs, but his fragility was always at issue. The team handled him very carefully in the second half, but he still broke and missed the tail end of the regular season, plus the team's brief appearance in the playoffs. Injuries have never been far from the center of the discussion around Horton, and in the wake of this latest major one, his career prospects are somewhat muddied. It's bad, bad news.

One of the ways the team hoped to weather the loss of Horton, though, was the impending return of fellow two-time elbow surgery survivor Justin Steele. For a long period from mid-January through the time of Horton's injury, Steele appeared to be ahead of schedule and sailing toward a return to the rotation around Memorial Day. If he could be back around then, the team might just be able to swat away the injury bugs, despite all the bites they were inflicting. Several relievers hit the injured list throughout the first half of the month, making everything harder, but Steele's return would ease some of that trouble, too. Getting him back could push Colin Rea back into a relief role, lightening the burden on the rest of the pen.

On Tuesday, the Cubs announced that they've shut down Steele's throwing program, just when a rehab assignment should have been coming into view on the horizon. This isn't some galloping surprise; setbacks are normal for pitchers trying to return from a second elbow reconstruction. Then again, failing to return at all is also normal for pitchers in that situation. It's impossible to know, now, when the team might get Steele back, but it would be foolish to assume he'll pitch for the major-league team any time before the Fourth of July.

Meanwhile, the hits keep coming in the bullpen. The team was just beginning to feel they'd found something nice in homegrown lefty Riley Martin, when he had to return to Chicago in the early part of this road trip and was shelved by elbow inflammation. For a long while, this team will have to survive with a patchwork pen, because they won't be back to full strength for some time—if ever. Daniel Palencia's return is on the horizon, and Phil Maton is already back, but Hunter Harvey and Caleb Thielbar are not as close. Nor will it feel safe to say Palencia has dodged a bigger problem until he actually returns and strings together some healthy outings; lat injuries can be very tricky.

Thus, the team needs the likes of Corbin Martin (who earned a save Friday against the Dodgers) and Rolison (who got the win in that same game over the weekend and now has six scoreless innings across three appearances) to keep delivering solid outings. We talked about the good reasons for optimism about Martin when he signed a minor-league deal late in the offseason, and about how good Rolison looked early in spring training, but still, these are little-known journeymen. As Maton gets his legs back under him (literally) and Palencia once again shoulders the load (literally) in the ninth inning, the roles of these spare pieces will become less vital, but right now, this is how Counsell has to live. That makes every insurance run count double, for the foreseeable future.

It also made the sixth inning Tuesday night an exhilarating, painful sequence. The Cubs took the lead in the top half of the frame, 4-2 (more on that, again, later), and Edward Cabrera got the first two Padres batters of the bottom half with no trouble at all. It looked like Cabrera, who had only thrown 85 pitches and was past the dangerous top four in the San Diego lineup for the third time already, should be able to get them through the sixth, and maybe even start the seventh. Then, Ty France happened.

France is not a great overall hitter or a good defender anywhere but first base, but he's beloved by every team he joins. Part of that is his personality, which is jocular and energetic and good for the dugout vibes. Another part, though, is the fact that he's a great clutch hitter. With two outs, the Padres needed a baserunner and a tone change, and France delivered. On a 2-2 count, he fouled off a sinker that was running way in on him. France is an expert at getting hit by pitches, and he probably should have withheld his swing and let that pitch do so, but he'd already committed—and besides, the thing came in at 98 MPH. Cabrera had been trying to end the inning with an exclamation point. 

Feeling (perhaps rightly) that they now had France set up for a breaking ball away, Cabrera and Carson Kelly chose to go with the big righty's slider on the second 2-2 offering. That pitch takes on some extra importance for Cabrera this season, especially against righties; more on that another time. But he missed with this one, leaving it in the middle of the zone. France scalded a single to left field, extending the inning—and the frustration of that at-bat got into Cabrera's head.

He threw three straight non-competitive pitches to Gavin Sheets, the third of which hit him. He got Campusano into a 2-2 count, too, but left a changeup up and in. The Padres catcher expertly scooped a liner into left field to score France, and the inning had officially gotten away from the Cubs. It looked like the game would surely follow. Cabrera, furious with himself, went down the tunnel behind the dugout and slammed his glove after Counsel removed him from the game. Milner came on to clean up the mess, but the Cubs were into their bullpen before they'd wanted to be—and you can see, now, why that's going to be a bigger problem for this team than for most good ones, over the next few months.

Now, let's complete our journey backward in time, because I still have one more promise to fulfill. We said we would talk about two Crow-Armstrong at-bats, and all of the above informs the importance of this second (well, first, in that it came before the one we talked about first; third, in that it came after two other at-bats in the game; are you having fun with this game of non-sequential storytelling?) one. If the Cubs are going to win during this stretch in which their pitching is thin, they'll have to get more from Crow-Armstrong than they got from (give or take) the start of last August through the beginning of last week. Crow-Armstrong's offensive struggles got a lot of media attention early this year—probably too much, given that most of his value will always reside in his incredible defensive work, but you can understand why he came under some scrutiny. The Cubs, after all, bet $115 million on him this spring, and he had a long stretch there in which his OPS was well under .600. 

Although he's hit near the bottom of the order for some time now and isn't the linchpin of the offense, Crow-Armstrong has to give them some offensive value, too, because they're going to have to win some games 8-6, in addition to the ones they win 8-3. They need to score a lot, to make up for the fact that their injury-depleted staff will inevitably give up runs in bunches at times over the coming weeks and months. That means getting something substantial from every player who has a regular job—even their defensive ace.

Crow-Armstrong is actually trending the right way, and again, the concerns might have been exaggerated a bit, all along. He's digging himself out of an early hole a bit later than he did last year, but he did have to do it last year, too. He might not be a hitter who can find his swing and hit his stride on Opening Day; he might be one of those who warms with the weather.

At any rate, Crow-Armstrong is already coming out of his early funk, and mere competence from him will do. When he delivers in clutch moments, the team will win, because they're built to need just one or two such unexpected contributions to win on a given day. On Tuesday, the first such contribution he made came not with the decisive homer, but in setting up the scoreboard-flipping rally the inning before.

Kelly had led off the frame with a single, but Nicky Lopez (in for Dansby Swanson, who was removed with glute tightness) laid down a dreadful would-be sacrifice bunt, allowing the Padres to easily take down the lead runner, instead. That brought up Crow-Armstrong with a runner on first and one out. Padres starter Walker Buehler had abused him earlier in the game, working him into deep counts and then getting hopeless-looking chases with curveballs in the dirt for a pair of strikeouts. It looked like another bad night in the annals of Crow-Armstrong's spring, especially because he now had to face his kryptonite: any left-handed pitcher.

Reliever Kyle Hart might have thought his job would be easy. He might just have failed to execute. Whatever the case, though, he didn't get the same obliging chases from Crow-Armstrong. On five pitches, he got just one swing, on a sweeper. The other four missed the zone, and Crow-Armstrong took his hase.

That seems like a small moment, in which the pitcher did most of the work. In truth, though, there have been plenty of times over the last several months when pitchers' plans were clearly to keep throwing junk below the zone and let Crow-Armstrong get himself out. This time, he didn't do it, and that's becoming a bit of a pattern. He's walked and gotten a hit in three straight games, and four out of five on this tough West Coast swing. Since April 7, he's batting .257/.337/.392; that's all the Cubs really need from him.

His walk in the sixth forced the Padres to go to their third pitcher of the night, David Morgan. With two outs, Nico Hoerner laced a hustle double to right-center, scoring both Lopez and Crow-Armstrong to give the Cubs the lead, 4-2. It was a huge hit by Hoerner, who has been the team's offensive hero all year, but it was made possible by a good at-bat from Crow-Armstrong.

The Cubs are trying to prove they're robust enough to withstand all these pitching injuries. They've done so admirably so far. Tuesday night was a great win for them, not just because they needed to snap a sudden three-game losing skein, but because of the way they won. If this team is going to achieve its goals for the year, it needs Crow-Armstrong to string together good at-bats. Not all of them have to be as electrifying as the homer in the seventh, though. The quieter wins matter, too.

View full article

[Andre and Ryno]

Great article!