Ben Brown's Strong Appearance Tuesday Might Have Been Just the Beginning

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Last night, the Cubs lost 2-0. It was a bit of a frustrating game: he weather was frigid, the bats were as cold as the temperatures, and the team was seemingly just an inch or two short on a few spectacular defensive plays that could have kept the score knotted up. Despite all of that, there was one standout; Ben Brown. 

If we're just looking at the final stat line for Brown, it's pretty excellent. He went 3 1/3 innings, struck out five, walked one, and surrendered a solitary hit. On the surface, that's a good outing, but I think it hides a lot of the really good things that came out of it. In fact, what we may be seeing are the sprouts of a new, improved Ben Brown who could stick in the rotation.

One of the things the right-handed pitcher worked on in the spring was ensuring that his fastball sat in the upper third of the zone more frequently than in the past. Our very own @Matthew Trueblood explored Brown and this location earlier this offseason when looking at his spring training data, and last night seemed to be a continuation of that. Below is a map of all of Brown's offerings last night. The red dots indicate fastballs. The vast majority of these pitches are located in the upper third, which is exactly where you'd like to see them. Better yet, there's a distinct lack of uncompetitive pitches; command and control were on display for the fireballer Tuesday.

The result of getting his fastball in the upper third is that it creates space on the bottom half for his sinker (in on the hands of righties) and for his curveball to create chases and whiffs. The sinker is especially important, as it forces the hitter to cover the whole zone. Brown doesn't really want to throw fastballs in the lower half. With swing planes the way they are today and the movement he gets from his arm slot, those can be sent a long way. Nor does he want to throw low-and-in-curves. Without the sinker, the area we see filled above with the yellow/orange dots would be effectively empty, and it's an especially useful place to go against right-handed hitters.

We can see how all three pitches play off each other in a nice sequence against Jo Adell in the 8th inning. Adell has some swing-and-miss tendencies, but also some big power. His xSLG last year was in the 97th percentile. Even on cold nights, he's capable of muscling out a pitch. The more options you have, the less likely Adell is to find the bleachers and extend the two-run lead to something less surmountable. 

To start Adell off, Brown painted a sinker on the lower, inside corner for a strike. This is a great pitch to begin an at-bat. Either Adell swings at it, which almost assuredly results in a ground ball, or you get ahead 0-1—as Brown did, tilting the balance of the at-bat in the pitcher's favor. This is how Brown is filling up a new portion of the zone against those like-handed-hitters. 

Next, the hard-throwing-righty went with an uncompetitive changeup, and then fastball-fastball. Both of his heaters resulted in swings. The first earned a whiff (below), and the second was right at the very top of the zone. That caused Adell to have to cover the entirety of the plate: low and in, middle-high, and the very top of the zone. That first-pitch sinker wasn't in Brown's repertoire last year, meaning he'd either have been on his third fastball by the 1-2 foul, or maybe he'd have started Adell with a curveball that he doesn't really throw for strikes. Either way, the new pitch gave Brown options, and options are always good.

Now sitting in a very favorable count, Brown could finally throw the curve. Ideally, he'd have gotten him a little more on the outer portion of the lower half, but small quibbles aside, it was a good pitch. It was also the fourth type of pitch Brown had thrown in the sequence. It created a harder decision point for the hitter, and Brown got the pitch on the black. Adell grounded out harmlessly to Alex Bregman. That sinker adds just an extra point of reference for a hitter, and it's going to make Brown incredibly difficult to deal with against right-handed hitters. 

While these are all great offerings, what encouraged me most was a pitch that Brown threw in the next at-bat, this time by Angels left-handed-hitting outfielder Josh Lowe. So far in his young career, the Cubs' reliever has struggled against southpaws, surrendering a .342 wOBA (up from his .295 against RHH). It makes sense, too, because he doesn't have a pitch that's designed to attack lefties. His sinker can't be the solution here, either. Sinkers are much better against the same-handed hitter, and while he may show it every so often, it's not the pitch that's going to solve this problem. Within this at-bat, however, Brown flashed a pitch I want to see more of; a hard-thrown changeup that registered 90 mph on a very cold night.  

 

This wasn't a perfect pitch, mind you. It's certainly too high in the zone. Ideally, you'd like to see it thrown more like the one below, from Cade Horton. But it's a start. The velocity is reminiscent of Edward Cabrera's changeup, which sat well into the 90s on Monday night. As you can see, there's some solid arm-side movement on it; the pitch broke 13 inches to the right. What I liked the most about it is that he did have the confidence to throw it, and I want more of it. I want him to bury it more, sure, but I want to see him feel confident in that offering to throw it more than once or twice in a three-inning appearance. 

 

If Brown can bury that changeup a bit more, he's going to get weak ground balls against off-handed hitters, just like Cade Horton did with Daylen Lile above.

"Baseballs have a tendency not to fly over the fence when they hit the ground," a friend of mine said last night when discussing the game, and it's such a good and simple line that I have to steal it here. Couple a changeup that Brown can more consistently get to the outside corner against hitters like Lowe with the new sinker to a righty like Adell? You're cooking with gas, now. 

Strangely enough, the pitcher I envision the best version of Brown to be is probably very similar to the best version of José Soriano, the pitcher the Cubs had the pleasure to face last night. Soriano mixes his high-octane fastballs with a knuckle-curve (that he throws 85 mph+) and a splitter he uses to keep lefties at bay. Soriano used his splitter nine times against off-handed hitters last night, and ideally, Brown could use his changeup in a similar manner. 

Even as-is, the guy we saw take the mound last night is a weapon. Don't let me sound like I'm trying to diminish what he accomplished. The new sinker is helping against hitters like Adell, and will make Brown better than when we last saw him in 2025. Instead, what I see is the path forward. If he doesn't ever find the changeup, Brown is a good pitcher, but there's the potential for a very good pitcher if he can just find that pitch a little. And I can't help but dream on it. 

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What did you make of Ben Brown's appearance last night? Did anything stand out to you? Let us know in the comments below!

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