Chicago Cubs 2026 Position Analysis: First Base

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs officially have one of the better first basemen in baseball, the first time they can say that since the departure of Anthony Rizzo back in 2021. Things seemed bleak at first base for some time; we saw Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom for too long. Past-their-prime veterans Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini were supposed to be the bridge to slugging prospect Matt Mervis, but he is long gone as well.

Most were a bit stumped prior to the 2024 season when the Cubs traded teenage pitching prospect Jackson Ferris and top outfield prospect Zyhir Hope for an aging prospect without a clear defensive position. Then, when they almost immediately announced he would be transitioning to first, it made their outlook even more confusing. Michael Busch was regarded as one of best hitters of the 2019 draft when the Dodgers selected him out of UNC with the 31st overall pick. He made his debut in 2023 and hit .167 in 81 plate appearances while playing a subpar second and third base. Going into 2024, the Dodgers had Busch, Kike Hernandez, Miguel Vargas, Chris Taylor, Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas competing for work in the infield behind Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. Although Busch was expendable at that point, he was still the 51st ranked prospect in baseball, and would become the Cubs’ number four organizational prospect behind Cade Horton, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Owen Caissie. 

Fast-forward two seasons and now Busch is picking up down-ballot MVP votes and leading the Cubs in home runs. First starting off as a platoon player, Busch began starting everyday early in 2025 and is one of the set-it-and-forget-it players in the lineup.

Chicago Cubs First Basemen At A Glance

Starter: Michael Busch

Backup: Tyler Austin (On IL), Jonathon Long

Depth: Moises Ballesteros, Owen Miller (minors), Christian Bethancourt (minors)

Prospects: B.J. Murray

The Good:

Well, Michael Busch is pretty darn good. The 28-year-old lefty broke out massively in 2025, slashing .261/.343/.523 with 34 home runs, 90 RBIs, and serving as the leadoff hitter for the Cubs’ first postseason run since 2020. You’d have to go back all the way to 2019 when Kyle Schwarber hit 38 homers to find a higher total than Busch’s. His 4.6 WAR was tied for third on the team, trailing only Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner. As for first basemen league-wide, he was tied with Bryce Harper and only trailed Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Pete Alonso. 

Under the hood, the statcast numbers show a player who is blossoming into one of the top offensive forces in the game. His average exit velocity of 92.2 was tied for 18th in baseball, his barrel percentage of 17.1 was 11th, and he finished 10th in xwOBA at .378. In a game where luck is certainly a factor, Busch is showing consistent, quality contact that cannot be considered a fluke. In fact, Busch’s wOBA of .369 shows he was a little unlucky last season. Defensively, Busch posted a .996 fielding percentage and 2 DRS that placed top six amongst MLB first basemen. He is not going to win four gold gloves like Rizzo, but he will make the routine plays while bailing out a few bad throws from the Cubs' excellent infield.

For 2026, Busch is an integral part of a lineup that is half proven veterans and young studs who need to establish themselves as bona fide contributors. He is the team’s most important left-handed bat who will be relied upon to play 150+ games again (he played in 155 last season). 

The Bad:

Did you notice how the entire previous section only mentioned Michael Busch? That is because he is the the majority of what is good about the Cubs’ first base situation. Across the infield, Matt Shaw is lined up to backup at any of the three other spots, with top prospect Pedro Ramirez looking close to MLB ready. In the outfield, Kevin Alcantara is deserving of an extended look, if one of the starters goes down. But first base? It really seems like Busch or bust, since offseason signee Tyler Austin will be missing the first month or more of the season. 

Even if Austin was healthy to start the year, he's still a 34-year-old with 0.9 career WAR, who hasn’t played in the majors since 2019. He’s had a cumulative .945 OPS in the NPB over the last six seasons, but banking on any sort of production in his return stateside is wishful thinking. After Austin, the cupboard runs bare very quickly.

Craig Counsell’s old friend Owen Miller is down in the minors and has first base experience. He went 8-30 this spring and brings an extra element of speed to the table. One-game wonder Christian Bethancourt is back with the organization and has enough experience at the cold corner to be considered another unexciting option. Moises Ballesteros played four innings of first base last season, but is currently penciled in as the starting DH.

From a fan’s perspective, the most exciting option if Busch were to miss time would be prospect Jonathan Long. The Long Beach State alum is coming off an excellent AAA season where he hit .305 with an .883 OPS and 20 homers, but needs to hit the ball in the air more to reach his power potential. Long sits outside of the top 100 MLB prospects and has a long-term outlook of being a potential role player, rather than a difference maker in the middle of the lineup. The point here is that Busch needs to stay healthy or else there becomes a massive hole in the lineup.

The Bottom Line:

There are depth questions here after Busch, but the Cubs have an ascending star at first base. Even if his home run total isn’t as high as last season, the Cubs are counting on their leadoff hitter to propel them back to the postseason. In terms of his contract, he is still pre-arbitration and has four years of team control remaining. There are few other first basemen in baseball producing like Busch and not taking up a huge portion of their team’s payroll. He won’t be this cheap forever, so fans need to enjoy this while it lasts. First base is a position of strength for the Cubs again.

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