Chicago Cubs 2026 Position Analysis: Shortstop

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs came into this offseason with questions. They'll enter the next one with different questions. None of those, however, surround the shortstop position. For the last three years, and at least for this next one, the position belongs to Dansby Swanson. 

Swanson had an interesting season. We'll talk about the enigmatic nature of his offense throughout his career, but the stat sheet looks fantastic in certain areas—and less great in others. He slashed just .244/.300/.417, with a 26.0% strikeout rate that was his highest since 2022 and a walk rate that declined for a third consecutive season (7.3%). He did hit 24 home runs and steal 20 bases, while showcasing some impressive power metrics. But when all was said and done, his wRC+ checked in as essentially average: 99, where 100 is exactly average and higher is better.

Lucky for him, his status as the team's starting shortstop isn't in any kind of question. Nico Hoerner resumes duties as the backup, while Matt Shaw could fill in in a pinch. It's a position of certainty and of depth, but that doesn't mean it's an ideal one for the Cubs ahead of the new season.

SHORTSTOPS AT A GLANCE
Starter: Dansby Swanson
Backup: Nico Hoerner
Depth & Prospects: Matt Shaw, Scott Kingery, Ben Cowles, Jefferson Rojas
fWAR Ranking Last Year: 15th (3.3)
fWAR Projection This Year: 13th (3.9)

THE GOOD
Swanson had his best power season since he signed with the Cubs, by a pretty wide margin. That's not completely reflected in his ISO, as a .173 mark in 2025 just barely edges the .172 figure he posted in 2023, and 24 home runs is not that much more than 22 home runs. Under the hood, though, better things were happening.

Each of Swanson's barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity were his highest in a Cub uniform. These are objectively good things, despite what the rest of the stat sheet might say. He was in heavily on the fastballs that are a prerequisite for his success (more on that later), with his pitch selection helping to drive regular contributions in the power game. He also produced the results he did in a year when the ball was a bit less lively than it's been at any time in the last decade. The drag coefficient on the ball was higher than at any point since the very earliest days of the Statcast Era. In this chart, the higher a daily datum is, the less well the ball carried that day, on average.

Swanson also continued to be an above-average defender. The numbers were tamped a bit by some early struggles, but Outs Above Average still liked him for 4 OAA.

The good is furthered by the fact that the team has a built-in backup to Swanson in the form of Nico Hoerner. Flipped over to the keystone upon Swanson's arrival, Hoerner is more than capable of providing stability at the position in the event of an injury or some extra rest, while Matt Shaw would then slide into Hoerner's vacated spot at second in either instance. There's a bit of unconventional depth here, but it all speaks to the idea that this is one of the more stable positions on the roster.

THE BAD
Swanson is an immensely difficult player to figure out. At the same time, he's also a very easy player to figure out. Let me explain. 

The best years of Dansby Swanson's career have come when he's hunting fastballs. In 2021, he was a 99 wRC+ player, but had a .201 ISO. It was the only time in his career his isolated power number eclipsed that .200 mark. In 2022, he went for a wRC+ of 117 while still maintaining much of that power; his ISO was .170 and he hit 25 home runs. He followed that with a 105 wRC+ campaign and a .172 ISO in his first year with the Cubs. Those seasons saw his three highest rates of swinging at fastballs (prior to 2025). The 2022 season is particularly notable, as he swung at fastballs more than any other pitch type (53.6%). He'd never done that over a full season—until 2025. 

Swanson swung at 55.6% of fastballs in 2025. He maintained a hard-hit rate of 56.1%, found the barrel 13.8% of the time, and carried a .483 slugging percentage against heaters. The issue with that, dear reader, lies here: 

Swanson became so obsessed with swinging at them that he lost his grip on the zone. There was a threshold somewhere, and Swanson crossed it with his aggression against that specific pitch type. The outcomes were positive when he made contact inside the zone, but swinging at the heater outside the zone (and missing more often when he did so) cut into the benefits of that adjustment quite a bit.

Additionally, Swanson continued a trend that began when he arrived in Chicago. At 17.3%, his opposite-field percentage was the lowest of his career. In fact, each of his three seasons have seen a noticeable drop in how frequently he makes contact to the opposite field. That element has its own nuance within his mechanics, but speaks to another factor pinning down some of the production from Swanson, beyond the approach. 

The good news is that Swanson still found ways to produce. The better news is that he's worked with Dustin Kelly on some changes this offseason. Those details are somewhat vague, but could indicate some refinement to blend the uptick in power with a more robust ability to reach base in 2026. 

THE BOTTOM LINE
This position is Swanson's to lose in the short and medium term. Hoerner could leave as a free agent next winter. Neither of Scott Kingery or Ben Cowles are going to push for playing time. Jefferson Rojas is still a ways away. Swanson could move to second as soon as next year, but for now, he's the shortstop. It's just a matter of which iteration we see. 

Is Swanson going to refine the approach in a way that allows him to maintain power but work counts more effectively in his favor? How much can going the other way with authority again augment his production, and can he accomplish that? Is the defensive decline actually the result of a poor start, or should we start to worry about aging at a premium position? These are all questions in need of answers in the new season, but Swanson will have plenty of runway to do just that.

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[Arlen]

Chuck Norris has gone to Heaven, so... Matt Shaw for all eight positions! And pitcher!  Back him up with Marco Rubio.