Cubs Expectation Setting: What Can Fans (Reasonably) Expect From Nico Hoerner In 2026?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The 2025 iteration of second baseman Nico Hoerner was unlike anything the Chicago Cubs had seen before. 

Sure, he'd hit more than .297 in a season. He'd also reached base at a clip better than the .345 mark he posted. He's also stolen more bases in a season than the 29 bags he swiped, and he's hit for better power than indicated by a .097 isolated power number. Yet in terms of his total value, both his wRC+ (109) and his fWAR (4.8) were above any figure he'd posted in the three previous seasons of full-time action. 

Much of the value on the Wins Above Replacement side of things lies in Hoerner's glove. His 15 Outs Above Average sat 12th among qualifying players regardless of position, ninth among infielders, and at the top of the list of players who log regular time at the keystone. While much of his value may be wrapped up in that facet of his game, it shouldn't lead to an understatement of the value in his bat. 

Hoerner's 2025 season was his best in the contact game. His 48.5 percent swing rate was his highest since 2022, as was a 31.9 percent chase rate. But the aggression didn't tamp his ability to make contact. He made contact at an 89.8 percent clip, continuing a four-year progression of improvement there and sitting fourth on the leaderboard among qualifiers. His whiff rate was just 4.9 percent, both a career best and a number which landed in the 99th percentile of hitters. Of course, very little of that was hard contact. 

In terms of quality of contact, Hoerner's barrel rate was just 2.3 percent. His hard-hit rate was 30.3. Those two percentages landed in the sixth and eighth percentile, respectively. When one considers high swing rates alongside hard contact rates that feature a dearth of quality contact, you start to imagine a player akin to Luis Arráez, whose value has been questioned in recent years as a contact-exclusive bat. Hoerner, though, has a bit more to his offensive profile than that. 

The version of Nico Hoerner that we saw in the second half of 2025 was a bit different than the one in the first. His hard hit rate was at 32.1 percent in July and progressively increased over the final three months of the year. His ISO graduated from .094 to .100 between the two halves of the year while his line drive rate jumped seven percent. He also swung at an ascending rate of fastballs over that span, which is encouraging given most players' penchant for generating more line drives and some extra power against that pitch type.

Earlier this offseason, we also looked at where in the zone Hoerner needed to focus in matters of the zone. He's able to derive more power on the inner portion of the plate. Between the adjustments that led to a slight uptick in impact and the knowledge that there is an area of the plate where Hoerner's able to tap into a bit more, there's reason to think he could return to even the modest levels of power output we saw from him back in 2022 and 2023. 

But is that what fans should be expecting if we're to quantify Hoerner's 2026 as a "good" season? 

Realistically, the expectation should be for Hoerner to repeat much of what he did in 2025. The contact and the strikeout avoidance while providing quality baserunning and elite defense is a dynamic player entrenched in this lineup, even sans power. And it's not as if he was running into some luck in maintaining solid rates in the box score alongside a contact-focused profile; his .313 BABIP was barely a notch above a .307 mark for his career. Given that we saw the power flash at all in the second half, however, leaves an expectation for a bit more of it in the season ahead. 

That, dear reader, should be where the expectations rest. Nico Hoerner is not Luis Arráez. Not only does he sport a more impressive profile on the bases and in the field, he can occasionally tap into some legitimate impact. A repeat of 2025 with an ISO that creeps back to multiple points above .100 would represent a blend of each of his career trends to date and the final frontier of his development. 

The most impressive thing is that none of that feels unrealistic.

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