So Far, No Hitter Has Benefited More from ABS Than Michael Busch

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

Michael Busch has only challenged two calls this spring under the new ABS system, but he's won both times. Just as importantly, he's mounted them, even though (based on the array of pitches he's seen and taken) Statcast's model for predicting how many challenges each hitter would utilize only expects him to have challenged 0.8 pitches—and to have won 0.5 of those 0.8. Meanwhile, only one challenge has been issued against him, and it was lost. 

Obviously, the data set is far to small to say for certain that Busch has a skill when it comes to challenging. Besides, the magnitude of added value we're talking about here is quite small. Busch flipped called strikes on an 0-1 and a 1-1 pitch to balls, and saw one 2-1 pitch stay a ball despite a challenge. The total number of added calls in his favor, relative to the model's expectation, is 3.5, which isn't a big deal, unless the calls in question are hugely high-leverage. There's a bit of bonus value in taking away one of the other team's challenges by getting them to challenge in error, but that, too, is a small thing. So, why is this worth discussing?

Firstly, it seems virtually certain that someone will benefit significantly from the ABS system this year, both at a team level and at an individual one. Last season, Triple-A players successfully overturned 4,628 calls, which is a lot of accumulated impact, even if it came in tiny increments. The value of those changes will accrue unevenly, based on good plate discipline for batters, good command by pitchers, and (yes, still) good framing by catchers, plus great gameplanning and strategic communication by teams and their coaches.

Secondly, though, there's some reason to believe that Busch will be uniquely good at utilizing this system. First, he's 5-foot-11, which appears to be an advantage in a world with an ABS system. Pitchers will go through an adjustment period to recalibrate the top of the zone, but it's lower under ABS than it often was before that system went into effect, and for shorter hitters, that will include an especially apparent shift. Furthermore, though, Busch has a particular combination of stance and movement in the batter's box that could make the system very valuable to him. 

Though it's subtle, Busch hits from a moderate crouch. (See the first image above, on the left.) That won't determine where his strike zone stops and starts, as it would have in the past—ABS sets an identical zone based on height for each batter. It does, however, set the pitcher's sights a bit, and it's still likely to influence the umpire somewhat. 

Once Busch gets moving, an even more pronounced effect happens. Though he's not a huge leg-kick guy and starts with his feet only moderately far apart, he takes a longish stride. By his contact point (see the middle image), the center of his front foot is over 3 1/2 feet in front of the center of his back foot. 

Combine the crouch and the length of his stride, and Busch gets very deep into his legs. Again, refer to that center image, and note how low his left shin gets to the ground. That's part of his natural stroke, but it sets a low bottom rail for his zone, visually. Though his knees are bound to be lower than those of the towering Oneil Cruz, when you compare a composite animation of those two players' swings, you can immediately see that more than height separates them.

The umpire isn't consciously looking at the way Busch's body moves into his hitting position when they decide whether the pitch is at the knees or below them, but there's a sense impression happening even in that instant of ball reaching mitt and a call needing to be made. This hasn't been a huge problem for Busch, but because he also dips that back leg and sinks into his hitting position even on takes (see the image on the right, above), he sometimes gets balls called strikes just below the zone.

This year, Busch will get a chance to challenge those. On the rare occasions when an umpire is fooled, the sharp-eyed Busch can rectify the problem, knowing his own zone and what distortion might have led to a bad call. On the other hand, the catcher is in position to get fooled more than the umpire—which could be great for the Cubs. It's not a natural thing to think of much in terms of the ramifications of implementing this system, but Busch took 109 pitches for balls along the bottom edges of the zone last year that were actually balls, but not by much. He has a patient approach and a good feel for that part of the zone. He could frustrate opposing pitchers and catchers, though, because they often thought they deserved a strike, even when they didn't.

Some of that is just Busch's great approach, but another piece is the way he stands in the box and moves toward the ball, even on non-swings. He's going to draw a higher-than-average number of mistaken challenges this year, and each lost challenge by an opponent has big value for the team. Even one such loss forces the other side to get more conservative in their challenges, and a second one robs them of the right to challenge at all the rest of the way.

We've only really talked about the bottom of the zone, because the effects at the top of the zone seem fairly straightforward. There, too, though, Busch will get the benefit of some calls, because he strides so low that even more pitches look high than actually are. He might draw some bad challenges that way, too, since (again) the top of the ABS zone is a ball's width or so lower than most players are used to.

The Cubs have to be good at the little things this year. Winning more challenges and/or inducing bad challenges by opponents will be one way to carve out the advantages they need. Busch looks like one of the players best positioned to do just that.

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