Pump the Brakes: Edward Cabrera Trade Comes With Massive Risks for Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © John Jones-Imagn Images

Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs might've taken a long time to get it done — with rumors that go back to the 2025 trade deadline depending on who you ask — but they were, finally, able to acquire a cost-controlled starting pitcher with top-of-the-rotation upside in Miami's Edward Cabrera. He and his changeup/curveball-driven arsenal will slot in near the top of the team's rotation alongside the likes of Cade Horton and, eventually, Justin Steele. 

What Cabrera brings to the Cubs has been well-documented here by each of Matt Trueblood & Jason Ross. He's a still-evolving pitcher who broke out in 2025 and adds the type of swing-and-miss that the Cubs were lacking in their starting five outside of Horton. It's obviously a worthwhile deal for the Cubs given their need for such a presence in the starting mix, and it represents a long-awaited impact move for the franchise this winter. 

That doesn't mean it's without risk, however. 

Whenever a trade of above-average magnitude is made, one automatically shifts focus to the players that were given up in the deal. It was an immediate realization upon the departures of Hayden Wesneski, Cam Smith, and Isaac Paredes in last offseason's deal to bring Kyle Tucker to Chicago. Of course, the context here differs dramatically both in terms of positional value, team control, and the immediate impact from an organizational standpoint. 

Unlike the trio sent to Houston in December 2024, Owen Caissie was the only one of the three players sent to Miami sent to contribute this year. Caissie's departure leaves the Cubs with even less power than they had in the mix following Tucker's own goodbye in free agency. But it also clears up what was sort of a murky picture between right field and designated hitter, with space now free for Seiya Suzuki and Moisés Ballesteros to operate in those two positions, respectively, and room for Kevin Alcántara to supplement them either way. The power component, though, is where the risk starts to manifest. 

The team lost Tucker's .218 first half ISO from 2025; now, they've let Caissie's .265 figure from Iowa head down to sunny Florida. Those are two very abstract concepts in one sentence. Tucker struggled down the stretch (primarily due to health), and we don't know for sure how Caissie's power would've translated to full-time big-league work. This is also a team that saw a more than 20-point drop on the ISO side in the second half of the season. Between the second departure of what could have been a reliable power bat and the trends with which we left 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of power-related impact in the team's lineup. Caissie's involvement in the trade only enhances it.

There's always the possibility that one or both of Cristian Hernández or Edgardo De Leon turn into legitimate players at the major-league level, too. Those timelines, however, are much further down the road due to the fact that the former's bat still has a ways to go and the latter is only 18 years old. If the Cubs regret moving either player, we probably won't know for a handful of seasons. So, in terms of the risk on the Cubs' end, as far as outgoing players, it's all about the power potential they lost in Caissie and may or may not replace this winter.

The much larger risk component here lies within the player they acquired himself. The knock against Edward Cabrera is that he's coming off one year of established success largely due to his inability to stay on the mound. Cabrera has been on the injured list eight times(!) since 2022, primarily due to elbow and shoulder issues. In 2025, he started the year late due to a blister, left a start in July after experiencing elbow discomfort, and landed on the IL to start September following a right elbow sprain. His 137 2/3 innings covered last season were the most in his career by a wide margin. Can the Cubs reasonably expect him to throw much more than that considering the history?

There's a performance factor here, too. As good as Cabrera's stuff can be, there's also a quality-of-contact issue. He sat in the 45th percentile in barrel rate (8.8 percent) and the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate against (46.4 percent). His walk rate was only in the 43rd percentile (8.3 percent). So, while he may generate plenty on the whiff and strikeout side of things, performance concerns still abound given some of the outcomes we saw in his breakout year. 

It may be somewhat paradoxical to clamor for Jed Hoyer and the team's front office to make a substantial move and then voice concerns when it finally happens. That isn't what's happening here, however. These are, objectively, concerning things. A high-velocity pitcher — even utilizing it less than he once did — with a history of shoulder and elbow trouble is a worrisome addition. On the other side, one hopes the team's pitching infrastructure can, at least, help him to get some of the contact issues in order. 

Perhaps the most important thing to note is that while this move is an actual risk, it's a worthwhile one for the Cubs. Yes, they dealt their No. 1 prospect and some additional upside to get him. But he's also an arm that presents as much upside in his own right as anyone on this staff not named Cade Horton. To say nothing of the three years the team will get to have him inside the organization, at minimum.

It's a whole lot of abstract things to tangle with, both in terms of prospects and the health of the player they acquired. At the end of the day, though, we're really not looking at a situation that would be all that different had they taken the same path to acquire the McKenzie Gore's or Kris Bubic's of the baseball world.

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[Clark_Addison]

Shorter version - Pitchers arms can break (See Justin Steele) and prospects traded can end up good

Pitchers arms can win playoff games and prospects fail more often they they become All Stars 

[DK1230]

Between the strikeout profile of Owen Caissie, very likely to be made more glaring by MLB pitching and his often clumsy, and likely to get worse, defense in the OF.....this is a trade you make 150 times out of 100.  Whatever risk is associated with Edward Cabrera, this is a baseball trade through and through and there is no argument that Chicago didn't get the better of it as we stand in January, 2026.  Time will tell the rest.

Edited January 12 by DK1230