What the Cubs Are Getting in Edward Cabrera

On Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs finally addressed their starting rotation, completing a trade with the Maimi Marlins for right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera. The Marlins and the Cubs have long been apparent bedfellows, with Chicago almost dealing for Jesús Luzardo last year and Cabrera last summer, and they finally consummated a deal. There will be plenty of discourse on the price, and losing Owen Caissie could come back and hurt the Cubs at some point, but what the Cubs are actually getting in Cabrera is just as important. 

Cabrera, 27, is a 6-foot-5 right-handed pitcher who signed with the Marlins as an international free agent way in 2015. He gained significant prospect hype, making the Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline Top 100 lists for three straight seasons from 2020-22. However, it took a while for him to stick in the Marlins rotation, due to a combination of control issues and injuries. That changed in 2025, when Cabrera and Marlins pitching coach Daniel Moskos (hired away from the Cubs in Nov. 2024) made a significant change in arm slot, which seemingly unlocked Cabrera's potential. 

By shifting his arm slot lower, Cabrera created a significant change in his movement profile, giving him significantly more horizontal movement than he had before—and tons of vertical movement on his curveball.. 

Here's Cabrera's new-look curveball in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers in July. On a 2-2 count, and after a (barely) too-low changeup, Cabrera used his hammer to get the punchout. The added depth and how the pitch plays off his changeup earned a chase on this pitch. FanGraphs's Stuff+ agrees the pitch has gotten better, shape-wise. While it was always strong, sitting at a career 109 on their scale, it jumped to a 119 last year. 

While Cabrera's best pitch now is his curveball, his arm slot change also improved his changeup, taking the shape of that pitch from below-average to plus. Changeups are great for right-handed-pitchers to attack left-handed hitters, and it's always been a staple for him. Here, Cabrera used his changeup with strong arm-side run to strikeout the dangerous Lamonte Wade Jr. 

The Marlins and Cabrera were effectively able to change his pitch mix last season to utilize his arm slot optimally, moving away from his 98-mph fastball and highlighting a sinker-slider combination that would better attack righties. The fireballer can now more effectively attack both sides of the plate, which sows doubt and creates deception. 

None of this matters if there isn't proof of real applicability attached to those adjustments, but there was plenty of that in 2025. Cabrera posted his best ERA (3.53), FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62). One thing that could be easy to miss: none of this resulted in a lower strikeout rate. While his per-inning strikeout rate decreased slightly, because his walk rate was so much lower (13.3% career prior, 8.3% last year), he faced fewer hitters per inning and his per-batter faced rate stayed pretty much the same. It was easily his best season. 

There are still places to improve. The batted-ball data against Cabrera isn't great. He gives up a lot of hard hit balls and isn't great at limiting barrels. With his stuff, one might hope for better chase rates on pitches outside the zone. The Cubs are a team who love cutting action on fastballs, and adding a cutter to Cabrera's arsenal might also continue to help against lefty batters, while allowing him to use his sinker (which he likely throws a little too often to lefties) less often against them. Cabrera is making progress, but is not a finished project.

Beyond some cleanup work, there's another red flag in Cabrera's game: injuries. Cabrera has had a fairly lengthy injury record, and last year was no different, as he missed time twice with elbow-related issues. It's tempting to worry that he's on the verge of needing Tommy John surgery, but while any pitcher is seemingly one throw away from exploding, the risk might not be as severe as it seems. Remember, Cabrera significantly dropped his arm slot last year. Typically, that will result in more stress in the elbow versus the shoulder. We shouldn't ignore these, but it could also be that a new motion created some added soreness as the pitcher got used to the changes. Hopefully for his (and the Cubs') sake, this is a transition to a new mechanical signature, rather than something more serious. The Cubs reviewed his medicals before approving this trade, and they appear to believe he's healthier than Luzardo was a year ago.

Moving forward, it's fair to be cautiously optimistic about what the Cubs have acquired. The team has clearly prioritized pitchers with lower arm slots, such as Phil Maton, Hoby Milner and Colin Snider this offseason, and Cabrera will fit that mold. He's young and has plenty of upside. There is clear risk here, because he's never fully established himself as a No. 2 in the rotation, but he has the hallmarks of someone capable of breaking out. He also adds much-needed swing-and-miss stuff, and could form a very fun 1-2 punch with Cade Horton atop the Cubs' rotation for the next three years. 

What do you think of the Edward Cabrera trade? Are you excited? Do you foresee him establishing himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm in Chicago? Sound off in the comments below!