Javier Assad Is Too Good To Fill the Role the Cubs Need

[Brandon Glick]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Shota Imanaga's return to the Chicago Cubs' rotation — after a bizarre double-opt-out that required the qualifying offer to mend — should be a boon at large for the team in 2026, even if his home run problems render him less effective than the pitcher he was in 2024 and the first half of 2025. However, his presence (and the looming return of Justin Steele from elbow surgery) puts the Cubs in a weird spot when it comes to one of their best depth arms.

Javier Assad took 29 starts for the North Siders in 2024, and he entered camp with an eye on yet another job at the back of Craig Counsell's rotation. Unfortunately, an oblique strain had other ideas, holding him out until August 12. That long layoff limited him to just seven starts (plus one bullpen appearance) and 37.0 innings, but he was more or less the pitcher fans have come to expect when stepped back onto the mound — he recorded a 3.65 ERA, 47.4% ground-ball rate, while pitching to about 1.0 fWAR per 100 frames. His strikeouts were down, but so too were the amount of walks and home runs he surrendered. He pitched to contact effectively, letting the Cubs' superlative defense take care of the many balls in play. In other words, he was Javier Assad.

Long one of baseball's best FIP-beaters (a topic our @Jason Ross explored in depth here), the 28-year-old's expected stats continued to betray his actual production. His 4.24 FIP this past season was more than a half-run higher than his ERA; his expected ERA (xERA) was 4.79, clear of his actual mark by more than a full digit. It's no secret why a contact-manager like Assad continues to outperform his FIP; the stat hones in on the outcomes a pitcher controls (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs). It may be a better indicator of a pitcher's potential to dominate, but it hardly accounts for a pitcher who knows how to pitch to his defense's strengths as well as Assad does.

A lot of what drives his success is a seven-pitch mix that includes three fastballs (a four-seamer, a cutter, and a sinker), two distinct slider shapes (a traditional slider and a sweeper), and a curveball and a changeup. None of these pitches are actually incredible, mind you — in a small sample, his sweeper and four-seamer were the only offerings to generate an xwOBA below .300 this year. He gets by on a quantity-over-quality approach, which works when you're able to differentiate movement profiles as much as Assad does.

*Chart courtesy of Baseball Savant

Again, that sheer diversity doesn't lead to dazzling results. His strikeout rate has never been above 21% in a single season, and he routinely ranks toward the bottom of the league in inducing whiffs and chases. Were it not for a proven ability to miss barrels and generate ground balls, Assad probably wouldn't even be in the league. And yet, he has proven, time and time again, to have that ability, expected stats be damned.

Putting him in a Keegan Thompson-esque, multi-inning-fireman role is simply not the right play here. Assad is a starter, plain and simple. Thanks to that seven-pitch arsenal, he tends to get better as he gets deeper into games. He's also significantly better with runners on base, which would sound like a load of small-sample nonsense if he hadn't repeated the same feat four years running.

So, what's the plan here? He isn't taking a spot from Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton, or Imanaga in the rotation, and Steele would have the inside track on the fifth job if and when he's healthy. Plus, Colin Rea is still a factor after his strong effort in 2025, and Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown are still clogging up space on the 40-man roster. Would the Cubs really stash Assad in Triple-A (he has two option years remaining) until a need arises? Will they try to treat him like a true swingman, á la the way the Cincinnati Reds have used Nick Martinez the past few years?

It's something of a good problem to have since Assad has proven so effective in his opportunities, despite what the expected metrics suggest. He's not so good that he'll cause internal strife by ringing up 15 Triple-A hitters a night, but it's also a waste of his talents to have him soak up mop-up duty on either side of a blowout.

What the Cubs need is an Alec Mills or Keegan Thompson. What they have is Javier Assad. If they can find the balancing act between those two distinct archetypes, perhaps a brighter future lies ahead for both team and player.

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[Bertz]

I'm not especially high on Assad.  The FIP beater stuff doesn't have a lot of the associated contact management numbers you typically look for to assure yourself it's real.  We're well past small sample size but I still don't trust it, and based on their leaving him off the playoff roster entirely clearly the team doesn't either.

I will say Assad did pitch well in a less ambiguous way in '23.  He was more of an actual swingman and also had more velo (~93 as a starter and approaching 95 in short relief).  I don't know what it takes to get that velo back, was his issue this year simply the oblique killed his conditioning?  But if he gets back to that higher velocity I'd be more comfortable handing him the ball in a game of consequence.

Ultimately I think his fate is tied to Brown and Wicks.  They each have minor league options so you dont *have* to do anything, but broadly my thought is with the three of them it's a choice of "bullpen one, trade one, stash the other at Iowa."  Setting aside what they'd each return in trade IMO the clear preference is Brown in the pen, Wicks at Iowa, Assad traded.

And a trade should actually bring back something nice?  The market for back of the rotation SPs is popping off.  Adrian Houser just got $11M (!?!).  Assad, especially with his minor league options, should have some actual honest to god value.

[cubfansince77]

Do NOT trade him...he's a vital BOR guy. Especially once injuries hit, which they always will

Edited December 21, 2025 by cubfansince77

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Javier Assad is Too Good, words never spoken in any context until now.