Chicago Cubs Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Javier Assad

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Melissa Tamez-Imagn Images

SP, Javier Assad
Age on Opening Day: 28
2023 Salary: League Minimum 
2024 Salary: League Minimum 
2025 Salary: League Minimum 
2026 Salary Projection: $1,900,000

Background: 
Javier Assad was signed out of Mexico as an international free agent back in 2015. Not considered one of the premier players in his class, Assad has worked hard on himself and his craft to become an MLB player and has carved out a role as a swingman with the Chicago Cubs over the last few years. His best numbers seem to come when deployed as a member of the rotation, and over his last 291 innings he has compiled a 3.47 ERA and has been worth 2.3 fWAR. 

2025 Season: 
Javier Assad missed most of the 2025 season with the dreaded oblique strain. The right-hander suffered the injury before Opening Day and then suffered a setback during his rehab time in Iowa. It looked like he may not make it back all season at one point, but he was able to get healthy and help the Cubs down the stretch, with a 3.65 ERA over seven starts. 

That ERA, however, may have masked some of his results. Assad's strikeout rate has never been his strong suit, hovering around the 20% mark over his career, but in 2025, his K% dropped to 15%. This can also been seen in the disparity between his ERA and his xFIP, as despite the sparkling run prevention, his xFIP did sit at 4.69.

Cubs' Depth at SP:

• MLB: Shota Imanaga (pending contract decisions), Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea (pending contract decisions), Justin Steele (pending arbitration) 
• On the 40-man: Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks
• Triple-A Depth: Jaxon Wiggins, Brandon Birdsell, Will Sanders, Conor Noland

Summary: 
Javier Assad isn't a star, but has proven himself a useful contributor of a MLB organization. His stuff is not overpowering, but through enough groundballs and a kitchen-sink approach, he's shown he's capable of outpacing his advanced metrics. The Cubs will always need pitching depth, and whether or not they enter the 2026 season with plans of Assad in the rotation or the bullpen, he has proven worthy of being a member of either. 

Why the Chicago Cubs should offer Javier Assad a contract:
Pitching depth is valuable, and Javier Assad has the ability to provide depth either in the rotation or the bullpen. It's unquestionable that the Cubs will need to dip into their depth in 2026; last year the Cubs saw Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, and Jameson Taillon hit the IL on the season. Whatever the Cubs' rotation looks like heading into 2026, it's a virtual guarantee that they will need to find people to fill vacancies created by injuries, and Assad would certainly do that. His contract should be around the $2 million range in his first year of arbitration, which would be financially viable as either a starting pitcher or a reliever. 

Why the Chicago Cubs should not offer Javier Assad a contract: 
Assad isn't a dominating pitcher, and his drop-off in strikeouts is a bit concerning. The velocity didn't fall, so you hope that a bit of rust is the cause, but he would struggle to find success if he can only strike out 15% of hitters in 2026. 

One of the biggest things to monitor is how much longer he's able to walk the tightrope of ERA and xFIP splits. He has some aspects of being an "xFIP-beater"—he has a varied arsenal and has groundball tendencies—but he's not elite at the latter, and he doesn't induce a lot of chase. It's fair to wonder if he's going to be able to continue to significantly outperform his expected data. 

Prediction: 
The Cubs tender a contract and settle on a one-year deal in the $2 million area before the arbitration deadline. The Cubs will need pitching depth, and while I think they will enter the 2026 offseason focusing on adding pitching as a priority, even if the crafty right-hander isn't in their rotation Opening Day, barring health, he's going to make starts. 

While I think we would be remiss if we didn't mention his waning strikeout rates and the ERA/xFIP differences, it's all theoretical for now, and it isn't like other pitchers haven't out-pitched their xFIP for years. And at the price tag he's going to command, it's unlikely that, even if the worst-case materializes, Assad is going to sink this club.

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What do you think?
Unlike with Justin Steele, I do think there's a narrow argument you can make to non-tender Assad if you're that concerned with his xFIP. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I think you could make it. Do you think the Cubs will tender Assad? Should they tender Assad? Let me know what you think!

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[Bertz]

Assad feels like trade bait this winter.  The fact that he didn't make the postseason roster was IMO a clear indication of where the club falls on the results/peripherals debate with him.  And I think if you're trying to get more swing and miss onto the staff replacing Assad at swingman with a combo of Wicks and particularly Brown is some low hanging fruit.

I also think Assad is not without value.  Even if you want to give him zero credit for his Houdini antics, the mere fact that he has another minor league option has value.  I think it's also fair to wonder if you can get his velo back above 93 with some conditioning work.  Luck aside Assad actually pitched pretty solidly in '23.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Assad feels like trade bait this winter.  The fact that he didn't make the postseason roster was IMO a clear indication of where the club falls on the results/peripherals debate with him.  And I think if you're trying to get more swing and miss onto the staff replacing Assad at swingman with a combo of Wicks and particularly Brown is some low hanging fruit.

I also think Assad is not without value.  Even if you want to give him zero credit for his Houdini antics, the mere fact that he has another minor league option has value.  I think it's also fair to wonder if you can get his velo back above 93 with some conditioning work.  Luck aside Assad actually pitched pretty solidly in '23.

Yeah, I think at the very least, the club wont enter 2026 with the full cadre of "will-they-wont-they" SP depth they have currently (Brown, Assad, Wicks). Assad feels like someone another team would like; especially if the Cubs pick up Rea's option. I thought they might trade him last offseason, as well. 

As an MLB team you could do a lot worse than Javier Assad as your 5th best SP.

[Clark Addison]

Assad’s greatest asset is his poise. When runners get on base he has the ability to bear down and get out of trouble.  Whether he ends up in the pen or the rotation, that’s a skill the cubs need. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Assad is the perfect pitcher for a team that isn't really trying to compete, but might hope to catch lightning in a bottle with some good results from a guy who will (if he can stay healthy) eat innings and put up solid numbers. A team like the Nationals, Pirates or A's could want him to provide something like 140 innings of solidly average stability with the hope of improvement pushing him above average

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Assad is the perfect pitcher for a team that isn't really trying to compete, but might hope to catch lightning in a bottle with some good results from a guy who will (if he can stay healthy) eat innings and put up solid numbers. A team like the Nationals, Pirates or A's could want him to provide something like 140 innings of solidly average stability with the hope of improvement pushing him above average

I think this is right on.  I'd also say he could be a placeholder for a better team.  Like take the Phillies.  They have Andrew Painter, who they clearly want to be their future ace.  But he did not show enough in AAA this year to warrant a spot in MLB to open next year.  Assad is the type of guy you could nominally have as your 5th starter but who is easy to cast aside as soon as you feel good about Painter.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, I think you two kind of nailed on what I think (and have thought about) Assad. I don't think he's a bad player, and he's made himself into a useful MLB'er. I hope the Cubs enter 2026 with a better 5th SP than Javier. I also think they have some higher upside guys who I'd like to see get looks in the event of an injury.