Chicago Cubs Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Eli Morgan

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Eli Morgan - Relief Pitcher
Age on Opening Day 2026: 30
Service Time: 3.1 years
2023 salary: League Minimum
2024 salary: League Minimum
2025 salary: League Minimum
2026 projected salary: $1,100,000

Background: 
Eli Morgan was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians last offseason. The Cubs had seen their bullpen fail in September 2024, succumbing to injuries and ineffectiveness. Morgan was coming off a sub-2.00 ERA, fueled by good contact suppression. Never much of a strikeout artist, with a fastball averaging under 92 mph, Morgan was still a useful part of a contender's bullpen. 

2025 Season:
The 2025 season was not one to remember for Morgan. He would log just a fraction over seven innings for the Cubs, as he suffered a right elbow impingement in April. Despite attempting a comeback during the season, he was ultimately shut down in August. It's hard to judge Morgan's truncated campaign. His numbers were awful across the board, posting an ERA over 12.00; a strikeout rate of 11.4%; and an xFIP of 6.00. However, considering it was just seven frames and he was clearly injured, it's difficult to see how much was regression and how much his injury contributed 

Cubs' Depth at reliever:
Likely on the MLB roster: Daniel Palencia, Porter Hodge, Andrew Kittredge (1-year option)
On the 40-man roster: Jack Neeley, Jordan Wicks, Luke Little, Javier Assad, Gavin Hollowell, Ethan Roberts
Triple-A options: Jaxon Wiggins, Tom Cosgrove, Riley Martin 

Summary:
The Cubs acquired Morgan to help fix an ailing bullpen. Sadly for both the Cubs and Morgan, he did not help accomplish that. The reliever was always likely to see some regression, as his xFIP sat well above 4.00 even in his ostensibly excellent 2024, but due to his contact suppression, he's got the profile of a FIP-beater. This wasn't the season either side had hoped for, but the injury does give Morgan a bit of an excuse. 

Why the Cubs should offer Eli Morgan a contract: 
Morgan was really good in 2024. Not only did he have a stellar 1.93 ERA on the season, but the crafty hurler had an expected ERA of 2.57. He accomplished this with elite marks in preventing hard contact and keeping the ball in the park. Morgan doesn't need overpowering stuff to be useful. When you add in how good the Cubs' defense should remain going forward, he still seems like a potentially strong option.

Why the Cubs should not offer Eli Morgan a contract: 
The margins for someone like Morgan are precariously thin, as he does not suppress contact through overwhelming stuff. With a below-average heater, the only pitch Morgan throws that grades out above average on shape models is his changeup. He does not offer strong whiff numbers, despite inducing a lot of chase. Elbows are fragile, and it's hard to tell exactly what to expect from Morgan after suffering an elbow problem this year.

Projection: 
The Cubs are likely to tender Morgan a deal, but settle before they go to arbitration at a number below what MLB Trade Rumors projects. Morgan, coming off of a lost year, likely doesn't want to hit the market, and the Cubs are losing much of their bullpen heading into 2026. Depth is always important, when it comes to the pen. Because of this, I think the two can agree on a deal south of the $1,100,000 projection. Even if it's that number or higher, though, this won't be a troublesome line item on the budget. 

If Morgan does return, expect his grasp on a relief role to be tenuous. The Cubs wasted little time cutting relievers last year, as they reimagined their bullpen unit throughout the season. Veterans Ryan Pressly, Julian Merryweather and Chris Flexen were all designated for assignment by the end of July, after starting the season as key arms. Morgan would be a low-leverage guy, though he could work his way up the pecking order if he can look like his 2024 self.

What do you think will happen with Eli Morgan? 
I think I already let the cat out of the bag there. The Cubs have better info than we do on Morgan's elbow and his stuff during rehab work after the injury, but unless the prognosis is worse than you'd guess, they're likely to bring him back. 

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Would you tender Morgan a contract? What should the Cubs do? Let us know in the comments and spark a conversation.

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[Arlen]

It seems that when an injured pitcher has a successful operation, he generally recovers to form or improvement. And it seems when the injured pitcher hasn't had an operation, not so much, not quite as often.  #NipTuck

Edited October 24, 2025 by Arlen
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