Freddy Peralta's Barely Exploitable Weakness is the Cubs' Biggest Game 4 Hope

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Freddy Peralta's long shadow lingers over the remaining two games of the NLDS. Confirmed to start Game 4 in Wrigley, he will need to be vanquished by the Chicago Cubs to advance to the National League Championship Series (or, at least, get to Game 5 in this series). He is the unquestioned best pitcher the Brewers can toss the Cubs' way, sporting a sparkling 2.70 ERA on the season. It may feel like Cubs' offense will be unable to get to "Fastball Freddy", but recent history can give us a glimpse into how the Cubs' can solve the Brewers' staff ace.

Let's rewind time just a bit. It's July 30; the Cubs are visiting Milwaukee as the month closes out. July has not been a fun month—the Brewers have quickly caught the Cubs and the teams are battling for NL Central supremacy. On the mound is our antagonist, Freddy Peralta, entering the game with a 2.81 ERA, meaning runs will seemingly be difficult to find. A whole 85 pitches later, and in just a four-inning outing, the Brewer's best pitcher finished the day having given up five earned runs and striking out just three. It's within this game plan that we can see a path to success for the Cubs tonight.

Strangely enough, the game on July 30 started much like Game 1 of the of the NLDS did: a leadoff Michael Busch home run. On the second pitch of the game, the Cubs' left-handed first baseman pounded a middle-middle fastball 380 feet, leaping off of the bat at nearly 110mph. The two have a bit of strange history against each other, as including Busch's leadoff home run in the playoffs, Peralta has been tagged by the Cubs' slugger for three home runs in 25 trips to the plate... and those three moonshots represent Busch's only hits in those opportunities. Baseball is a cruel mistress. 

In that July 30 game, left-handed hitters would find a lot of success, as both Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong would reach in the first, but the home run would be their only early tally after Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly and Nico Hoerner were unable to help tack on more. 

Issues against the Cubs' lefties would crop back up in the top of the third. Despite getting Busch to fly out, Tucker would single, and after a Seiya Suzuki walk in which Peralta would come nowhere near the strike zone, Crow-Armstrong would stroll to the plate. It's interesting to see how the Brewers' approached the center fielder in this instance, as we know that the youngster is prone to high-fastballs and low breaking balls. Peralta didn't really have the best feel for his stuff this day, as he spiked a curveball, but went mostly fastball-changeup to Crow-Armstrong His mistake was on a two-strike count, leaving his changeup over the plate enough for it to be smashed for a double, which gave the Cubs their second run on the day. 

The biggest at-bat of the game, however, was to another left-handed hitter, this time Moises Ballesteros. The Cubs' rookie was in a very difficult situation: on the road, bases loaded. two outs and facing an elite starting pitcher. At this point, Ballesteros hadn't really settled in at the MLB level yet. Fastball Freddy would once again have a similar approach: fastball-changeup, throwing three of the latter in this at-bat. Once again, in a two-strike count, the Brewers' starter would let his changeup get too much of the plate (though, to be fair, this wasn't a bad pitch, and Ballesteros deserves credit for getting it) and Big Mo deposited the pitch into left field, clearing the bases and giving the Cubs five runs on the day. 

 

We can see the pitch distribution from Freddy Peralta on the day was generally to keep the ball down and away; both the changeups to Pete Crow-Armstrong and Moises Ballesteros were here. And the Cubs, to their credit, went and got these pitches. It wasn't that they're terrible or horribly located, but they are hittable. 

Peralta learned from this outing when we saw him last in Game 1. Our own Matt Trueblood wrote an article on Brewer Fanatic about how Peralta changed his approach throughout Game 1 and is worth a read, but his overall profile has changed as well. Yes, Busch caught another middle-middle fastball, but Peralta changed how he approached Cubs hitters in the contest.

First off, the changeup was not spotted on that outside third; instead, he used it around the knees over the middle of the plate. This played well off his fastball, which he used less up-and-in and instead more out and over the plate. This makes sense—the observed movement of these pitches are opposite of each other. In contrast, in that July start, the fastball and the changeup were observably different, because the fastball (red dots in the chart below) was coming up and in and the changeup (green dots) was fading away, creating an easier distinction. Peralta simply used his stuff better in October. 

I would expect a similar plan of attack from Peralta in Game 4, even at Wrigley. It's going to make life more difficult on the Cubs. We can see this represented in how Peralta attacked lefties prior to August 1, and how he's attacked them since. Before, everything was away, but now, everything is north-and-south. This has lowered his xFIP against LHH considerably, from a 4.70 xFIP down to a 3.58 xFIP. It is unlikely, then, that the same strategy the Cubs hitters deployed in July will work again. They'll need to adapt. 

So, what's the plan here? Have a keen eye, lefties. You have an idea of what the plan is going to be against you now: fastballs up and changeups down, though it's not his only plan (his plan of attack changed as the game went on). His profile is going to be difficult to solve, as his pitches play well off of each other. They're his two best pitches per Statcast Run Value, and he's learned to really use them to full effect. He throws them a lot, over 70% of the time.

There is one weakness Peralta still displays against left-handed hitters: he walks them. Even with the change, he walks lefties 12% of the time (compared to his season walk rate of 9%). So, be patient, and don't chase; the Cubs gave him too much help last time. As Matt outlined, the Cubs did sit on this changeup early in the game, so they were prepared. I would look for it again if he starts showing this pattern.

If the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, it's going to make life tougher. Running into a leadoff home run will be much, much harder, for example. But it also creates an opportunity for misses—if Peralta misses his changeup and he reverts to finding a separation in those pitches, lefties can get to him. Make him throw you strikes, and pay attention.

It's likely going to be be an environment where very few runs are scored, which has been the case in this series outside of the first inning. Fans tend to get frustrated when offenses struggle, but pitchers deserve love and credit when they succeed. Nothing is going to be easy off of one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. But, he has a pattern, and the Cubs will hopefully use it to their advantage. If the Cubs win, it's likely because they figured out the pattern, and if they fail to score, it's probably because Peralta's fastball-changeup combo is dancing like a perfect pair.

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How are you feeling about the Cubs' chances against Peralta? Do you think they can survive for a chance at a sudden death Game 5?

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