With Sinkerballer Quinn Priester Looming, How Can Cubs Stack the Deck in Their Favor in Game 2?

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the NLDS was the kind of contest that could easily eat your soul from the inside, if you let it. The Cubs started the game with a momentum-shifting home run on the second pitch, only to watch the contest quickly devolve into a 9-1 beat down behind (ostensibly) the Cubs' most reliable starting option. It was deflating, to say the least. To avoid dropping down two games to none, the Chicago Cubs will need to bounce back in Monday night's Game 2. While the Brewers have announced southpaw reliever Aaron Ashby as their starter, he will not get the bulk of the innings Monday night. The job of "bulk innings" will instead (very likely) go to sinker merchant Quinn Priester, and the Cubs' hope will be that they can solve him better than they could Freddy Peralta. Thankfully, they have had recent success against Priester, and many of the reasons the Brew Crew are going with an opener stem from that reason.

For starters, the Cubs have seen Priester three times already on the season and have gotten to the right-handed pitcher pretty well. Priester has a 6.28 ERA against the Cubs in three starts, walking as many (11) as he's struck out, and sporting a .393 wOBA against the Cubs lineup. While Priester has been a very good arm in Milwaukee this year, the Cubs seem to see the ball well out of his hand—and are uniquely set up to be a problem for him.

How are they doing it? First, the Cubs offer a pretty lefty-heavy lineup. Michael Busch, (switch-hitting) Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker, and Pete Crow-Armstrong all hit from the left side against righties, and Priester struggles against lefties. We can see this in both his wOBA against southpaws jumping nearly .030, as well as increased walk totals (nearly double the walk rate, compared to right-handed batters) and an increase in xFIP by almost a full point. This makes sense; Priester is a sinker-slider arm, using those two pitches almost 68% of the time. More importantly, he doesn't show a distinct characteristic to go away from those pitches against left-handed-hitters, as his usage of the sinker barely dips (42% to 41%) and while his slider usage drops some, it's still a pitch he'll toss out almost 20% of the time. 

This is almost assuredly why Milwaukee is going the opener route. Busch, the Cubs' left-handed leadoff hitter who homered to start the game, will be neutralized if he's allowed to face Ashby (81 wRC+ against LHP, 151 wRC+ against RHP). While Nico Hoerner and either Seiya Suzuki or Happ will likely bat up in the top three, starting Ashby will help Priester miss some of the left-handed hitters. It's likely the reliever-as-starter will remain in the game through the Cubs' cleanup hitter, Tucker, and while Tucker is essentially split-neutral, it will help shield Priester from his power, as well. 

It's not just that the Cubs have left-handed hitters aplenty, either. The arsenal Priester uses gives the Cubs an advantage. The Cubs rank fourth in the league offensively against sinkers, per FanGraphs. Better yet? The Cubs are third against sliders. 

So, how can the Cubs continue to exploit Priester's weaknesses? It starts with how you pencil in the lineup card, and one change I'd recommend for Craig Counsell is to start utility player Willi Castro in place of Matt Shaw. Castro, a switch-hitter, would create a matchup issue with the pitch mix that Priester presents. While Castro hasn't faired very well on sinkers on the year, with a -2 run value on the pitch according to Baseball Savant (.188 batting average and a .396 slugging on the pitch), his xWOBA is .358 on the pitch, suggesting he's had a fair share of bad luck. He should be capable of teeing off on a few misplaced breaking balls, and he has a strong plate approach in general, so this would be a good time to get use out of your trade deadline acquisition during the playoffs.

The one drawback of taking Shaw out of the lineup and replacing him with Castro, is of course, defense. However, the Cubs are slated to use Shota Imanaga for the bulk of their innings. Imanaga is one of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers in the league, which would negate the value a defensive infielder would bring to the table. You can always bring Shaw's glove in later in the game, when you need to. 

The Cubs clearly think this a viable plan, as we can go back to August 21, the last time the Cubs faced the Brewers' right-handed pitcher, to see how they stacked the lineup. The only primary right-handed hitters in the order that day were Nico Hoerner at second base, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, and Seiya Suzuki at designated hitter (all of whom you should expect to see this time around, as well). Castro started at third (Imanaga started on the mound, it should be noted), and Reese McGuire drew in at catcher to fill the lineup with six left-handed hitters. The result was that the sinkerballer was knocked out in the middle of the fifth after walking five. I don't expect McGuire to play Monday—Carson Kelly is too important—but I do think the Castro-for-Shaw swap is a real likelihood. 

Another thing the Cubs should look to do: get the base runners moving. William Contreras is not a particularly fast pop-time catcher, ranking 48th in the league in pop time and 43rd in exchange. Stolen bases aren't entirely off of catchers, either, and we can look into how the Brewers' likely bulk-inning eater does there, and it's fairly mediocre. He's currently neutral in pitcher stealing runs (the Cubs' Matthew Boyd leads the category with +9), and ranks just 46th in limiting runners' lead distance. Runners are two-of-four against these two as a pair and are 7-11 on the year against the pitcher himself. Below is an example of Oneil Cruz (admittedly, a very good baserunner) taking second on the pair early this season with relative ease. Priester just isn't very quick to the plate with his motion. A high, 94-mph pitch is the best chance you'd draw up to get Cruz, and it wasn't even close.

Priester gets 56% ground balls and doesn't really limit hard hits, ranking in the 59th percentile of that statistic. This means that anyone at first base is a prime target for a decently hard-hit ground ball at an infielder, resulting in a double play. So how do you stay out of it? Go take second, before you can lose it. That might also move the infielders, as they break to cover the bag, and open new holes through which to shoot a single. This isn't an impervious plan, as the two are clearly somewhat decent together (runners have a 50% clip of getting hosed), but pick your poison. You either let your speed talk on the bases or you let the Brewers' defensive crew up the middle eat you alive. I'll take my chances on the bases.

The Cubs should be able to take advantage of the Brewers here. Obviously, we shouldn't expect early-season baserunning from Tucker with his current calf issue, but Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, Hoerner and either of Shaw or Castro are more than capable of swiping a bag or two. The Cubs are the third-best baserunning team in baseball, have the fourth-most bases swiped, are third in stolen base value and have only been caught 35 times despite their aggressive style. Take what isn't a strength of the Brewers on this day and tilt it to your advantage, by using what you are good at. 

The last bit of advice for Cubs hitters: leave the low-and-away pitch there. When painting the outside corner to left-handed hitters, Priester will groundball you to death. That area is his stomping ground, and the one place he can truly beat lefties. It's a subtle difference, but get him to find the plate by just a few more inches, and all of a sudden you land in the area where lefties find the most success.

Priester isn't going to dominate you with pure stuff. His opponent chase rate is in the 29th percentile, his whiff rate is in the 44th, and none of his pitches jump out as Stuff+ monsters, with his best-shaped pitch being his slider (103; 100 is average). You can allow yourself to get a little deeper into a count to avoid that roll-over ground ball, if need be. Now, you should expect he will pound the zone, as his first-pitch strike rate is 65% and he's in the zone 52% of the time in general, but if you have to watch strike one because it's in the "ground ball danger zone," there isn't a massive fear he's going to dominate you after that and rack up a bunch of strikeouts. 

So, that's my game plan for Game 2. Get the lefties in the lineup; be judicious but aggressive in taking an extra bag; and at the plate, bring your sights up and don't help the Brewers pitcher out by grounding the ball into the dirt.

There's nothing foolproof in baseball; even the best-laid plans fail. The Cubs can stack with left-handed hitters, and the Brewers may not use Priester as much as thought. The Cubs can make a lot of hard contact that find gloves. They could get killed on the bases. Things rarely go exactly how you'd like them. But, I think there's a blueprint to attack the Brewers' (likely) main pitcher on Monday night, and that's going to help give them a strong foundation to find a win in Milwaukee. The Cubs have had success against him before, and have employed these very same tactics. This is a very winnable game—don't let the stench of Game 1 come with you. This series is far from over; steal a win in Milwaukee and you shift the momentum before heading back down to Chicago.

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What do you think of the Cubs' chances on Monday night? Do you think the Cubs can get to the Brewers' pitcher? Let us know in the comments below!

 

 

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