You Get as Many Shots as You Create: Cubs Win NL Wild Card Series By Outlasting Padres

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

This season was a frustrating one for Jameson Taillon, personally. He wasn't able to take the ball as often as he expects of himself—not for the reasons that feel inevitable and understandable, like a balky elbow, but because of groin and calf strains. He put up good numbers when on the mound, but he knew there was more to give. The starts he missed felt big; the Cubs' thin-stretched starting rotation was part of the reason why they fell slowly out of the NL Central race after the trade deadline.

With the team's clinch of a playoff berth, though, came a new chance to come through for the team, the way Taillon is always desperate to. He's a team-first guy, playing one of the most individualistic positions in team sport. He knows he can execute, and come up with the big outs in big moments, but he wasn't able to create that chance for himself this summer. He needed the autumn to deliver another opportunity. Unfortunate as it was, Cade Horton's injury after the team secured their place in the postseason gave Taillon an opening. The Cubs and Padres splitting the first two games left them needing a third starter in the first round, and Taillon was there.

And he was brilliant. As a starting pitcher, there are two ways you move your team toward a win in a winner-advances game like Thursday's:

1. Keep runs off the board better than the other guy; and
2. Get more sheer outs than the other guy.

Obviously, the first is more important, but the second thing matters, too. It matters a lot. The Padres' pen was more exhausted than the Cubs', entering Thursday, but the Cubs had concerns of their own. With all hands on deck (but fatigue a real factor for some and the next round to think about, too), being able to go to the bullpen later than one's opponent is an undeniable advantage. It won't make up for giving up three more runs than the other guy, but if you only give up one more and you also give your team seven or eight more outs than the other guy, you might still let your team come out ahead.

Taillon eliminated that tricky math, because he was much, much better than Yu Darvish, on both measures. Darvish gave up one run (and was charged with a second, when the Cubs doubled their lead after he left with the bases loaded in the bottom of the second). Taillon gave up none. And Taillon got nine more outs than Darvish, leaving the Padres drawing way too deep into the well way too early, and chasing the game to boot.

In his former life, a big injury or three ago, Taillon was a swing-and-miss guy. He could be a strikeout artist. That's not him anymore, though. He's only induced whiffs on about 20% of opponents' swings the last two years. He's not a whiff monster—except that, on Thursday, he was. Taillon induced 11 whiffs on 31 swings, against one of the league's highest-contact lineups. He struck out four, but he also got so many whiffs (and called strikes) within at-bats that he seemed to be constantly ahead in the count. His velocity wasn't markedly different than it usually is, but his changeup and cutter each had an extra bit of depth, and it made a world of difference.

Taillon spun four shutout innings. He got some help from the Cubs' marvelous defense, along the way, but he left after four, having only allowed two hits and struck out four, without walking anyone. When Caleb Thielbar took over to begin the fifth, the Cubs led 2-0—and they were way ahead in the pitching race, too.

It wouldn't have been 2-0, though, without Dansby Swanson. Like Taillon, Swanson is in his third season with the Cubs. Like Taillon, he signed a big contract with them, and like Taillon, he's generally been viewed as underwhelming from a return-on-investment standpoint. If you keep creating chances, though, redemption eventually becomes possible. Swanson, who takes such fierce pride in playing (almost, now) every day, stayed healthy this year. He stayed engaged, despite hitting into some truly lousy luck and not getting sequences of good swing decisions quite right throughout the first half. Down the stretch, he was much better at the plate—and his defense began to shine, in the small and wonderful ways that are unique to the aging shortstop making up for the slight diminishment of their athleticism. He was as important to the Cubs getting to October as (almost) anyone. And Thursday, he was as important to them taking the next step as anyone—no 'almost' about it.

Swanson was a human highlight reel throughout the series. He stole a hit or two from Ryan O'Hearn in Game 1. He made a handful of strong plays Wednesday, always smooth and athletic, always seeming to release the ball as soon as he got ahold of it, making up for the lack of an elite arm by getting the throw airborne sooner than another shortstop would have. On Thursday, he seemed to be ubiquitous. He stole one hit by knocking down a would-be line drive single to center by Luis Arráez, then quickly recovering from not catching it and throwing Arráez out. He stole another from Arráez on a grounder later in the game, running left and diving to smother before throwing out the slow-footed first baseman. He closed down one Padres rally with a 6-3 double play, on which he had to run four or five steps at a dead sprint to second before throwing on the run for the twin killing. He was mistake-free, and rangy, and gorgeous.

He was also the biggest reason they had a lead to work with, that his glove could protect. In the bottom of the second, as Darvish folded under a vicious assault by the middle of the Cubs lineup, they got one run on the board. The bases were loaded with nobody out, and Mike Shildt went to his bullpen—to strikeout machine and former Cubs righty Jeremiah Estrada. Swanson was due up, and Estrada jumped ahead of him 1-2. Then, Swanson went to work. He forced a seven-pitch walk, which drove home the second run and set the tone for the rest of the night. The Cubs would stay ahead in the pitching race, that at-bat said, and they would have a multi-run lead to protect while doing so. 

Swanson has been as patient as ever this year, but the walk rate hasn't always tracked to that. Lately, he's done a very impressive job of converting his three-ball counts to walks. It makes a huge difference; it certainly did Thursday. Between that patient at-bat and his great defense, he was the man of the match for Chicago. Throughout the series, he was nails. Never get between Dansby Swanson and a championship, once his sights are on it.

The game froze at 2-0 a long time, and looked like it might have to end that way. (Given the trouble the Cubs had getting the final three outs, thank goodness that wasn't the case.) As sunset approached, the seventh-inning stretch passed, and the Padres asked Robert Suarez to work into a second inning. They probably envisioned him throwing that whole frame. Instead, in Wrigley Field's golden hour under fall's color splashes, Michael Busch delivered magic to match the majesty. 

It was a very neat equivalent to Kyle Schwarber's game-sealing homer in the 2015 NLDS. All that was missing was the video-board landing. Of players with at least 500 plate appearances this season, Busch had the 10th-highest DRC+ in the majors—behind guys like Schwarber and Cal Raleigh, but ahead of guys like Corbin Carroll, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and (yes) Fernando Tatis Jr. This was an earned heroic turn; Busch has been the biggest reason for the Cubs' consistent success this year.

The pitch he hit was wonderfully reminiscent of one on which he walked off the Padres almost 18 months ago, when he was a rookie and there still seemed to be problematic holes in his swing. The fastball up and away, they said, would get Busch out. It did, until it didn't, and when he's ready for it, not even 98 with plenty of air under it is enough to keep you safe. Busch put the cherry on the sundae; the party started right then.

Of course, it was nearly pooped by a tenacious Padres rally. There's no quit in San Diego's team, and plenty of talent, even with some injuries that diminished them during this tangle. They avoided being down by more thanks to close calls (and reviews that went their way) on baserunning plays involving Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner. They nearly benefited from another hair's-breadth Cubs heartbreak when Jake Cronenworth tried to beat out a ninth-inning dribbler, but Matt Shaw made a great play and Busch (for the second or third time in the game) made a dispositively excellent stretch to the ball. Chicago survived, and they now advance to face the Brewers in what will be one of the most charged Division Series showdowns in history. It was a team effort, but the heroics of Taillon, Swanson and Busch stand out from the crowd. The second-gutsiest trade Jed Hoyer has made since taking over the team paid off hugely. So did two of his biggest free-agent outlays. With the season swinging in the balance, the Cubs found the right answers at just the right moments.

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