All Hands on Deck: Your Road Map to the Chaos of Cubs-Padres Game 3

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Winner-advances games are the most fun dynamic baseball gives us. The compression of a Wild Card Series—with so little buildup, no days off and no changes of venue—slightly diminishes the magic one feels ahead of a Game 5 or a Game 7, but even a Game 3 can take on the frenzied feel of an all-in hand of poker. The way the Cubs and Padres each played to get to their date on Thursday evening, that feeling will be cranked up to its maximum.

Let's begin with the dramatis personae for this play in nine acts.

Projected Padres Lineup

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. - RF
2. Luis Arráez - 1B
3. Manny Machado - 3B
4. Jackson Merrill - CF
5. Xander Bogaerts - SS
6. Ryan O'Hearn - DH
7. Gavin Sheets - LF
8. Jake Cronenworth - 2B
9. Freddy Fermin - C

This is the same group the visitors have run out to begin each of the first two games. The Cubs are starting a righty Thursday, rather than the southpaws who took up the bulk on Tuesday and Wednesday, but honestly, the San Diego lineup makes more sense against righties, anyway.

Projected Cubs Lineup

1. Michael Busch - 1B
2. Nico Hoerner - 2B
3. Ian Happ - LF
4. Kyle Tucker - DH
5. Seiya Suzuki - RF
6. Carson Kelly - C
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF
8. Dansby Swanson - SS
9. Matt Shaw - 3B

This, too, is the same group the Cubs have already been using. There'd ordinarily be an argument for batting Pete Crow-Armstrong ahead of Carson Kelly, but the Cubs are trying to keep their very right-leaning bottom half of the batting order broken up enough to deter some of the more devastating bullpen tricks Mike Shildt might otherwise throw at them.

Starting Pitchers

• Yu Darvish - 15 GS, 72 IP, 5.38 ERA, 23% K, 6.4% BB, 4.7% HR, 39.4% GB, 97 DRA-
• Jameson Taillon - 23 GS, 129 2/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 18.9% K, 5.2% BB, 4.6% HR, 33.8% GB, 114 DRA-

You don't need exhaustive histories on either of these guys right now. Neither will work especially deep into this game, anyway. Matt Ostrowski wrote a great piece about Taillon's transformation this year via his altered changeup this morning, and I included a bunch of thoughts about Darvish in my scene-setter for the morning. Check those out, if you haven't already done so.

The Crucial Bullpen Picture
To speak about these questions more concretely and more accurately, let's review the Bullpen Usage chart for each team. First, for the Padres.

Player	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Estrada	19	0	0	10	0	29
Morgan	0	21	0	0	0	21
Miller	17	0	0	13	27	57
Hart	0	0	0	0	0	0
Suárez	9	0	0	0	18	27
Morejón	8	0	0	9	33	50
Peralta	0	0	0	6	0	6
Rodríguez	0	21	0	0	0	21
Matsui	37	0	0	0	0	37
Vasquez	0	19	0	0	0	19

It's a win-or-go-home situation, so everyone is available. That said, the Padres have stretched themselves quite thin in relief. Maybe it makes the most sense to begin by talking about the non-premium arms here. It's incredible to watch Bradgley Rodríguez pitch, working at 98-99 miles per hour with two different fastballs and a dedicated secondary for both lefties and righties. He has an arm good enough to rank right alongside Jeremiah Estrada and claim high-leverage work. However, if Shildt really trusted him, he wouldn't be in the group of hurlers who haven't warmed up yet this series and who absorbed some spare innings Sunday. Clearly, there's at least a nagging doubt that he'll hold together under the pressure of a good opposing offense in the playoffs. Unless Darvish falls apart early, don't expect to see Rodríguez.

David Morgan and Yuki Matsui are better candidates to do some bridge work. Each has the same weakness: a walk rate up around 12%. The Cubs have really struggled to convert good at-bats to walks lately, though, so that weakness might be mitigated by this particular opponent. Each can be nasty, but each (Morgan righty-righty, Matsui lefty-lefty) is someone Shildt would prefer to hold for narrow matchup work. Randy Vásquez and Kyle Hart are on the roster in case the game goes 12 or 16 innings.

Of the remaining hurlers, it's too much to assume that any are unavailable, but there are some places where usage will be tightly constrained. Wandy Peralta will be the first choice for Shildt whenever he decides he needs a big out against a lefty batter, be that Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker or Pete Crow-Armstrong. Adrián Morejón is one of two pitchers I would guess Shildt will try to stay away from entirely, if possible. He just pitched so much in Game 2.

The other barely-available arm (thankfully, if you're a Cubs supporter) is Mason Miller. He's a long-term investment for the team. He would need to be intact for the Division Series for them to have a chance there. As tempting as it might be to call upon him for a third straight day, I think Shildt will do everything possible to avoid that. It helps the Cubs' cause a bit that they forced Robert Suarez to throw 18 pitches to save Game 2. That might keep him to just one inning of work Thursday—though given the aggressive deployment Shildt decided on with both Morejón and Miller Wednesday, it seems like whenever the situation demands it, Suarez will be there.

The wild card is Jeremiah Estrada. He has filthy stuff, but he's been human this year. He didn't look great Tuesday, but would love the chance to redeem himself more than any other pitcher out there, after the Cubs gave up on him too soon two years ago. He'll be the first-choice right-handed reliever, if Darvish gets San Diego into the middle of the game with anything like a lead.

Specifically, because this can matter, here's who each of the important relievers has faced so far in the series. These guys might have incremental advantages if the same matchup recurs; batters do adapt to seeing relievers multiple times in a short span.

Pitcher/Batter	Busch	Hoerner	Happ	Tucker	Suzuki	Kelly	Crow-Armstrong	Swanson	Shaw	Ballesteros
Suarez		X	X	X	X
Miller	X				XX	XX	XX	X		X
Estrada		X						X	X
Morejón	XX	XX	XX	XX			X	X	X
Peralta			X

Now, let's talk about the Cubs' side of the equation.

Player	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Palencia	0	0	0	17	0	17
Soroka	0	7	0	0	6	13
Keller	26	0	0	13	0	39
Kittredge	0	0	0	14	20	34
Pomeranz	11	0	0	11	0	22
Thielbar	15	0	0	0	14	29
Rogers	0	0	0	0	13	13
Rea	0	0	0	0	15	15
Civale	0	0	0	0	0	0

I was very surprised by the way Counsell reeled through his relievers in Game 2, chasing a win that the offense never gave him much chance to claim. Again, everyone is technically available, but in reality, Andrew Kittredge isn't available. He's worked about as hard the last two days as Miller, and although he doesn't throw 104 miles per hour, Kittredge is a graybeard. Trotting him out three days in a row would be asking for trouble.

Aaron Civale is the guy on this list who's only there in case of a long extra-inning slog. Colin Rea, a starter by trade who started Friday and threw 15 pitches on his usual rotation day Wednesday, might be available for a short burst Thursday but won't be a priority selection.

Otherwise, Counsell's unit is pretty free and fresh. Caleb Thielbar worked on consecutive days 15 times this year and was fine when called upon, but Drew Pomeranz will be the first southpaw Counsell looks to, you'd think. Taylor Rogers will only pitch if Taillon has to leave within about two innings and a true bullpen game breaks out.

Daniel Palencia and Brad Keller are not only available, but likely to combine for something like nine outs, if things go according to plan for Counsell. They were each excellent on Tuesday, and neither got the call Wednesday. Indeed, some of Counsell's liberal use of the carousel might have been a way to ensure that he didn't burn out any of the individuals he was using, but that he absolutely wouldn't have to restrict his own choices with regard to Palencia and Keller.

Pitcher/Batter	Tatis	Arraez	Machado	Merrill	Bogaerts	O'Hearn	Sheets	Cronenworth	Fermin	Johnson
Keller			X	X	X
Palencia	X	X	X	X	X
Pomeranz						X	X	X
Thielbar					X	X		X		X
Soroka	X								X
Kittredge	XX	XX	X	X	X

Reliever familiarity can matter, but it's probably esoterica in this case. Each manager is really just looking for the right moment to pull their starter and the right decision points to swing from one reliever to the next—and hoping not to hit a whammy along the way. For Counsell, that's probably when Taillon gets through the batting order the second time, just as it was for Matthew Boyd. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Thielbar come in even earlier, though, cutting the day short at 14 or 15 batters faced for the starter and slicing through the lefty lane in the Padres lineup as they come up the second time. Then, the formula could be much the same as it was in Game 1, but with Keller ready to come in an inning earlier.

A Few Minor Tactical Notes
The Cubs would do well to get Moisés Ballesteros into the game to hit for Matt Shaw or Carson Kelly, if the Padres are locked into a particular righty and the leverage is high enough. Losing a bit of defensive acumen (by going from Kelly to Reese McGuire or Shaw to Willi Castro) is worth it, and the Cubs' bench is plenty deep enough to get through one game. Again, should we see Morgan, keep in mind that he has big platoon splits from the mound side.

Darvish and Morgan are the Padres hurlers against whom it's easiest to run. If the Cubs can just get someone on base early, they should be able to take advantage of San Diego by stealing a bag or two.

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There you have it: all the matchups fit to discuss. This game will be an adventure from first pitch to last. The twists in between are what make playoff baseball a whole different sport than the regular-season version—but a great sport, thank you. With a great deal at stake for each side, this could be hard-fought even for a game of its kind. Savor it.

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