Anatomy of an Opener: How Cubs Will Navigate Game 2's Decision Points

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Shota Imanaga will still get the ball for the Chicago Cubs in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series Wednesday at Wrigley Field. He just won't be the first one to do so. After they secured a Game 1 win Tuesday afternoon, the Cubs announced that Andrew Kittredge will start Game 2. Kittredge, who has only gotten more than three outs in a game twice this season, certainly isn't standing in for Imanaga. Nor is he the tip of a bullpen game spear. He's just an opener—a job he's done more than a dozen times before, in a long big-league career spent mostly with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Kittredge is the high-leverage righty who matches up best with the Padres' key righty bats, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. He pitched the eighth inning in Game 1, and dispatched San Diego in order on 14 pitches. He saw Freddy Fermin, Tatis and Luis Arráez, but not Machado. Unless Mike Shildt is brave enough to significantly shake up his lineup in response to Craig Counsell's tactic, Kittredge will open Wednesday by facing Tatis, Arráez and Machado—and perhaps Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts.

In a series like this one, with up to three games but no days off, every reliever is essentially available twice. A manager might turn to a reliever for all three games of a series that goes the distance, but only in an emergency. By asking Daniel Palencia for five outs in Game 1, Counsell all but announced that the second game in which he would be available is Game 3. Brad Keller, currently holding the anchor role in the relay team that is the Chicago pitching staff, will be called upon to sew up a second win on whichever day the team can position themselves for one, so he needs to remain flexibly available Wednesday. However, with Palencia locked into an appearance Thursday (or not until the weekend, if the Cubs win today), Counsell is using Kittredge up front because he knows he'll need him, and against whom he wants to use him. The change dares Shildt to slide Tatis and/or Machado down in the lineup to punish Kittredge with lefty batters, but if the San Diego skipper takes that bait, he risks seeing his season end with one of those star sluggers in the on-deck circle—while Ryan O'Hearn or Gavis Sheets takes their fifth plate appearance of the afternoon.

Using Kittredge right away also slips Imanaga past the meat of the Padres order, the first time through. If he sails through the first with ease or if he's in an early jam, Counsell might well let Kittredge stay in even to face Bogaerts. Thus, when Imanaga does enter, the first batters he faces will be drawn mostly from the Padres' pool of good-not-great left-handed batters. He won't have to bear the times-through-the-order penalty against Tatis or Machado any time before the fourth or fifth inning, and he can face up to 24 batters without facing Tatis or Machado a third time. It's unlikely that Imanaga will pitch to that many batters in this game, anyway. The only scenario in which he does so is one in which the Cubs trail, but narrowly, and he's pitching very well.

We can, broadly, sketch the plans Counsell has in mind for the various forms the game might take, understanding that everything is subject to change in playoff baseball.

• PLAN A: Kittredge (1), Imanaga (5), Michael Soroka (1), Caleb Thielbar (1), Keller (1) - If no individual pitcher runs into major trouble, and if the Cubs can carve out even a small lead, this is the idea. Kittredge takes care of business in the first, then yields to Imanaga, who slices through the lineup twice (plus a batter or two). With someone like Jose Iglesias or Freddy Fermin due to see him a third time, instead, Imanaga will give way to Michael Soroka, who will pitch them through the briar patch of Tatis and Machado. Caleb Thielbar will be tasked with shutting down the very lefty-heavy band of the Padres lineup one last time, before Keller comes into finish the job.
• PLAN B: Kittredge (1), Imanaga (2), Rea (3), Thielbar (1), Soroka (1), Keller (1) - This is what happens if Imanaga doesn't have it Wednesday, and is getting hit hard or giving up home runs one turn through the batting order—but the Cubs are keeping the game in winnable territory with their bats. Colin Rea is the long man Counsell trusts most, even though Soroka is a key cog for this playoff bullpen. The latter is better-suited to a short-relief role than is Rea, and this is where Rea could shine. Of course, the usage of each of the last three hinges on whether the team does successfully keep the game winnable.
• PLAN C: Kittredge (1), Imanaga (3), Soroka (1), Thielbar (1), Civale (3), Rogers (1) - This is the outright "uh-oh" plan. If Kittredge gets ambushed or Imanaga gets shelled, and if the team is down by two or three runs by the top of the sixth, we're likely to see Aaron Civale and Taylor Rogers eat innings to close out the game. Given the strength of San Diego's bullpen, a deficit of any more than a run after the game's midpoint has to be treated like an expected loss today; the Cubs have that luxury and need to remember it. In this case, Counsell would keep the powder dry, not only reserving Keller's second appearance for Game 3 but choosing Civale over Rea. That would leave Rea, along with Drew Pomeranz, Keller, Thielbar and Palencia free to provide support to Jameson Taillon if needed on Thursday.

This isn't a sign of mistrust in Imanaga; it's just a response to the unique structure of the Padres' roster and lineup. Imanaga should be the second arm into the fray, and he should stick around a while. How long will depend on how the game goes, but the Cubs don't have to sweat the details overly profusely in advance. The Padres are the ones with the narrow path to advancing, now. The Cubs have lots of ways to achieve that, and using their second Kittredge outing right at the front end of this contest is just a way of gaining more information while leveraging that greater flexibility.

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