Cubs Hitter of the Year [WAIT UNTIL REGULAR SEASON ENDS FOR PUB}

[Brian Kelder]

Consistency.

This award, the Cubs Hitter of the Year, will not go to the most exciting Cub. It won't go to the highest paid Cub. It won't go to a flashy acquisition who may or may not have a major calf issue. 

In May, the Cubs offense was flying high, and Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong were legitimate MVP candidates. Michael Busch was looking like the 2025 Leon Durham. For the first half, the team averaged over five runs per game. Based on a league average OPS of .720, the Cubs far exceeded that total as a group with a stellar .771. 

Then, the second half hit. These are not great trends:

Batting Average: from .256 first half to .237 in the second

OBP: 325 down to .311

SLG: .446 to .390

WRC+ Team total 108 at the time of this writing.

The Cubs struggled in the second half, except for one man.

For this award, there will be one person and one only who remained consistent for the entire season. The Hitter of the Year is Nico Hoerner.

Just look at that. Never below a .284 batting average. Never below a .330 OBP. In a season marked with inconsistency of key players, Nico has been a pillar of safe production. But there's more when the numbers are dug into.

With two outs: .321/.367/.425. Nico has kept innings alive

With runners in scoring position: .370/.422/.459. He's performed in clutch situations.

High leverage: .333/.375/.441. 

WRC+ only has Hoerner at 112, or 12% over an average hitter. He's the kind of hitter that is hard to measure in a catch all stat, though. Don't be fooled by the One Stat; Nico Hoerner has been the best and most valuable Cub hitter for the season.

Also Considered:

Carson Kelly: Kelly was projected according to ZIPS to have a slash line of .220/.298/.347 in the preseason. With five games to go, he crushed the projections with a .252/.337/.437. He also has 17 home runs, much higher than his projected 8. Kelly was incredible in April. He hit seven of his longballs in that month with 21 RBI and a .360 batting average. 

When Jed Hoyer took some heat for talking about "overperforming projections," this is exactly what he meant. Kelly couldn't maintain his historic pace, but those stats still count in the aggregate. Home run signing for Hoyer, and while he never really had a chance at this award he does deserve mention.

Kyle Tucker: The favorite for this award until that pesky finger, and then that even peskier calf. A 22 home run, 25 stolen base season is impressive, and his 139 WRC+ is in line with his career norms. The Cubs got what they paid for, but not at the volume they would have hoped. One can only wonder if buyer's remorse has set in.

Now, the debate and fascinating part of Tucker is that he's a free agent, and Cam Smith is a promising rookie with six years of control. It will be fascinating to see how much money free agency can net him, and how much risk teams will assume based on his last two season's injury risk. Time will tell this, but it is a guarantee his agent will not be able to hold the prestigious Northside Baseball Hitter of the Year award up as proof of worth.

Other players had stretches that were notable, such as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Matt Shaw. Ultimately, though, their cold streaks were just too damaging to be considered.

The Cubs have had a solid offensive season, just not a consistent one. Nico Hoerner was an outlier here; Craig Counsell surely enjoyed penciling his production in the lineup every day. An unexpected award, but it is truly a deserved one. 

 

 

View full article

[Victor Reichman]

Hoerner, MVP of team followed by Horton and Busch. Here are my grades for all:

Busch B, Hoerner A+, Tucker C+, Happ C+, Suzuki B, Kelly B, Swanson C, PCA B-, Shaw C, McGuire C+, Turner D, Castro D-, Amaya B.

Horton A+ Imogena B, Rea B, Boyd B+, Brown D, Palencia B+, Kittridge B, Theilbar B+Pomeranz B+ Assad B, Keller A-, Soroka D.  Counsel C