Projecting Chicago Cubs' Playoff Roster for Wild Card Series Against Padres: The Pitchers

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Earlier this morning, we talked through the options the Cubs face when constructing a 26-man roster for their upcoming Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. In the process, I proposed that the team is likely to carry 15 position players, allowing for the possibilities of injury, ejection and mid-game substitutions, be they tactical or based on the nagging injuries a few key hitters are carrying. 

Now, it's time to look at the other side of the roster list. If the Cubs do take 15 hitters, they'll have 11 pitchers to work with as Craig Counsell prepares for 81 outs (or a few more, or many fewer) over three days. Let's talk about who they'll be, and who's on the outside looking in.

Starters (3)

• Matthew Boyd
• Shota Imanaga
• Jameson Taillon

It would be a substantial upset, for me, if the Cubs gave the ball to anyone but the three hurlers named above, or in any other order—should the series go three games. Matthew Boyd pitched Wednesday night against the Mets, and is on full rest, set up nicely for Game 1 of the Wild Card set. That, of course, was the place the team might initially have hoped to reserve for Cade Horton, but Horton cracked a rib somewhere between his final two regular-season starts and is likely out for the year.

The news could be worse. Boyd has been wonderful for the Cubs this year, though of course, he's struggled more in the second half after earning an All-Star nod with a brilliant beginning of the campaign. He and Shota Imanaga each give the Padres some tough matchups, because San Diego doesn't hit lefties well. Each also figures to make a relatively short start, but that's ok. If the Cubs can get to the sixth inning with a lead, they'll feel very confident. That will be the task before both Boyd and Imanaga. If the series goes to a decisive third contest, the story might be different with Jameson Taillon, a righty who doesn't match up as nicely with the Padres and who hasn't been as impressive this season as his two southpaw teammates.

Relievers (8)

• Brad Keller
• Andrew Kittredge
• Daniel Palencia
• Caleb Thielbar
• Drew Pomeranz
• Michael Soroka
• Taylor Rogers
• Colin Rea

The closest thing to a controversial call here is that Colin Rea is penciled in as a reliever, rather than as the third starter. Taillon and Rea have been similarly effective this year, all told, and admittedly, this is at least partially a nod to Taillon's greater seniority and heftier contract. Still, Rea is also more compelling as a potential multi-inning reliever, because he has an arsenal that can be pared down and tweaked for maximum effect in the bullpen—and experience doing so, to boot.

Rea pitched Friday; Taillon went Saturday. That means that Rea should be available for medium-length relief as soon as Game 1, whereas Taillon won't be ready to go (except in some truncated relief role) until Thursday, when Game 3 would be played. Rea is also the better complement to the pitch profiles of Boyd and Imanaga, so if Counsell ends up needing a bridge from one of his lefty starters to his higher-leverage relievers, Rea is a plausible one; Taillon is less so.

Look for Counsell to seek out the left-leaning pockets of the Padres lineup and make aggressive use of both Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz, but perhaps just one of them in each of the first two games. That should keep any San Diego hitter from getting unduly good looks at them. Once you reach October, the risk of overexposing a reliever to a specific batter from the opposing team becomes real and worrisome. That's why having multiple trusted relievers for each role is so valuable. 

Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge and Daniel Palencia have pitched in the same game nine times this year, and (in varying orders) that seems to be the trio Counsell most trusts to close out games. If he can get his starters through five and get some help from one of his lefties, though, he should be able to hold back one of the three (plus Michael Soroka) even if he's protecting a lead in one game. That's valuable.

The names who don't appear here are, in a few cases, as compelling as the ones who do. This roster leaves off Aaron Civale, who last pitched for the team on Sept. 24 and could give them a lot of length—but whose stuff hasn't leapt forward since he moved to the bullpen for the first time, and who probably isn't fit for any kind of dangerous work. It excludes Ben Brown and Porter Hodge, as they wind down disappointing seasons. It excludes offseason additions-turned-injury cases Ryan Brasier and Eli Morgan, although if either of them has shown the team something compelling recently in rehab work or a Triple-A Iowa, they could always be tacked on as a 12th arm, squeezing out one of the hitters I project to make the team almost by default. 

Javier Assad also isn't listed. He made (more or less) a full start Sunday, and appears to be tracking toward making a start or providing bulk innings in a tandem effort should the team reach the NLDS. He's the second-most interesting name not projected to make the cut here whom the team might include, after all. The most interesting: Jaxon Wiggins. It's toweringly unlikely that the Cubs are planning to sneak Wiggins into the back end of their bullpen, with an eye toward him making his big-league debut in the postseason, If they feel they need an infusion of raw stuff, though, Wiggins is the most intriguing way they could do it.

Those are all the names worth saying, in this context. Whether the team ultimately goes with 11 or 12 arms, most of these will be there. Counsell will remain cagey and creative, but however he prefers to get from Out No. 1 to Out No. 81, the Cubs have decent pitching depth for this time of year. They're in a good position. Whether that will matter is likely to come down to execution, now.

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