Projecting Chicago Cubs' Playoff Roster for Wild Card Series Against Padres: The Hitters

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Building a roster for a win-or-go-home best-of-three series is an entirely different challenge than building one to win 92 games across 162 in a six-month marathon. The Cubs were patient and methodical all year, using their hot start to the 2025 season to accommodate a steady approach the rest of the way. Now, that all comes to an abrupt end. Beginning Tuesday afternoon, the Cubs and the San Diego Padres will play a best-of-three series for the right to advance to the National League Division Series. Every inning, every out, and every pitch will matter; every decision they make between now and Thursday night will matter.

The nature of this short a series both raises and lowers the stakes of certain roster choices. Craig Counsell will, of course, only need three starters (at most) this week, and he'll have a fresh set of relievers to turn to behind them. There's no reason for the team to carry more than 12 pitchers, and even that might turn out to be too many. On the other hand, when every pitch matters and there are only three games to play, 14 or 15 position players feels like a bit of an extravagance, too. For a club that tried to stick to a very regular starting nine for most of this season, the bench won't feel especially vital.

In a moment, though, those players can become extremely important. There are tactical gambles you take in playoff games that you would eschew in regular-season ones. There are also some injury issues to consider, with this particular team, that make having a deeper corps of position players than would be typical fairly appealing. All that has to be part of the conversation, but broad strokes won't do. Let's get into the specifics of a Cubs playoff roster projection, one roster segment at a time. We'll break this up into two parts, starting with the hitters.

Catchers (2)

• Carson Kelly
• Reese McGuire

It would be lovely to find Miguel Amaya able to contribute to this team after all, but it feels like this round is too soon to even dream of it. If his efforts to demonstrate his readiness go well, he could be sent to the Arizona Fall League to maintain his timing and stay in shape, but he shouldn't take Reese McGuire's job (or even be added as a third backstop) in either the Wild Card round or (should the Cubs get that far) the Division Series. An NLCS return is a more reasonable hope, but even that might be a remote one.

Carson Kelly is likely to start every game through at least a round or two, anyway. McGuire has done yeoman's work as an emergency fill-in, but his OBP this season is .239. It's nice that this series will be played in the afternoons; Kelly hit .235/.322/.375 at night but .266/.346/.491 in day games this year.

Infielders (6)

• Michael Busch
• Nico Hoerner
• Dansby Swanson
• Matt Shaw
• Willi Castro
• Justin Turner

No surprises here, and no controversy. The starting infield will be the same every day during at least this series. There are some circumstances under which Counsell might choose to pinch-hit for Michael Busch with Justin Turner, and if and when that time comes, I implore you to react reasonably. As ugly as his overall numbers are, Turner has been fine since his ice-cold start, and downright solid if you isolate his numbers against lefties. The key development recently is the emergence of Moisés Ballesteros as a secondary lefty bat who can play first base, where the team plugged him in twice over the weekend. After Turner comes in for Busch, in later stages of the game, Ballesteros might come on for Turner against a righty reliever.

Castro has struggled mightily in a Cubs uniform, and had struggled in the last few weeks of his tenure with the Minnesota Twins. He rushed back from an oblique strain earlier this year and hasn't been the same; the smart money says he'll appear only as a replacement in cases of injury or ejection.

Outfielders (5)

• Ian Happ
• Pete Crow-Armstrong
• Seiya Suzuki
• Kyle Tucker
• Kevin Alcántara

Which of Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki starts in right field will be worth watching, especially for Shota Imanaga's start in Game 2. Suzuki struggles with the sky during day games and the sun will slant cruelly into the right fielder's eyes during the middle and later innings of each of the first two contests. If Tucker is healthy enough, he's probably better out there. However, should he start games there, it won't be a surprise if he can't end them there. Keeping Kevin Alcántara on the roster is important; he can be a late-game defensive substitution. It probably won't be as simple as swapping Tucker for Alcántara, though. It's more likely that the Cubs would pinch-run for Tucker after he reaches base, then slide Alcántara into his place defensively in the following half-inning. The pinch-runner might be more of a specialist.

Tactical Pieces (2)

• Moisés Ballesteros
• Billy Hamilton

There's no way the Cubs can allow Billy Hamilton to take an at-bat for them. And they won't. However, he can still run. He has baserunning instincts and veteran wile. If he showed them enough in a brief audition with Triple-A Iowa, he could well be the 15th man on the positional side of the roster. Ballesteros will be the 14th, and can serve as a counterpunching pinch-hit option behind Turner. He's also a candidate to take an at-bat from Kelly or Matt Shaw against certain righty hurlers, and in an extreme, do-or-die last at-bat scenario, they might want to have him to take over for Alcántara in a given spot.

There are few other candidates for the playoff roster, on the position-player side. Carlos Santana is still with the team, but he didn't show anything to suggest that he can help them on the field in this round. Owen Caissie isn't game-ready. Amaya is the one question mark, but again, he's probably another round or two from truly entering the equation. The dilemma is between having 14 or 15 hitters available. This is a prediction that they'll go with 15. Later today, we'll break down the pitchers who might make up the other side of the sheet.

 

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