Chicago Cubs Magic Numbers: How Well Do They Need to Play to Guarantee Home Playoff Games?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

At the end of the day Friday, the Cubs had a magic number of 13 to reach the postseason. Any combination of their wins and Reds or Giants losses adding up to 13 would get them into October. Almost as important, though, they had a magic number of 17 to beat out the Padres, which would effectively ensure that they host the Wild Card Series starting September 30. With 21 games to play, that seemed very doable.

Alas, since then, the Padres haven't lost; the Reds have only lost to the Padres; and the Giants are 1-2, while the Cubs are 0-3. Chicago's magic number is down to 11, but with only 18 games left on the schedule, they'd need to play .500 ball to completely indemnify themselves against a crazy hot streak by San Francisco or Cincinnati to close out the season. The Cubs and Reds still play four games in Cincinnati next week, which will be Chicago's chance to knock out that particular pursuer, but the Giants are beyond their control. San Francisco does play a Dodgers team that still needs to win to hold onto the NL West seven more times, so hopefully, the Cubs are safe in terms of simply making the playoffs.

Holding onto the top Wild Card berth, however, is a very different story. The Padres are heating up, and have a much easier remaining schedule than the Giants do. It wouldn't be at all surprising if San Diego went 11-7 or 12-6 the rest of the way, which would force the Cubs to win 10 or 11 of their final 18 to edge them out. That, too, is doable, but the three days without progress are a real problem. 

Daniel Palencia is done for the regular season, at least. Pete Crow-Armstrong was only available as the designated hitter Monday night, and he's woefully underqualified for that role. Kyle Tucker is hurt, again, and has missed a week despite being on the active roster the whole time. Seiya Suzuki isn't hitting well since the All-Star break. This team is limping, just when others are surging toward the finish line.

Making the playoffs is an important objective. The right goal coming into the season was to win the National League Central, and the Cubs have already failed in that endeavor. Part of the reason for that, though, is the dominance of the Brewers, so making the postseason and playing past the best-of-three Wild Card Series is a respectable way to salvage the season. At this moment, it doesn't feel automatic, but in a way, that's a good thing, too. It adds drama to the final few weeks of the season. Since the team is already playing for a consolation prize, it's nice that it will come with a fight down the stretch. Stumbling backward into October would be a deep disappointment; getting crucial wins just in time to make it would give at least the facade of a true pennant race.

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