Matt Shaw Is Proof of the Importance of Pulling the Baseball

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Hitting a baseball is really hard. The amount of things that have to go correctly in the moment for you to not only make contact with a pitch, but make solid contact, is almost mind-boggling. You have just a split second to not only diagnose what pitch is being thrown (maybe you can read the seams of the ball, or you've got eagle-eyed vision like Tony Gwynn and can see the grip as the pitcher throws it), but also whether the pitch is going to be a strike or a ball. Even then, you need correct mechanics, swing, and timing, and then you have to hope that the Baseball Gods are smiling down on you and that the exact moment of contact results in a hit that lands where a fielder isn't (or that Pete Crow-Armstrong isn't in CF). 

Here's the thing; Hitting a baseball is really hard, but not impossible. There are little tricks that hitters can use to stack the deck in their favor. These tricks can be having great mechanics, pure luck, having a good read on a pitcher's scouting report; there are many ways hitters can find a way to get just the extra little leverage they need to turn an out into a hit. The Cubs have seen a few of their hitters this year look to increase their bat speed—Pete Crow-Armstrong has used this to increase his home run power. 

One of the best ways to tweak the odds in your favor is an old coach's adage: pull the ball more. By pulling the ball more (and meeting the ball out in front of the plate) good things happen. It's easier to hit the ball hard, and it shortens the distance between where you hit it and where the fence is. And pulling the ball is a great way to hide other things you may not possess, such as elite bat speed. Hitters like Isaac Parades, Cody Bellinger, and TJ Friedl use below-average bat speed and extreme pull tendencies to great effect, and Matt Shaw has changed himself to more closely resemble these hitters. 

To understand his progress, we first need to peer into the past. Shaw, prior to this year, was someone who wasn't very interested in pulling the ball. Part of this was due to his rather unique set-up—being closed and toe-in pre-swing made it hard for him to open up on pitches. This can be reflected both in his 14th-percentile pull-rate in Triple-A during his first look in Iowa, and as well in his early-season spray chart. Back then, Shaw was willing to go equally to all fields, with a 31.7% pull rate, a 37.2% center field rate, and a 31.1% opposite field rate. While many of us were taught to "go the other way" as a youngster, this is just a poor way to hit at the MLB level; opposite field hits are less effective at the highest levels.

Let's watch Matt Shaw show a good example of this by peeking in a specific plate appearance of his on July 3 of this year. The game is currently tied, 0-0, in extra innings with the Cleveland Guardians. The struggling Cubs' rookie is at the plate facing fireballer Emanuel Clase with a runner on third base and less than two outs. The Guardians' closer hurls a 100mph heater on the inner-third of the plate. Shaw, to his credit, laces a barrel 377 feet to dead center 101.7mph off the bat. Shaw crushed this pitch for all it was worth and it ended up a fly-out.

Using Statcast, we can see that this swing had an expected batting average of .540, but Statcast does not account for directional hitting on these pitches. What we can do is search for all swings to dead center, at 101mph (+/- 1 mph) off the bat, at 377 feet to compare what other hitters did on these swings and we can only find six instances of this ball landing for a single, double, or triple over the last three seasons, and no ballpark would have been small enough for that to have gotten out. Overall, hitters hit .098 on similar swings (48 in total) to center field. Now, due to the game circumstance, a sac-fly was enough to get the win, so he didn't need to pull it, but it's still not the ideal outcome on that pitch most of the time. We'll come back to examine this swing in a moment.

 

One of the reasons that he wasn't able to pull the ball probably stems from his swing at the time. From March 18 (when the Cubs took the field against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Tokyo Dome) to the All-Star Break, Matt Shaw made initial contact with the baseball -2.8 inches in front of the plate. Yes, that means he was making his contact behind the front of the plate. This was 15th-deepest in baseball at the time. While other pull-heavy players make contact deeper than others (the aforementioned Cody Bellinger is one of them), one of the easiest ways to improve pull-rate is to move the initial point of contact. 

Since the All-Star Break, two things to note about Shaw and his approach is that he has greatly improved his pull%. He now pulls the ball 53.8% of the time, which ranks eighth in baseball. Previously, his pull rate would have ranked hm 141st (out of 155 qualified). This is a massive shift in approach. He is also making contact in front of the plate, ranking 71st of 237th in this metric, moving his point of contact from around two inches behind the front of the plate to over five inches in front of it. It's pretty obvious that to help create pull opportunities for their third baseman, the Cubs helped to create contact out in front of the plate (likely through the mechanical changes I have outlined in past articles). And it's paying off in a big way, as Shaw has posted the highest wRC+ of any third baseman since the mid-season pause.

To highlight the importance of pulling the baseball, let's go back and look at the sac-fly Shaw had against Clase from above.  However, this time, we'll be shifting from looking at similar batted balls to center field (remember, in three years, only six of those landed safely for a hit, and none were home runs) to looking at similarly hit baseballs to left field that were pulled (this excludes left-handed hitters who go the other way). If we look at swings that landed in the field of play on similarly struck balls, we find that only five balls hit at or around his exit velocity (give or take one mph) which also traveled 377 feet were hit for a single, double or a triple over the same span. Your first reaction may be to point out that this is less than those hit to center field over the same span. But, because the left field wall is so much shorter than its center field counterpart, we see that the number of home runs hit jumps from zero to 16, a massive increase. A home run in this situation may not have changed the outcome, but a home run in most others very well could. Simply hitting the ball to left field in a similar fashion increased league batting average from .098 to .808 alone. This is why you want to pull the baseball—good things tend to happen. 

Pulling the baseball can also help to hide other aspects of a hitter's game; the Cubs' third baseman does not show elite, or even above-average, swing speed. Swing speed usually goes hand in hand with power, and while he has begun hitting home runs in droves, his bat speed remains under 70mph even in August. TJ Friedl, Isaac Parades and Cody Bellinger all have bat speeds within one mph of what Shaw does, and all three have hit very well this year, due in large part to their significant pull%. Shaw is using the same concept to hide mediocre exit velocities and swing speeds. 

Finally, we can see this reflect in swing-decisions made by Shaw on a daily basis. While it's true that he has always been more willing to swing at inside pitches, where he is swinging has shifted, from up-and-in to more middle-middle. Swinging at pitches over the heart of the plate is just a good strategy for anyone, and when you add in pulling the baseball to it, it becomes a lethal combination.

Hitters who swing at pitches identified as "over the heart" have a .436 wOBA on the year (on balls in play), and pulling those pitches increases their wOBA to .562. Conversely, hitting pitches even in the best zones to center or opposite field drops their wOBA to .357. In other words, it's the difference from being Riley Greene (who has a .357 wOBA on the year) to being almost .100 points better than Aaron Judge. Riley Greene is a good hitter, but Aaron Judge is the baddest man on the planet, and hitters who pull pitchers over the heart outpace him by a massive amount.  It's not surprising that all of these good things have helped Shaw find success hitting against major league pitching.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Cubs deserve a mountain of credit for how they have handled their young hitter this season, and Matt Shaw deserves a mountain of credit for being open to change when he was in the midst of being humbled by the best pitching the planet has to offer. Both parties were able to identify issues and incrementally work through them.

He's made strides defensively, mechanically, and approach-wise. How good can he be? It's hard not to start thinking about the ceiling. Could he be a Gold-Glove-caliber third baseman who hits 20% better than league average? Is he their own version of Alex Bregman? I'm not going to claim to know just how good it can get. But the one thing I am confident in saying is that the Cubs have a cornerstone type of a player for their team because players who are willing to listen and have the drive to get better are the ones who are always one step ahead of their competition. They continue to stack the deck in their favor, and the Cubs' youngster has all the hallmarks of the type of grinder who will not accept defeat. 

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Have you noticed the changes in Matt Shaw's approach? What kind of a ceiling do you think he has moving forward? Let us know in the comments below!

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[Victor Reichman]

I remember how panicked the Front Office was in trying to sign a 3rd baseman to supplant Shaw. I posted that it would be a huge mistake to give up on him and have to give up either Cassie or Alcantra or other top prospects.

Matt Shaw will have ups and downs at the plate. But right now, he and Hoerner are playing Gold Glove defense and both have saved runs. Matt has been outstanding on D. There is no reason to search for a 3rd baseman as we potentially have a great one.

His offense and Hoerner's have solidified the Cubs lately.