Justin Turner Hasn't Lost the Fight with Father Time Quite Yet

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Justin Turner's time in a Cub uniform has been met with a good amount of ire from fans in online circles. Groans and moans are abound regardless of what platform you chose to frequent every time his name pops up in a lineup. A large contingency of Cubs fans had become so fed-up they'd rather have seen Michael Busch hit against southpaws than Turner. A quick glance at Justin Turner's FanGraphs page will likely confirm those biases about the season he has had; his wRC+ has him around 30% under league average, and he's running a negative fWAR on the season. Without diving deeper, it'd be pretty easy to feel justified in those complaints. I'm usually a strong advocate for using wRC+ and fWAR as a way to determine value, but for once, I'm going to go against the grain and say that Turner has been better than both those stats suggest he's been. I feel as though these full-season numbers bury the lede on Turner's season; he's actually been pretty useful. 

The Cubs signed Justin Turner, first and foremost, to hit left-handed pitching and to be a complement to Michael Busch in the lineup. That's actually a role that he's excelled at that this season. On the year (as of this writing), the 40-year-old has put up a 122 wRC+ with a triple-slash line of .291/.333/.468 against southpaws. While it's true that his 13 wRC+ against RHP leaves tons to be desired, much of those PA's were during a time period early in the year where a Seiya Suzuki injury and Matt Shaw's struggles forced the Cubs into a situation where they were playing him outside of his best use case. Turner's 122 wRC+ against LHP is the tenth-best for first baseman (min. 70 PA's) on the season against lefties. The reality is that he's been everything the Cubs could ask from him in that aspect. 

What may be most impressive about his season, though is that he's managed to find a role at his ripe age of 40. You may not have noticed it, but MLB hitters are not sticking around as much as they have in the past. Foolish Baseball, a lovely baseball-centered YouTube channel, recently explored the phenomenon showcasing how few hitters are sticking around post age-35 league-wide. While Turner doesn't play enough to qualify for a batting title, he is the only one of two hitters above the age of 40 to have even a single plate appearance on the year. And while he doesn't hit LHP as well as Paul Goldschmidt (who has a wRC+ over 220 against lefties), he's hit them better than anyone else over the age of 36 on the year. 

So, while it's true that he's no longer the middle-of-the-order monster he used to be, and that his 2025 season started quite poorly, he's managed to turn the tide in the eternal fight against the Grim Reaper of Baseball: time. I will admit that after his poor April, I too wondered if Turner was a victim of Father Time and if his career was coming to a close in front of our eyes.

The one thing Turner would do regardless of his performance was give you a professional at-bat—as in, he was always making good swing choices—but beyond that, there were some red flags in his game early that made me pause about his future. Many of the telltale signs of decline were there: diminished numbers in his hard-hit%, exit velocity, and swing speed. Impressively, Turner has found a bit of the fountain of youth; his average bat speed has gone (comparatively) through the roof. Since Statcast started tracking bat speed in 2023, Turner's swing speed is currently the highest on record despite being one of the eldest statesmen to take a swing in Major League Baseball this season.

Coinciding with the increase in swing speed, the first baseman has seen his contact quality jump as well. Over his last 60 plate appearances, Turner's hard-hit% has increased 11% over his season average, his barrel% has jumped around 7%, and his exit velocity is within spitting distance of  90mph on average. Not only that, but he's seen a significant uptick in launch angle. So, to recap: he's hitting the ball harder, better, in the air more and with increased bat speed. You don't need me to tell you that all of these are good things.

The cause of Justin Turner's better batted ball quality appears to have been accomplished by tweaking his batting stance and where he makes contact with the baseball. Turner started the season very open, sitting at around 25° pre-swing and keeping his feet around 16.7 inches apart. Turner has always had an open stance with a big stride; this is fairly normal for the slugger. Due to a handful of factors, however, an issue with Turner early in the season was that he simply wasn't catching the ball out in front of the plate, which is where you want to be making initial contact with the baseball. You can see Turner's set up and stride during the month of April below.

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Looking at Turner in August, we can find subtle, but noticeable changes. First, Turner's feet pre-swing at slightly changed; a little less open, now at 19° and closer together, now at 13.3 inches apart. He's also one inch closer to the front of the box; he's still very deep, but just a little closer. This has had profound impact, however, as it's allowed Turner's front foot to land further in front of the plate, allowing him to catch the ball out in front more. Hitting the ball in front of the plate is a good thing; it allows for a hitter to access their power more, to pull the ball easier, and to simply be on time. Add this change in with his newfound faster swing, and it's not hard to see how he's staving off the eternal battle just a little longer.

So, sure, Justin Turner's FanGraphs page paints a story of a replacement player who has been almost 30% worse than league average offensively on the year. I don't want to discount that first part of the season—Turner was a lead anchor in the lineup and was not helping, either against LHP or RHP. I also don't want to make him seem like a hero; he has essentially been worthless against right-handed arms this year, and his use case currently is quite specific.

But, if we go a bit beyond the box scores and add some context, we can see that Turner's done what he was brought here to do: hitting lefties at a productive clip. He's done so by making micro-adjustments at the plate which has resulted in some of his best batted ball data in years. It's easy to groan when we see his name in the lineup, thinking that he's no more than a glorified cheerleader, but he's a useful person to have on the bench and to hit (exclusively, it seems) against LHP. His 122 wRC+ dwarfs the 50 wRC+ Busch has against lefties on the year, so he has earned his spot in the lineup against them. With MLB rosters expanding to 26 players in recent seasons, you can have a specialized glass-cannon like Turner on the team, especially if you can offset it with all of the versatility that someone like Willi Castro brings to the table. There is lots of blame to spread around with the Cubs' recent lack of offensive production, but Justin Turner doesn't appear to be the anchor he once was; he has use and purpose in this lineup, and for that to continue to be true to at age 40 is mighty impressive. Father Time will eventually defeat Turner, but he won't go down without a fight... he's going to go down swinging. 

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Have you noticed the improvements Turner has made on the season? Let us know in the comment section below! 

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[Billy62]

This winter when the Cubs signed Turner I liked the deal. It was not a lot of money, and if he could hit like he had done in the past, I did not really see a downside to the addition of a 40-year old. I thought he would play at least part time and would impart his wisdom on the kids coming up. I envisioned him getting a few more at-bats than he currently is getting. Its hard to stay fresh with so few at-bats, but he has shown that he still has a little power left and can still provide the clutch hit from time to time. I realized when he was signed that this was only going to be one season, but I am not sure if we are going to see a few more clutch hits out of Justin.