Breaking Down the Cubs' Season-Defining Showdown with Milwaukee

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Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Anyone who has stopped off for a perusal of the goods at Mars Cheese Castle can inform you of the similarities between the reluctant neighbor cities of Chicago and Milwaukee. They share a lake, whose beaches are often teeming with revelers, fitness buffs, and foodies alike. But, more than just their gastronomic pursuits, the two cities share an eternally burning passion for their baseball teams. For the better part of a decade, the North Siders' northern siblings have enjoyed the sweet taste of division championships. Boasting a loaded lineup of some serious offensive heft, this was to be the year for Craig Counsell and his Cubs to claim their first full-season division crown since 2017. With a mystifying second-half slump, and a historic run of victories for Milwaukee, the Cubbies are staring down their last chance at claiming the NL Central. The Brewers' big boulder is standing in the way, do the Cubs have enough strength to move it?

Before the All Star Break, the North Siders were such the envy of their division rivals that running into fans of opposing clubs invoked another unsolicited history lesson about the Cubs' curses, not a check of the standings. Leading the majors in several key offensive categories such as runs per game, the Cubs boasted an unspoken sense of confidence that no order was too tall. Then, the post-All-Star-break stretch of the season commenced, sparking an unprecedented run of victories from the Milwaukee Brewers that not only caught the rest of league off guard, but literally put food on the table for residents of Southeastern Wisconsin. Listen, the Crew's dominance is no fluke: They play the type of baseball our middle school coaches would fawn over. Milwaukee plays one of the most fundamentally sound styles of baseball you're likely to find. They field incredibly well, produce runs with timely hitting, and have lights out pitching. On the Cubs' side, if their offense was their main power source, starting pitching is their backup generator. If the Cubbies can generate enough of what made them a contender in the first place, it will go a long way in restoring comfort in the minds of those thinking about their return to the playoffs. 

Heading into this five-game set, the Chicago Cubs sit a full 8.0 games back of the Brewers for first place in the NL Central, and are practically tied with the San Diego Padres for the first Wild Card spot. The news has been close to nothing but bad for the Cubs for what seems like a lifetime, but at the outset of this showdown with the Brewers, two key things are true:

1. The Cubs, for all their struggles, still have not been swept in any series since the pre-Opening Day Tokyo Series against the Dodgers.

2. Any permutation of outcomes versus Milwaukee in their five-game series, outside of a sweep, keeps the Cubs' heads above water. If they were to somehow best the Brewers in all five games, they could essentially cut Milwaukee's lead in half with nearly a month and a half remaining in the regular season. 

Alright, I hope that quelled some of the "sky is falling" members of the fanbase who needed to hear that all, is in fact, not lost. I think the fact that it could be is what will finally ignite the fire in this team to push them back into favor among the postseason movers and shakers. 

At almost each position, the North Siders match up favorably with the Brew Crew. Milwaukee is one of the worst slugging teams in baseball and overall, Chicago has been one of the best. Before cooling off, Carson Kelly showed off some power in his bat and though he has just 13 homers right now, has been just as defensively stout as William Contreras. Before Miguel Amaya's prolonged stint on the IL, followed by the devastating re-aggravation of his injury, the Cubbies' boasted the best catchers in the game. Both clubs have dazzling infields that prevent offenses from gaining the upper hand or from balls touching grass. An emphasis on sure-handed throws, and a strong baseball IQ, looms large in this contest. 

Leading up to the trade deadline, the loudest cries from Cubs fans across the globe was to bring in an imposing starting pitcher. What they got was righty Michael Soroka from the Nationals. But not for long. In his first start for the Cubbies, Soroka was forced to leave the game after just two innings with shoulder discomfort. The starting rotation, which has been in flux for much of the year, had to step up for the North Siders, and it has. Emerging as a legitimate Rookie of the Year Candidate, Cade Horton's big league career has arrived. His ability to consistently go six innings, control of his fastball, and 3.07 ERA has nearly canceled out all other woes facing the club's starting rotation.

Now, the Brewers' team ERA of 3.64 is bolstered by the club's prolific offense, plating 5.21 runs per game. At 5.02 runs per game, Chicago is still up there with the game's best. Both squads can recover from a blow-up inning, but for the Cubs' sake, it's best not to have one. From Freddy Peralta to Brandon Woodruff, the Crew doesn't give opposing squads much to work with, so the Cubbies must show up at their most opportunistic. 

Faster than a swipe from Pete Crow-Armstrong or Sal Frelick, the Cubs and Brewers collision course with one another has led to this ultimate moment. The preparation, the performance on the field, and the optics of how this series plays out stands to tremendously influence the perception of these two squads respective campaigns. 

Long removed from witnessing the likes of Rafael Ortega and Frank Schwindel suit up in Cubs uniforms, Chicago has its biggest opportunity yet to bury some of the ghosts of its recent past. The Cubbies are in the moment, but will they seize it?

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