Dansby Swanson Has Lost All Semblance of Plate Discipline

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

As we come upon the completion of Dansby Swanson's third full season as a member of the Chicago Cubs, we know enough about certain areas of his offensive game to draw firm conclusions. 

The most sweeping observation about Swanson as a hitter is that there is a month-to-month variance in his performance. He's prone to incredibly torrid stretches of play that are quickly wiped out by the time he spends on the opposite end of the spectrum. Much of his inherent streakiness is borne out of a need to dial in on fastballs as a foundational component in his success. When he manages the zone and has a keen eye in matters of pitch type, he finds success. When he doesn't, he's generally expanding the zone in favor of only that pitch or just loses his grip on it altogether. 

We're currently seeing a version of Dansby Swanson that is entirely of the latter variety. 

Swanson's 2025 has been a disappointment on that side of the ball, even by his modest standards. His slash includes an average of .250, an on-base percentage of .297, and a slugging percentage of .415. His strikeout rate, at 28.0 percent, is the highest of his career, while a 6.6 percent walk rate represents his lowest. He's managed just enough power (.165 ISO) to stay relevant in a stat like wOBA (.308), but he's very obviously being pinned down by a bit of a mess in the approach department.

It's something that's very easily reflected in his strikeout and walk numbers alone, on a month-to-month basis: 

• March/April: 29.1 K%, 6.7 BB%
• May: 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%
• June: 25.0 K%, 5.8 BB%
• July: 32.7 K%, 5.1 BB%
• August: 36.0 K%, 0.0 BB%

Since May, the strikeout rate has been steadily increasing while the walk rate has decreased. Say whatever you want about a smaller sample through ten days in August (as of this writing), the fact that Swanson has yet to draw a walk in the month speaks to the absence of control he's been able to demonstrate over the strike zone the longer the year has worn on. 

It's not a complicated puzzle to solve, either. Swanson has been aggressive to a fault. Here is his swing rate between the months in 2025: 

Swanson is at a 58 percent swing rate this month. That's the highest of any Cub and three points higher than even Pete Crow-Armstrong. Worse yet, Swanson's chase habits have spun out of control: 

Like the swing rate, the chase rate has risen steadily over the course of the season. His current August rate, at 36.8, trails only Willi Castro among regulars and is 10 points higher than Crow-Armstrong. When you're sitting that far ahead of Crow-Armstrong, the actual poster child for aggression at the plate, in swings and chase, there's a rather serious problem developing. 

Earlier in the year, we noted that Swanson was dialing in on fastballs to the point where he was expanding the zone in pursuit of them. He recognized fastball out of the hand, and it didn't matter where it was landing in the zone. He was swinging either way. That's not entirely what's happening this time around, as Swanson is swinging at nearly 80 percent of off-speed pitches. It's one thing to be dedicated to a specific pitch type to a fault, but another entirely to ramp up the aggression on a pitch whose flavor doesn't historically lend itself to positive outcomes for the individual hitter. 

Where this is really biting Swanson is in the RISP game. The Cubs, as a collective, have been rather bad with runners in scoring position lately. It's one of the primary factors in driving their offense into the ground and leading to this gap with Milwaukee in the National League Central standings. But Swanson has been an affront to the lineup in such situations. 

Among regulars, only Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have more plate appearances with runners in scoring position than Swanson's 129. His slash in those moments is .174/.227/.261. His wRC+ is a mere 33. The only names below him on the overall leaderboard in the latter department are ones like Gage Workman, Jon Berti, Nicky Lopez, and... Colin Rea. It certainly doesn't help—and is very much indicative of the problem at large—that his strikeout rate balloons to 33.3 in those 129 opportunities (five points higher than Crow-Armstrong, for what it's worth). 

Last week, we discussed the problems permeating the Cubs' lineup in matters of the approach. A handful of key hitters have been losing their grip on their own respective approaches, leading to a sharp decline in quality contact. The difference is that Dansby Swanson has never really had a grasp of it this year. We wrote about strikeout numbers piling up in April. The issues there have only compounded and created a spiral from which Swanson has never given himself an opportunity to emerge. 

That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that it can be fixed before the regular season's end. With the other regulars, there's at least a baseline to which they can return. Swanson's baseline now exists as a distant memory which not only leaves him as a sustained weak link in the lineup barring a significant change, but a possibly untenable presence in it beyond the remainder of this season.

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[Jeff Alson]

An illuminating article. Swanson's .261 slugging percentage with RISP speaks for itself, and with 129 PA, there is no small sample size excuse. It has clearly gotten into his head, and Counsell has to permanently move him to 9th in the order.

On the other hand, Hoerner is the one Cub who has proven that he can provide quality at bats with RISP. Accordingly, I would put him at 4 against lefties and at 5 against righties. What you lose with power, you more than compensate by with many more run-producing hits, especially when the infield is in with less than 2 outs, and far fewer strikeouts.

[DK1230]

It's not just Swanson.  You cannot win with an offense that consistently swings as much as this offense does.  Way too many first-pitch attack outs.  Watch Milwaukee's offense and see what consistent offense looks like.....they don't swing nearly as much.  In fact, this isn't just a Cubs problem.  MLB teams all swing way, way, way too much given the brutal control of most MLB pitchers.  It's an epidemic.

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, DK1230 said:

It's not just Swanson.  You cannot win with an offense that consistently swings as much as this offense does.  Way too many first-pitch attack outs.  Watch Milwaukee's offense and see what consistent offense looks like.....they don't swing nearly as much.  In fact, this isn't just a Cubs problem.  MLB teams all swing way, way, way too much given the brutal control of most MLB pitchers.  It's an epidemic.

The Cubs swing at 32.8% of first pitches, while the Brewers swing at 29.5%. The Cubs aren't leading the league in first pitch swinging, in fact, they're 11th. Also important to note, they have the fifth most first-pitch strikes thrown to them - it makes sense that teams who get first pitch strikes swing at them. 

There is no direct correlation between scoring runs and swinging at the first pitch. The Cubs lead the lead in runs per game and are 11th in first pitch swinging. The Brewers are second in runs scored and are 26th in first pitch swings. Arizona is 6th in runs scored and 27th in first pitch swings, the Phillies are 6th in runs scored and 2nd in first pitch swings, and the Tigers are 8th in runs scored and 10th in first pitch runs scored. They're pockmarked around. You're creating a narrative that the Cubs are somehow an egregious first-pitch swinging team when they are not, nor is there any evidence to suggest that first pitch swing% and runs scored are connected. 

Beyond that, guess what team watches the most strikes in the league? Milwaukee. Both teams get virtually the same amount of strikes and makes virtually the same amount of contact. 

And a good reminder, The Brewers aren't some magical, super consistent offense either. They had the 20th best wRC+ through May 31st, which means they were straight up bad offensively through the first 1/3rd of the season. They're hot right now, absolutely! But you're creating stories to explain events that don't check out. The Brewers have been no more consistent than the Cubs, swinging at first pitch strikes does not correlate with runs scored, and the Brewers stand and watch way more strikes than the Cubs do which balance everything out anyways. 

What is happening right now is far more to do with the Brewers having just a really awesome run of results. They've gotten some positive variance, they're getting some good results and it happens. The Cubs at the same time have had the opposite. But the theory you propose here has no underlying data to support it.