Seiya Suzuki is an Overloaded Chess Piece. Can Cubs Provide Him Relief?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

If the season ended today, Pete Crow-Armstrong would make a remarkable bit of baseball history. Right now, the highest slugging average ever for a player with an on-base percentage under .310 in a qualifying season is .531, by slugger Tony Armas of the 1984 Red Sox. Juan González slugged .529 in 1992, and Khris Davis slugged .524 in 2016. Crow-Armstrong, however, is slugging .554, despite his .303 on-base percentage. He's having the best power season ever, among players without any semblance of plate discipline—but, of course, that's a backhanded compliment.

Specifically, Crow-Armstrong poses a major problem for the offense, because he's settled in as the regular cleanup hitter but he's an almost automatic out against lefties. He still gets to considerable power against southpaws, with 16 extra-base hits in 135 plate appearances, but his OBP against them is a ghastly .235. Obviously, he's been very good—from one end of the slash line to the other—against righties, but against lefties, he's killing them. Practically speaking, power and defense and even baserunning value be damned, there is no such thing as a playable hitter with a .235 OBP.

Craig Counsell, therefore, needs to shield Crow-Armstrong from lefties as best he can. That, as much as the sheer power Crow-Armstrong has produced this year, motivated Counsell to move him to the place behind Seiya Suzuki in the batting order every day. Suzuki is the punisher. He's the one who makes a manager think twice about deploying a tough lefty against Kyle Tucker and Crow-Armstrong. Suzuki, who has taken an approach only slightly less aggressive than Crow-Armstrong's this year, is batting .261/.344/.530 against lefties. Because he's there, and because Tucker's splits usually aren't especially wide anyway, managers have every incentive to wait until after Suzuki to swap in their lefty. Moving Michael Busch up to the top of the order, between what are usually a couple of right-handed bats at the bottom of the lineup card and the Tucker-Suzuki danger zone, was partially justified by the fact that it puts two hitters between Busch (.190/.261/.317 against lefties) and Crow-Armstrong, instead of just one if they're batting fourth and sixth.

This version of the lineup against righties limits the damage Crow-Armstrong's vulnerability to lefties can do, as best Counsell currently can. However, it doesn't do enough—because it can't. The league knows Crow-Armstrong will give them an out three times in every four trips if they just match him up left-on-left, and while Suzuki might deter them from going to their favorite southpaw early, they have no reason to hesitate about doing it once it's actually Crow-Armstrong's turn.

Right now, Counsell is trying to use a mixture of Carson Kelly, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ as protection for Crow-Armstrong. It's not enough; it's not nearly enough. Firstly, names matter in cases like these. Managers know the numbers, and receive them from their front offices, but they don't make decisions solely based on them. To spook them even slightly when they have a chance of setting up a .235 OBP matchup, you need a player whom they fear based on reputation and track record, rather than just theory. Kelly doesn't meet that threshold, and anyway, his breakout season has hinged more on hammering same-handed pitchers (.952 OPS against righties) than on attacking lefties (.760). Swanson is a strong hitter against lefties, but not such a strong one that he makes up for the free out teams get by swapping in a lefty to take down the guy in front of him. Happ has always been better batting left-handed, and remains so, and worse, everyone knows it.

Could that lead the Cubs to be more aggressive than we'd expect in the trade market for Eugenio Suárez, or any other right-handed bat who could hammer lefties for them? Maybe; maybe not. Firstly, Suzuki and Tucker have slumped lately, which has exaggerated the impact of the weak link that is Crow-Armstrong any time a lefty comes in. When they're right, it doesn't matter as much if Crow-Armstrong makes a quick and empty out in such matchups. Secondly, while Kelly, Swanson, Happ, Nico Hoerner, Justin Turner and even the eventually returning Miguel Amaya are imperfect as lefty-mashing punishers behind Crow-Armstrong, they're much better options than many teams in a similar situation would have.

Thirdly, the right target might not be out there, unless it be Suárez himself. Turner isn't going anywhere, so a right-hitting first baseman like Carlos Santana (technically a switch-hitter, but great against lefties) or Yandy Díaz is unlikely to come aboard. Righty outfield bats Taylor Ward, Harrison Bader and Ramón Laureano are each having good enough seasons to help in the middle of the order, but it would be hard to justify (or sell in the clubhouse) starting any of them over Happ against righties or pinch-hitting for him every time a lefty comes in. Bader could actually be a platoon partner for Crow-Armstrong himself, but it just doesn't seem practical or realistic that he would enter key games at the expense of the team's best defender, come September or October. Only at third base is there even a halfway open door to an upgrade who also bats right-handed.

Finally, there's the upside and the long-term benefits of standing pat to consider. The Cubs hoped Turner would deliver punch against lefties, allowing them to sit Busch more often and softening the pain of any exposure Crow-Armstrong would suffer. All along, though, they've also had the option of getting rid of either Vidal Bruján or Jon Berti and calling up Kevin Alcántara, a righty-hitting center fielder who is batting .338/.427/.615 against lefties this year. That would mean sitting Crow-Armstrong against lefties and/or pinch-hitting for him when lefty relievers come in, but it's a compelling potential move—provided they don't trade Alcántara this week.

Since even bringing in Suárez would eat into Matt Shaw's playing time, that has to be weighed in, too. It seems unlikely that Shaw will earn a place in the heart of the order, even against lefties and at the end of the season, but his recent surge is real and giving him everyday playing time has value of its own. He might hit lefties well enough to make an expensive external move feel foolish, anyway.

Right now, Suzuki is being asked to protect hitters in both directions in the batting order. Tucker's OPS against lefties this season would be the worst of his career, and Busch and Crow-Armstrong are downright bad against them. The Cubs need two or three righty sluggers who can thwart teams when they try to slice neatly through the lefty-laden heart of the lineup. However, they might need to find those alternatives and complementary pieces within their own ranks, rather than going out and trading for a righty bat.

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