Cubs Trade Rumors, One Week from MLB Trade Deadline: Dylan Cease, Merrill Kelly vs. Zac Gallen, Outfielders on Radar

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Cubs "Strongly Prefer" Merrill Kelly to Zac Gallen
The Diamondbacks are no longer walking the fence; they're likely to sell impending free agents over the next seven days. The Cubs are interested suitors, but while they'd be amenable to either at various costs, sources said the team would be more open to giving up what Arizona seems to want for Merrill Kelly than what they're asking for Zac Gallen.

While Gallen's recent track record suggests a higher ceiling, the final two months of a fierce pennant race are a tough time to try to fix a struggling newcomer. Though less superficially impressive, Kelly has been consistently above-average, and he's struck out 24.2% of opposing batters this year. His underwhelming velocity is, obviously, not disqualifying for the Cubs, who remain one of the teams with the softest-tossing starters. There's also a sense that Kelly's style and recent adjustments better suit the Cubs' pitching philosophy, a source said, making him a more seamless potential addition to the rotation right away.

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What Would the Cubs Landing Dylan Cease Look Like?
While it's a major longshot, there really is one possible sequence of moves that could bring Dylan Cease back to the organization that initially drafted him, sources with knowledge of teams' thinking say. The Chicago Cubs are interested in Cease, but at first blush, the fit between them and the San Diego Padres looks fraught. Both teams are contending in the National League, and in fact, they could end up going head-to-head in a Wild Card or Division Series this fall. Both have farm systems too thin and checkbooks too closely balanced to fill all their needs at this deadline without doing something creative, or something desperate. It would seem difficult for them to help each other out.

However, sources who have played out the scenario say there's a narrow possibility of what would be a blockbuster series of moves by the Cubs. If Chicago could extract Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks at a reasonable prospect cost, they might pivot and trade outfielder/DH Seiya Suzuki to San Diego for Cease and a prospect. That would be a shocking move, and it's very unlikely, but it gives an idea of what acquiring Cease might look like. The Padres need to either move Cease's money to free themselves up to make other improvements, or fill one of their key needs in the act of trading him. This would be the latter, as the team badly needs help in left field and Suzuki is having a terrific offensive season. Unlike Cease, he's also under contract for 2026.

Suzuki makes more ($18 million) than Cease ($13.75 million) this year, and is owed another $18 million next season. The Cubs would need to include cash in the trade, or take on a second contract along with Cease, because San Diego's budget is inflexible. However, A.J. Preller is always interested in moves that net him a bit of extra team control, and his payroll headaches get a bit less severe this winter, with a handful of contracts expiring. For the Cubs, the upside of this double maneuver would be that acquiring Suárez would improve the lineup and make space for either Moisés Ballesteros or Owen Caissie to work into the mix, without blocking Matt Shaw. Shaw and either of the two young, left-handed bats would indirectly platoon with one another, with Suárez playing third against right-handed opposing starters and DH against left-handed ones. Meanwhile, the prospect included along with Cease would balance out the cost of trading from the farm system to land Suárez.

Remember that, when the Cubs traded Mark Leiter Jr. last summer, they acquired Nate Pearson in a separate trade. They gave up Hunter Bigge in the deal that brought in Isaac Paredes, but in the Leiter trade, they got back Jack Neely. When they can, they like to balance present and future, whether they're buying or selling. General manager Carter Hawkins has emphasized the idea of allocating resources in certain directions while maintaining a present-future balance, rather than embracing the traditional idea of letting the future be degraded by the scramble to win now, one source said.

This pair of moves would accomplish that, but of course, it's a difficult thing to do. The Cubs would be motivated by the massive increase in upside they'd get from adding Cease to their playoff rotation, but they'll have lots of competition for Suárez and the Padres might ultimately balk at what Chicago would demand in order to give up Suzuki for Cease. For what it's worth, Suzuki did list San Diego as one destination he would accept when the team talked to him about the possibility of a trade over the winter, sources confirmed. That doesn't automatically mean he would accept a deal in July, but that particular hurdle probably wouldn't be the one that thwarts a move.

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Cubs Have Checked in on Outfielders
In the wake of a series in which Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker each missed a game with a sore knee, it's a bit clearer than it was before that the Cubs could use a bit more outfield depth. Because Suzuki has spent most of the season at DH and plays the outfield when he plays defense at all, the team didn't make a backup center fielder a priority this winter. Now, though, the team is quietly shopping for a supplemental piece in that vein. Sources said they checked in with the Twins on Willi Castro, but also on Harrison Bader.

Castro has been a popular trade target on the Cubs-loving internet for some time, with a profile roughly similar to that of Vidal Bruján (switch-hitting utility man with speed, but inconsistent plate discipline) but much, much better (more power, especially). Bader, however, makes more sense than ever. Ian Happ's struggles this year make the notion of spelling him against some left-handed hurlers more appealing. Bader is also a direct potential platoon guy for Crow-Armstrong, who has an execrable .235 OBP against southpaws this year, and would be a good backup plan for Tucker, to boot.

On a one-year deal worth roughly $6.5 million, Bader, 31, is hitting .251/.330/.435 this year, and he's added elite defense in his first extended time as a corner outfielder in the majors. Chicago could have competition for him from teams with more of an everyday need at that spot, but the fit is undeniable. Twins teammates and coaches, including and especially manager Rocco Baldelli, have also raved about Bader's role in the clubhouse.

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There's plenty of chatter behind the scenes, but so far, the trade deadline period has yielded no major action. It's hard not to feel like the Cubs are leaving it too late, especially since they play what could be a pivotal series against the Brewers in the days just before the deadline. For now, though, the team itself is trying to balance their ambitious ideas and the rising urgency of their needs with the understanding that being patient will probably yield the most helpful (or least regrettable) deals. When the dam breaks, they just need to be ready, and they're doing their best to lay all the groundwork needed for that.

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