Chicago Cubs Prospect Owen Caissie Red-Hot in Triple-A, Which Could Change Team's Trade Deadline Plans

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

 

Top Cubs outfield prospect Owen Caissie is having the kind of month that liberates even the most blocked prospects. He had five hits Tuesday night in Louisville, including two doubles and a long home run. The latter was his 20th of the season, more than he hit all year in 2024. It was just the latest big night in a string of them recently. Since June 1, Caissie is batting .339/.436/.740, with 13 home runs. He's struck out just 25.5% of the time and walked in 13.4% of his plate appearances. That kind of hot streak isn't so much a hot streak, as a completed practicum on the desk of one's adviser. It's Graduation Day in the form of a stat line.

That doesn't mean that Caissie has a bulletproof claim to future All-Star selections or MVP trophies, of course. He's not old, even for a prospect, but nor is he all that young for his level. He turned 23 earlier this month. He's nearing 900 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, and that's after spending an entire year at Double A, too. After a patient and lengthy apprenticeship, he's ready for the majors, but teams have consistently downgraded him slightly on two bases:

1. The slow pace of his progress up the ladder; most top-100 prospects figure out a level and get the nod from their organization to be challenged at the next one faster than Caissie has.
2. His strikeout rate. For much of his pro career, he's flirted with 30% strikeout rates, and when any hitter whiffs that often in the minors, teams (and their evaluation models) take notice.

Again, though, Caissie's power is starting to show up so consistently that strikeouts can be a welcome price to pay. Just as importantly: he's striking out less often lately, and dramatically so.

Despite the reservations so many scouts and analysts have had, then, Caissie's stock is on the rise. He's about to break into the major leagues, one way or another, and his performance lately (paired with a good overall track record and his scouting report) has him trending toward a new echelon of prospect value. Even a few weeks ago, Caissie was not a viable centerpiece in a major trade. Right now, he might be.

From the Cubs' perspective, the timing couldn't be better. It wasn't (and isn't) just Caissie about whom other teams raised real questions in early trade discussions, and some of Jed Hoyer's top targets seemed like they could be out of reach. Now that Caissie has scouts talking in more glowing terms ("he's turned a corner down there," said one evaluator from an interested team after seeing him last week), he gets a different set of conversations started.

The most interesting of those conversations centers around Edward Cabrera. The electric-armed Marlins righthander made his first start since July 11 on Tuesday night, after his elbow barked a bit in his final start before the All-Star break. The Cubs had a scouting presence in Miami to see him, and Cabrera was superb, holding the Padres to one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings. He struck out six and did not issue a walk. Chicago covets Cabrera, whom one league source called a "priority target" for them.

The Marlins have long been interested in Caissie, whom they almost acquired in a one-for-one deal that would have sent Jesús Luzardo to the Cubs this winter. Both teams ended up uneasy with the medicals in that deal, and they couldn't circle back to an agreement at the time, but sources said the relationship between the front offices was undamaged by the collapse of that transaction. 

Caissie still wouldn't be enough to land Cabrera on his own. Whereas Luzardo was just two years from free agency and was coming off an uneven season last winter, Cabrera has three years of control beyond this fall, and this has been his breakout campaign. He's also made some major changes this year, which help explain his surge in success and which we can break down in greater detail here if the Cubs do end up acquiring him. For now, suffice it to say that Cabrera's stock has risen, too, and that any deal for him would need to involve both Caissie and either Jefferson Rojas or Jaxon Wiggins.

That's a hefty price, of course. All three of those players are within the top five on our current Cubs Top Prospects list, and giving up two such players in a deal is hard—especially when one of them is already on the doorstep of the majors. A month ago, though, Caissie would not have been a sufficient headliner for a package to acquire a player with Cabrera's mixture of recent track record and upside. That he now gets you a foot in the door is a mark of important progress.

Since we're here, let's discuss a few other pitchers whom various sources say are on the Cubs' radar, along with Cabrera. The name of Rays starter Taj Bradley has popped up recently in some rumors, but all sources I talked to were skeptical that any move is forthcoming there. Tampa reliever Pete Fairbanks is a much more plausible target. 

As recently as this weekend, sources close to the situation indicated that there was momentum between the Cubs and the Royals regarding lefty Kris Bubic. Right now, though, the team is doing more background work and waiting to see what Bubic's next start looks like, after his velocity was down substantially in his first appearance of the second half. The Royals are another team who has been on the higher end with regard to Caissie, so if the Cubs want to make their dollar stretch on the trade market this summer, talking to both Kansas City and Miami about him makes sense.

Of course, some fans will hope that Caissie's breakout keeps him with the team, rather than shuffling him out the door. With Kyle Tucker hitting free agency this fall, there's a chance the Cubs will need to replace him in the corner outfield mix next year, and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ will both be free agents after 2026. Keeping Caissie would hedge some bets. If he stays hot and the right offer comes together, though, the safe bet is still that he's playing in the majors, somewhere other than Chicago, come mid-August.

 

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