Chicago Cubs Strength of Schedule Could Give Team Inside Track to Division Title

[Mitch Widmeier]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs faced their gauntlet right out of the gates this season. In the first month, Craig Counsell's club faced the Los Angeles Dodgers seven times, San Diego six times, Philadelphia three times and the Diamondbacks (a bit less formidable now than they seemed then) seven times. Even in early May, the Cubs began the month by facing Milwaukee, San Francisco, and the New York Mets. All three look like playoff teams.

Out of the All-Star break, things will change for the Cubs. After boasting a 57-39 record at the break, they're in prime position to capitalize. Per Tankathon, the Cubs are tied with the Houston Astros for the second-easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. Chicago's remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .482. Among the opponents that drove the number down are dates the Cubs still have with Colorado, the White Sox, Baltimore, Washington and 12 combined games left with Pittsburgh and Atlanta.

On the flip side of that, the Cubs still have a collective 14 tilts against Milwaukee and St. Louis. However, eight of those 14 will be at Wrigley Field. Those 14 games against the Brewers and Cardinals (and more specifically, the eight against Milwaukee) could very well settle the division.

The Cubs have the third-best record in baseball at the break, but are still only a game up on the Brewers. Milwaukee finished the first half on a tear, winning seven in a row—including a sweep of the Dodgers. Despite the slim lead, though, FanGraphs gives the Cubs a whopping 63.5% chance to win the National League Central. Why such favorable odds?

While the Cubs have the second-easiest schedule left, the Brewers are tied with Baltimore for the fourth-hardest remaining schedule. Milwaukee still has series left against the Dodgers, Phillies and Padres. All three have shown to be heavy hitters in the National League, and the Cubs have wrapped up all games against those three.

The eight games against the Cubs also shoots Milwaukee up the ladder in strength of schedule. All of that leads to FanGraphs giving the Cubs a commanding advantage in predicting who will win the division. 

If you don't want to consider one outlet to serve as the be-all and end-all, look at Baseball Reference. That site gives the Cubs a 70% chance to win the division opposed to just a 28% shot for the Brewers, though in that case, it's much less about strength of schedule and more about their assessed team strength. By the reckoning of Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS), the Cubs are the best team in baseball (1.2), so although the average quality of their remaining opponents (-0.1) is just 10th-worst in the league, they project to win the most games in the second half. Just keep in mind that (unlike FanGraphs's system) those aren't based on close assessments of each team's player-by-player individual talent, but rather on how they've each played over the last 100 games at a team level. It's flipping forward the Cubs' excellent first half less skeptically than other models would.

So which club could the Cubs face, if they make the postseason? Winning the division or falling short of that crown will determine that. If the playoffs started today, the Cubs and Dodgers would receive first-round byes. It would catapult Chicago directly to the National League Divisional Series.

However, the margins are razor-thin. Just like the Cubs only have a one-game lead over Milwaukee, they are also only a half game behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League. Winning the division and holding off whoever wins the National League East would assure the Cubs of a bye in the playoffs. Get jumped by Milwaukee and snag a Wild Card spot (or struggle enough to let the Phillies or Mets run by) and the bye evaporates.

Back to the current moment. Chicago would have the No. 2 seed in the National League if the postseason began right now, and it would face the winner of a series between the Phillies and the Padres. A lot can change between now and the end of September, but FanGraphs gives the Cubs a 94% chance to make the playoffs and a 40.3% shot to earn a bye.

Getting that extra rest to set up your rotation is always cherished. A weaker remaining schedule, blended with the vast majority of reports stating the Cubs will be big players at the trade deadline, puts them in the driver's seat to win the division. 

Eight games against the Brewers will carry a lot of weight, though, and an unorthodox five-game series in the middle of August will speak volumes as to who carries the torch in the division. Thanks to a rainout earlier in the season, the two will play five at Wrigley in four days, including a doubleheader to begin the series on August 18.

Regardless of how you believe the final chapter of this Cubs season will be written, 57-39 at the break and leading the division is something everyone would've signed up for back in March. Of all the numbers and all the percentages that can be digested, there's one that sticks out. According to Baseball Reference, the Cubs right now have the highest odds to win the World Series at 15.8%. Right behind the Cubs are the Detroit Tigers, at 13.3%.

Wouldn't that be something?

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